to be worried about coronavirus part 3

[peridito]

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

The UK are requiring two negative tests, a couple of days apart, before saying someone is clear.

With regards to those in China later testing positive again, it depends on how much the disease has spread and whether you can easily be reinfected too.

That's not (yet) an issue in the UK where there aren't many people infected. It might be in China.

But yes, I do think there is an issue with unreliable testing. I also think the UK authorities are aware of this and those who recover are being closely monitored after discharge anyway.

www.itv.com/news/2020-02-21/britons-on-coronavirus-hit-cruise-ship-diamond-princess-fly-uk/
Flight home delayed for Britons on coronavirus-hit cruise ship Diamond Princess

Despite testing negative to the virus in Japan, those on the evacuation flight will be taken straight to Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral for 14 days of quarantine.

Looks like in China those who are released from hospital are then being required to quarantine for 14 days at home and are then being tested regularly by officials at home. The reported patients are retesting as positive during this quarantine/retesting period. Officially a patient has been readmitted to hospital and it has been confirmed that there are other such cases.

So unfortunately (for us) it sounds as though their testing regime is far more rigorous than our two clear tests system.

If it’s like the other viral pcr tests then it will be a nasal/ throat swab. There can be errors in taking the swab, not enough virus to detect in the early days leading to false negatives. Usually it’s 3 clear tests on different days that would mean the patient is then clear enough to not infect others. I wonder if in China they just don’t have enough tests to test people several times, they certainly won’t have the capacity to hospitalise people with minor suspected illness who have tested negative but hopefully the quarantine at home will prevent further spread.

If anyone wants some GOOD news, this is one of the most significant news stories in the last ten years. Won't be reported as such. Important particularly if we have a massive epidemic and significant overuse of antibiotics with coronavirus.

amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/antibiotic-that-kills-drug-resistant-bacteria-discovered-through-ai?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Powerful antibiotic discovered using machine learning for first time
Team at MIT says halicin kills some of the world’s most dangerous strains

Its hard to say re travel etc given that the last time there were flu pandemics it was the 50s and 60s and the HIV pandemic was a very different thing.

Actually swune flu was a pandemic!

That's excellent news redtoothbrush, that's a big win.

According to BNO news a man is critical ill with COVID19 and respiratory failure in Italy. It seems that he never left the country, however has friends who came back from a holiday in China a few weeks ago.
Not sure if the friends were/are ill too.

Swine flu was a pandemic but it was much less dangerous than coronavirus is now (it was nasty, I know, as I experienced it myself). There was some confusion between swine flu and the much more virulent bird flu, which, as I remember, was around at about the same time. Thankfully, it never mutated to pass from person to person; it strictly only ever passed from birds to humans.

The cases in Italy are confirmed. Two cases, two more with symptoms being tested and 60 people quarantined. One of the cases is a school teacher.

OMG! A teacher! Worst nightmare!

Does anyone know if once a patient is considered critical, do they remain on the critical list until they are either recovered or dead or can they drop down to just being a case if they improve enough to not be critical but are not yet recovered?

OMG! A teacher! Worst nightmare

Not necessarily, considering what we know about the virus, and how it seems to bypass younger children, or at least manifest in a less severe way. I would say prisons / care homes and medical facilities would be a much worse environment.

I think the issue is that children are spreaders. They touch things frequently and they are not typically good at hand hygiene.

FourTeaFallOut

I haven't seen any mentions of people who are critical recovering, but it would be lovely to read some examples if there have been cases where it has happened.

HasaDigaEebowai

Ah yes, good point. I hadn't considered the PP meant the potential for spreading the virus, as apposed to children being unwell from it.

There might be though since the critical percentage has remained fairly steady at about 20% whilst the death rate is declining at 11% (although this is primarily due to the increasing number of cases being identified rather than a drop in the number of deaths)

I'm just trying to workout the Italian cases are in critical care. Initially the both the first two patients were in critical care, and now of 6, 3 are and it's extraordinarily high. But then I was thinking perhaps they are utilising critical care beds to isolate the patients but this would only be plausible now if it were possible to drop off the critical care list without being recovered or dead.

Sorry, I'm completely incoherent there.

13 new cases and two new deaths in Iran

This is all getting a bit concerning.

I’ve not been following it all very closely so would appreciate your advice.

My son’s friend is visiting family in Japan right now. Next week when back, he’s having a birthday party after school. It’s apparently still going ahead.

I know to an extent this is how long is a piece of string as it depends on many things, but would you send your child? Or avoid?

Before half-term, Japan wasn’t on the list of countries the school was asking people to self-quarantine after returning from. But maybe it’s likely to be now?!

13 new cases and two new deaths in Iran

Thanks for the update, sadly i'm not surprised by it. I said yesterday I expected the numbers to rise. Unfortunately I think this is just the tip of the iceberg there.

They'd only be asked to self quarantine if they have symptoms at the moment. However the CDC in America put Japan on to their travel warning list yesterday and so its possible that advice might change.

Re, Italy, it's probably just small numbers and shit luck.