AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

However, if it remains with comparatively few Uk cases, the NHS / govt is unlikely to recommend people stay at home if they have colds or sore throats, without any official suspected Covid-19 contacts
Otherwise, anyone who fancies several days off could claim symptoms

What they'll have to decide, at some point (I'm not saying this is today), is when the costs of a few relatively well people staying home unnecessarily are outweighed by the benefits of greater numbers of covid-19 infected people staying home.

Ideally they'll do this before there are so many cases that it's shutting the stable door after the horse has left.

The point I was trying to make is that to really slow this down, the best time to make that sort of recommendation might be well before it seems to us like the obvious thing to do. It might be when it still seems a bit ridiculous and OTT.

People would have said in December that it would be ridiculous to put Wuhan under lockdown, because there just weren't that many cases. If it had been done a bit earlier it might have made a big difference though. Obviously we're some way off that in the UK, but maybe we should be open to the idea of staying home, sooner than we might think.

To slow the spread, people self-isolating with any sore throat is clearly desirable (for this virus, and others we want less of too right now). I don't know how that gets triggered though. It's clearly going to be bad for the economy, but then so is any war, and I honestly feel like that's a bit how we need to start thinking about it

So I should have self isolated from mid November?

How does my 5 year old son get to school? He's been ill almost as much as me. Should he have been off school since November? How would we get food if everyone else is also doing the same? It's a lot easier for me to self isolate than most too since I don't work.

Unless officially sanctioned by the state this simply isn't feasible in the UK. We live in a country where coughs and colds are a normal part of life.

I'm really struggling with the gap between fantasy and practical reality here. (seems to be a reoccurring theme of the last 5 years)

Self isolation of high risk individuals is one thing. Self isolation of anyone who just may have symptoms is another.

Basically the situation is becoming a farce because the government is taking up to 72 hours to test the highest risk cases, because they don't have enough testing capacity.

I found this quite surprising, especially in the case of the 8 month old child with additional health problems. If we're struggling to get tests back quickly now, then it's only going to get worse as the numbers of close contacts that need testing goes up.

So I should have self isolated from mid November?

My first reaction was to say I don't know how you got that from what I wrote, at all, but I think I can see where what I wrote was confusing. By "self isolating" here I didn't mean the full on 14 day "alone in the house" isolation that's been in the news - just staying home as much as possible the way we just don't, at the moment, with most winter respiratory viruses. As for November - I'm not taking about what we would do when knowing nothing about the coronavirus - I'm taking about what we might want to start doing now, when we do.

It is a fact that to limit the spread of this in the coming weeks, we would do well to change our attitudes to being out and about when ill and do it less where possible. Lots of people can do this easily - lots can't - but if those that can do, then we will reduce some spread.

I'm not talking about full on quarantine here (perhaps I should have been clearer about this) - just not doing that thing people do of sitting in an office coughing and sneezing without a second thought as to whether they're passing their bug onto other people. Right now, avoiding that is just not considered a valid aim - I think that might have to change. Then, a whole range of options from simply not going out for a few days, to carrying on working because of your job, but shifting roles to non-customer facing for a few days, become newly socially acceptable - end result: less transmission of respiratory bugs a percentage of which will be Covid-19.

As for fantasy vs reality - my whole point was that, to get ahead of something like this rather than just reacting to it, surely we need to consider, at every stage, doing things that look excessive for that stage (and only appropriate for a stage we're not at yet), in order to avoid reaching some of those later stages. So yes, my examples are going to seem completely inappropriate for right now. That doesn't mean we shouldn't consider them, either as individuals or as a country.

Even without the Coronavirus I think people should be less selfish and stay off work if they have a cold/virus etc that could be passed to others, my colleague has been frowned upon by the whole team in the office because he has soldiered in with a bad chesty cold, coughing and sneezing away, this is made worse by the fact its a healthcare role so possibly passing it to vulnerable people. I am not his manager but was frustrated when my own manager said to me, "I am sorry Jenasaurus, but xxxx is still full of cold and will be sitting next to you next week"....now the inevitable has happened and I have the cold and have not gone in the office as its just not fair on others.

When I informed him I was not coming in to the office as was unwell, his comment was "I am not surprised if you feel like I did, take some whisky and rest"...so he was well aware how poorly he felt and happily passed it on to others instead of taking time out.

So in general if you are contagious, with D&V or a bad cold with sneezing, coughing etc, it is the right thing to do to stay off work, not self isolate but to prevent other people who have to work and be in that environment not catching your bug because you have chosen to not call in sick. Sorry, I'm just feeling sorry for myself at the moment, he really irritated me last week, he kept moving his chair closer to mine to speak to me and then turned and sneezed or coughed, and I believe he thinks he is to be admired for struggling in to work with it, which couldn't be further from the truth.

I think we need to educate people on how not to pass their germs on, rather than how not to get it.
If people weren't snivelling snottering inconsiderate arses in public, then we'd have far less illness in general.

By "self isolating" here I didn't mean the full on 14 day "alone in the house" isolation that's been in the news - just staying home as much as possible the way we just don't, at the moment, with most winter respiratory viruses.

I'm not the most social of creatures and I already spend far more time than most alone!

Even without the Coronavirus I think people should be less selfish and stay off work if they have a cold/virus etc that could be passed to others, my colleague has been frowned upon by the whole team in the office because he has soldiered in with a bad chesty cold, coughing and sneezing away, this is made worse by the fact its a healthcare role so possibly passing it to vulnerable people

I've always got colds and coughs that last much longer than most people. If I tried to do this in the work place I'd be unable to hold down a job. At school I'd generally get one that lasted the best part of a month. People drive me nuts saying "you should go to the doctors and get that seen to" as I only get told there's nothing they can do.

I'm not trying to be difficult here but I do think there's some unrealistic expectations going on here.

I see these things as involving shifts - everyone takes a step in the same direction (towards better hygiene and distancing when ill) from their own individual starting points - rather than everyone instantly ending up in the same place.

I don't think we should be limited by what the people least able to change can do, in setting aims that could help.

RTB, for what is worth I am a long time WE reader and occasional poster (under different names) and have really appreciated those threads. I'm honestly more practical than dramatic by nature, I just think the current circumstances are going to lead to us needing to make significant behaviour changes sooner rather than later.

CNN - "The world's biggest work-from-home experiment has been triggered by coronavirus" - edition.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-work-from-home-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

I read an interesting epidemiological study about over reliance on paracetamol (including lemsip) in the community, which made an attempt to estimate the additional deaths that this resulted in due to onwards transmission of infections. Basically, people take paracetamol when they feel too crap to work/go to school/ go to nursery/go shopping etc, so that they do feel well enough, leave the house and spread their germs. But secondly, pyrexia is an important part of our immune response and damping down that response extends the length of time we have the infection, thus confounding the problem.

Unfortunately I can't find the journal article to link it. It was around 8 years ago I read it and I think it was a team in New Zealand who wrote it. All Google throws up is study after study about paracetamol overdoses.

I think it is about bringing down the rate at which the virus spreads (called R0 I think). If R0 is lower than 1 (aspersions who is sick gives the virus to less than one person on average) the virus will go extinct.

If R0 is 2 a little more than half of all social interaction must be cancelled to bring R0 to below one. It is not necessary to cancel all social interaction.

I think switching to online education for a while (as they do in Singapore) would make a difference. Also avoiding cinemas, bars, Disney world, anything not necessary for a while.

But I do not think the time for this has come yet, has it?

I see these things as involving shifts - everyone takes a step in the same direction (towards better hygiene and distancing when ill) from their own individual starting points - rather than everyone instantly ending up in the same place.

1. How do you do that with a child under the age of 6?
2. There's plenty of research being done on the overuse of antibacterials around the house and how these are also bad for you in other ways. Particularly with increasing antibiotic resistance.

I don't know that merely saying in blanket terms 'increasing hygiene' either really means anything or necessarily is a solution that doesn't come with unintended consequences either.

I think the problem here is merely that self isolation policy is deeply vague and really rests upon testing being done a lot more promptly and efficiently rather than us being so far behind with contact tracing. It is putting companies in a position which is untenable without more government guidance and leadership

But I do not think the time for this has come yet, has it?

It hasn't.

However it's already obvious that our first line of defence in identifying cases and prompt contact tracing and then advising self isolation is flawed and beginning to cause problems.

Really worth watching "contagion the BBC4 pandemic" available now on iplayer. Its really interesting to show how illnesses spread. It was done by mathematicians and doctors to research how to tackle a pandemic virus. It isn't a documentary as such for those who think it will be dry. They simulate a pandemic in Hazlemere using the real inhabitants.

Actually makes perfect sense cyw people are feeling "better" after taking the medication and then going out, and if they hadn't taken it, they would have probably stayed home.
A consultant paediatrician told us in the past that you only need to treat a fever over 39.8 in healthy children as it can trigger seizures.

I think it might be difficult to realize when the time has come... Not right now, but when? Somebody said that when the first cases a reported from a city near you it is time to stop all non necessary interaction.
I have read that a few days before the lock down the city of Wuhan hosted a big banquet with 40.000 participants .
I hope that a mistake like this won’t be made again.

Again, I am taking about staying at home if you can, not full on quarantine (where people are separated from other family members). I don't think I said anything about antibacterials - simple handwashing would be a big step in itself for a lot of people.

I was originally basically agreeing with you that we need more government guidance and leadership - partly because without that, fewer needed behavioural changes will happen (until something is official, it's seen as panicking or overreaction, and people don't want to look like they're overreacting).

Bno @bnonews
BREAKING: 67 new cases of coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising ship's total to 285 - Kyodo

38 of the new cases on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship are asymptomatic, according to Kyodo

So self isolation doesn't seem to be enough...

Also

Bno @bnonews
NEW: 2nd doctor diagnosed with coronavirus at Japanese hospital - NHK

UPDATE: Doctor's wife and another patient at the hospital also diagnosed with coronavirus

I agree with you Eeyore. Until we have instructions from the government, most people will carry on as normal. I'm just thinking of me and mine at the moment. I'm not going anywhere busy already and avoiding public transport. As soon as there is a case in my area, I'm pulling the kids from school.
I've just got a feeling that we won't receive any official instructions till it gets too hard to contain.

@IvyBush123

It wasn't a banquet of 40,000 people, it was 40,000 Families!!

I think the self isolation on ships is different though. Surely they are interacting in some way, with staff bringing them food? The closed cabins will have air con, could it be passed that way?
There were photos from one of the ships showing people chatting over their balcony walls.
I'm sure if you didn't leave your house, you couldn't catch it.

This is a time where employees should be allowed to work from home. My DH works from home one day a week and there's always been resistance to them working from home more than that. He works for our local Council and IMO the right course of action would be to allow employees who are unwell but not too ill to work to work from home rather than coming into the office and soldier on, thus spreading their germs.

Red regarding the cruise ship and isolation ,I can't help wondering about ventilation on the ship and if it might contribute to spread .

I think I read that the Diamond cruiser passengers were told that circulating air was fresh air being circulated - though surely even that must be mixed with "old" air ?
I wonder how the contagion rate in passengers in interior cabins with no windows compares to others ?

Do we know for sure ( guessing not ) that the virus isn't spread through the air ?

38 of the new cases on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship are asymptomatic, according to Kyodo

This is worrying, as in most cases these people wouldn't have even been tested for the virus.

I don't think I said anything about antibacterials - simple handwashing would be a big step in itself for a lot of people.

This is it though. 'More hygiene' is a vague phrase that will be interpreted differently by different people. Some will automatically assume that means antibacterials rather than merely handwashing. What does it really mean in terms of how different people understand it?

It would help if guidance was explicit but even then people have different ideas of what hygiene means on a basic level as there is no commonly held shared value on this.

There are people who are fine with a bit of dirt and people who are obsessive about it.

You will probably find that those who are already concerned will change their behaviour far more than those who currently are more relaxed about it due to different psychology.