AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

The Americans who were evacuated from Wuhan at the end of January made it through the quarantine period without developing the virus, and have now been released to get on with their lives.

The 195 Americans who were first evacuated from Wuhan last month were released from their 14-day quarantine on March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, California earlier today. None of the evacuees tested positive for the new coronavirus, Riverside County public health officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser said at a news briefing, warning against discrimination. “They don’t need additional tests, they don’t need to be shunned, they don’t have novel coronavirus,” he said.

www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

I wonder how many tests they did on them? So many accounts of early tests coming back negative, even with symptoms, only to be positive later on.

I'm sure they came up with a sensible timescale for testing. Regardless, they haven't got ill. And they came from Wuhan.

I think it's something to focus on.

China has reported 14,800 new infections and 242 deaths.

That's just for yesterday I should have added.

There's a massive reported jump in new cases and deaths in Hubei BUT please look at @SuiLee and @HelenBranswell on Twitter. Criteria for diagnosis has changed - doctors can now diagnose based on symptoms (ie without testing partly because testing is proving inaccurate especially when considering CT scans. The deaths presumably would jump because now they're from confirmed cases rather whereas before those weren't being counted. Highly recommend Helen Branswell as a voice of concerned reason.

I was on a flight with a Corona virus scare yesterday. It was a flight from Singapore to Australia and it became obvious part way through a flight that a small child was ill with a fever. The captain announced that a doctor from quarantine would be boarding the plane and examining the child before any of the passengers could get off.

I did wonder if the parents knew the child was sick but still boarded the plane anyway. It would have been inconvenient to be quarantined but what can you do.

The child was examined and we were all let off the plane pretty quickly so I guess Corona virus wasn’t suspected. Everyone from the flight had to be manually processed through immigration instead of using e-gates and we were quizzed about our travel history.

Vietnam just quarantined a community of 10.000 people:
twitter.com/AFP/status/1227823474510422017

Vietnam just quarantined a community of 10.000 people:

Other than the tweet I can't find any evidence of this.

It’s in the Financial Timesv

Criteria for diagnosis has changed - doctors can now diagnose based on symptoms (ie without testing partly because testing is proving inaccurate especially when considering CT scans. The deaths presumably would jump because now they're from confirmed cases rather whereas before those weren't being counted

Even if you take out the people only diagnosed with the new criteria, yesterday still had more deaths in Hubei than any other day (242 deaths, 135 of which wouldn't have been diagnosed before). But the huge jump in numbers is predominantly due to the new method (~13,300 out of the ~14,800 new cases would not have counted as confirmed under the old criteria). I guess it will take a while before we can see any trend in the number of cases with the new data.

What criteria are other countries using to diagnose? Will there be a similar jump in cases in other countries with the new method or have they always used a broader definition?

(Numbers from the BBC)

AFP is a news agency. BNO news has the same story: twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227816393745281024

Son Loi, seems to be a village near Vietnamese capital Hanoi, seems to be quarantined.

True. The death toll must actually be much higher but simply not attributed to COVID-19 until today's count.

An eight-month-old boy is the youngest Briton feared to have coronavirus after being treated by one of Brighton's infected GPs, it was revealed today.

Worryingly the little boy has haemophilia and a lung condition. I hope he's ok.

This is what I have feared all along, that the actual number of cases and deaths are far higher than we thought. 242 in one day is shocking and scary

Omg Watersheep that has me welling up!
I have everything crossed for that poor baby!

Other than the tweet I can't find any evidence of this.

Being reasonably widely reported now.

News overnight isn't good generally. There's much twitter talk that the Hubei figures where leaked. The National Figures are still yet to be released which is odd.

Hubei shut down to continue until 20th Feb at least (not unexpected but still not a good sign).

Schools in HK to remain closed until March.

44 more cases confirmed on the cruise ship.

Party Secretary of Hubei province removed; no reason

Head of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office removed and replaced by a Xi loyalist; no reason given

Obviously there are concerns here that go beyond just coronavirus.

Being reasonably widely reported now.

Indeed, i've found a few more reports now, and appreciate those who linked / shared sources.

I have everything crossed for that poor baby!

I'm hoping he's ok. It's worrying given the additional health concerns.

Some positives:
Only case in Tibet has recovered and been discharged.
Youngest case in China, baby in Hainan has also recovered and been discharged from hospital.
From Chinese wechat
National figures for China: 14840 new cases for Hubei, 802 recoveries.
Schools closed until 2nd March.

242 in one day is shocking and scary

This, I was starting to feel a bit more reassured by the situation yesterday, but that just seems a lot in one day.

This, I was starting to feel a bit more reassured by the situation yesterday, but that just seems a lot in one day.

It's not a huge rise. Its a change in methodology. It doesn't reflect a one day big change.

This could still mean the rise in deaths is slowing, its just that the number of deaths reported before were being seriously under reported. Important to always stress the difference between the number of death and the death of reported being different things. This isn't a revelation - we knew this was the case. This is just a confirmation of that.

We still don't know if the new figures are a lot more accurate or still being heavily repressed though.

The reason for the change in methodology seems to be WHO being allowed in. WHO being allowed in either means things are stabilising and the Chinese government are getting more on top of things. Or it means quite the reserve and the Chinese government is struggling.

The sackings do suggest a lot of top down pressure being applied and scape goats lied up. The president is looking very nervous and worried whilst trying to appear strong.

So I do expect a Chinese declaration of a regional 'cover up' to be exposed in the next few days.

My concern is that the death rate isn't changing. Its still hovering around 20-18 percent. This correlates with the mild/serious percentages too. With a change in the numbers of cases being reported I would have expected a change in the death rate.

It might of course filter through in a couple of weeks' time but its concerning.

The Chinese Goverment though has been holding onto power for years, its the last Communist state standing. It wont want to be seen as weak and demonstrations have already started

The sackings do suggest a lot of top down pressure being applied and scape goats lied up. The president is looking very nervous and worried whilst trying to appear strong.

So I do expect a Chinese declaration of a regional 'cover up' to be exposed in the next few days.

There was a Chinese official (the ambassador maybe?) on the Andrew marr show on Sunday and when asked about how they dealt with the dr who first alerted people to the virus and has now died he blamed regional decisions, not central government ones. Sounded a bit like passing the buck.

It's not a huge rise. Its a change in methodology

I understand the new way of reporting cases, not having to test positive, but show symptoms etc.

However i'm unsure on the new way of reporting deaths. Could you explain the difference to how the were recorded prior to yesterday, compared to what now counts as a death from COVID19?