AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

[IvyBush123]

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

The doctor was one of the people who seems to have been skiing with the Brighton businessman who went to France and is feared to be a superspreader.

A doctor is just about THE last person you want to get the disease this early on.

If this did turn into a pandemic, what action do governments normally take? Do they start to recommend no travel or that people should wfh as much as possible or is this all in the hands of employers? I don't have any recollection of something like this happening before so nothing to compare it to. For some reason I have no recollection of SARS at all!

A doctor is just about THE last person you want to get the disease this early on.

That's what I thought. How do they now try and contain his exposure (assuming he's seen patients since).

This thread is like porn for health anxiety sufferers.

Basically there are three groups of affected Brits or British cases atm.

The Chinese Family in York.

There is the family in Mallorca who are connected to the Singapore business conference.

The Brighton Man who gave it to the family in France and the other people he went skiing with who have now been diagnosed including the doctor at the surgery which has been spread. These are also connected to the Singapore business conference too.

Then there's the Brit onboard the cruise ship stranded in Japan.

All these cases are connected either to the known outbreak in Singapore or directly to China.

It's when we start getting cases that are not traceable then we know its no longer under 'control'.

The danger is the GP might turnout to have spread it to a lot of people, particularly those who are vulnerable in terms of their health, due to the nature of their job.

That's what I thought. How do they now try and contain his exposure (assuming he's seen patients since).

He won't have had symptoms and will have been hygienic so I would have thought the risk is low.

The gp in brighton is the wife of the man from the Singapore trip.

Woodchuck- why is his lack of symptoms relevant if you're contagious before symptoms? I'd have thought that was the most risky time.

I agree though that his hygiene would be good so possibly that will make a big difference.

It’s so closely linked that it sounds like the closing of the medical centre is a precaution to prevent any further spread and to test everyone that needs to from there

Hygiene should be well practised in a gp surgery

What about the staff and other doctors in the surgery he could have come into contact with? All those door handles, phones and hot desking. Locums visiting from other surgeries. Doesn't have to be a doctor infecting patients but other people they work with. Such a minefield.

I don't think the risk is necessarily low.

This man has quite innocently being infecting lots of people.

The incubation is up to 14 days and this man infect people in France just a few days after he had been in Singapore.

He was not in China. Why would him or anyone who had been in contact with him realise he was contagious?

So I do think this could potentially be a big issue.

One theory with the 1918 virus was that the usual course of evolution (towards being a less severe virus) was inverted by WWI.

Fixed it for you. :)

Mutation is random and has no direction or course. Mutation only produces variants.
Variants are also (in fact, mostly) generated by recombination.
Which variants become prevalent depend on various factors, including how it spreads.
If more pathogenic strains are given the chance of infecting more people (e.g. because they are in contact with hospital staff and patients) then the more pathogenic strains will become more prevalent.

In the current outbreak, there won't be much diversity yet, except for possible recombination with other coronaviruses in circulation. The chances of this happening increase along with the number of infected people.
I haven't seen any data on it yet, just about the origins of the virus.

Does anyone know if you can catch this from food? As in if someone coughs over food and you then eat it, like a buffet.

Yes I’d agree that the comments I’ve heard are more ignorant than racist, but I do suspect these people have racist beliefs simmering away.

I’m getting really scared now

Incubation has been shown to possibly be 25 days now..

Yes you can brainfogg it's passed by aerosol method so out of the mouth. Breathing and coughing.

brainfogg do you have any beta blockers? Excellent for easing anxiety.

Lweji

Shite. That was really careless of me! Thank you for catching that.

BTW, there is basically no evidence that it can spread (at least significantly) before symptoms appear:

edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/health/wuhan-coronavirus-flawed-report/index.html

""Data has circulated that the new coronavirus would be infected throughout the incubation period," The Public Health Agency of Sweden posted on its website. "This information has not been presented in a way that provides scientifically substantiated facts. Rather, it has emerged that the data is unfortunately based on misconceptions. We believe that it is impossible for the new corona virus to infect throughout the incubation period ... This applies, among other things, to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine that has subsequently proven to contain major flaws and errors."

"In contrast to first reports according to which the index case (a Chinese traveling in Germany) seemed to have been asymptomatic during the time of likely transmission here, recent interviews by the Bavarian health authorities and the Robert Koch Institute in Chinese language revealed that she might have had mild unspecific symptoms including back pain and also took antipyretic medication."

So, it looks like said patient actually had a fever.

"The World Health Organization said in a weekend report that "the main driver of transmission ... is symptomatic cases." The organization said it's "aware of possible transmission" from asymptomatic individuals in a few instances but said that this may be rare and not a major player in the spread of the virus."

Woodchuck- why is his lack of symptoms relevant if you're contagious before symptoms? I'd have thought that was the most risky time.

Because if the symptoms involve coughing for example it will spread more easily when the person coughs. It doesn't mean it's not contagious during incubation but with most diseases it is less contagious.

If this did turn into a pandemic, what action do governments normally take? Do they start to recommend no travel or that people should wfh as much as possible

Local authorities have critical incident plans as part of their regular process, drawn up between council, health service, emergency services etc, and health crisis/pandemic is one of the things those plans are prepared for. The plans mention things like when to close schools/travel/wfh and how that would be co ordinated. Central govt also have plans and would be advising a town/city where a need was arising.

Also he won't generally have been in contact with each patient for 15 minutes and in my experience they often don't sit that close. Basically the steps they take to not contract patient's diseases work the other way round.

@PotholeParadise

I'm a biologist with a strong interest in evolution. I always notice this stuff.

I may also have some interest in molecular epidemiology

Thank you @ofwarren - I’m meant to be going for a meal later, a carvery so will have to cancel.

@notanothergiftcard I do take propanolol but might see about increasing the dose. If I had some diazepam that would help but my surgery don’t prescribe it anymore. I have a thread on here in mental health which has helped a bit, I just feel so out of control.

BTW, there is basically no evidence that it can spread (at least significantly) before symptoms appear:

We're going to live!

I'm a biologist with a strong interest in evolution. I always notice this stuff.

I may also have some interest in molecular epidemiology

I find I only notice it when other people do it. My own writing? I just read what I thought I said. Sigh.