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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

999 replies

IvyBush123 · 04/02/2020 06:41

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

OP posts:
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teta · 05/02/2020 11:31

Interesting info. about the differing death rates coming out of China. They're much higher in Kuching - over 4%. Due to a lack of beds and hospitals in the area. The overall rate they reckon is around 2% and will maybe go lower.
The jury also seems to be out on whether the German cases were spread by a non-symptomatic Chinese visitor or whether she possibly did have some mild symptoms. I guess the cruise ship cases will yield further information on this.

HouseworkAvoider10 · 05/02/2020 11:31

No, that won't work either, because they are too close to them.
My parents wouldn't be able to lie to them. They're old and just not able for it anymore and they will be put in a number of stressful situations.
Other members of the family would also ask a lot of questions about that.
A lot of questions and grillings will generated, as a result of doing that.

Oh well, I'll just have to take them round the city, regardless of the coronavirus.

teta · 05/02/2020 11:37

Oops I meant Wuhan. I don't know why I typed Kuching. Really do wish there was an edit button.

Oakenbeach · 05/02/2020 12:40

But that measles death rate of 0.1% is deemed utterly unacceptable.

It’s not simply the death rate but the risk of major, potentially life long, complications

Lweji · 05/02/2020 12:43

I'll just have to take them round the city, regardless of the coronavirus.

This is a good opportunity to show them the country instead. Take them to open areas, with plenty of fresh air.

HIVpos · 05/02/2020 14:43

@Maighdeann thanks for the links. it looks like he died from AIDS related illnesses due to not being on HIV treatment and late diagnosed, so severely immunocompromised. Unless there's been an update it looks like he hadn't contracted coronavirus though.

Your other link - yes I had seen that they were trying 2 HIV meds from the Protease Inhibitor group on people already infected with coronavirus. They work on preventing the virus from making copies of itself and some benefit was seen when used during the SARS outbreak. This interested me as I use a boosted PI - in fact I'm on monotherapy atm and it's the only one I take! However I understand that PIs other than ritonavir and lopinavir have been trialled on coronavirus and not been as effective.

Sassenach85 · 05/02/2020 14:57

Have only skimmed through the thread but what pops out is the number of times I hear people say it’s ok we have a good health car system.... anybody sick over the Xmas period? Anybody been to a&e this winter? My baby was left to wait in an a&e so full that mother’s were sat at the entrance on their coats. I was gobsmacked. There was nothing they could do. I had to bring my child home and hope there would be a seat in the morning.

Lweji · 05/02/2020 15:05

Even the best health care systems are stretched during flu season. Mostly because it's not feasible to keep extra beds and staff to cover for the maybe 2 month period when flu hits badly.

But it really shows how bad things can get even in developed countries if a virus causing serious respiratory problems hits on top of the flu.

And yes, there is much worse than the UK.

WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles · 05/02/2020 15:13

@Sassenach85 the lack of funding is what's fucking the NHS up, so I don't want to lay all the blame on the general public, but surely if you felt your DD was able to go home and come back the next day, A and E wasn't appropriate? Don't you think this is partly why it's so overstretched?

I really feel for the NHS staff who will be dealing with all this.

WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles · 05/02/2020 15:15

Sorry I know that's a bit of a derail, feel free to ignore me as I shouldn't have made it personal and I hope your DD is OK. It is terrifying though how the NHS will (or more likely) cope with this on top of the horrific pressures it already faces.

RedToothBrush · 05/02/2020 15:34

Interesting info. about the differing death rates coming out of China.

We don't know death rates and we certainly can not yet compare different areas because we are still too close to the point of outbreak.

At the outbreak is more advanced in Wuhan - people have more time to catch and either die or recover - than other areas.

Also the sheer number of infections overwhelmed hospitals so those with only mild symptoms are likely to not included in figures. Until a more scientific estimate of infected individuals is produced, we don't know if the death rate or higher or lower.

Death rates simply can not be calculated at this point accurately and this will only really be possible in retrospect

We might have a reasonable idea of the number of deaths particularly outside China as they are more tangible. But again we don't know the number of infections at this point. And outside China unless a link with another known case of coronavirus is made, some deaths might not be even considered as potentially due to coronavirus.

We can only really have an idea the scale of the threat of coronavirus in a vague sense of 'bad', 'really bad' and 'fuck we are all in real trouble' and that is based on pure numbers of dead rather than death rates and based more on who is dying. Are they elderly? Do they have preexisting conditions? Or. Is there a high percentage of the healthiest section of the population in terms of age and baseline health?

A lot of people are throwing about numbers relating to death rates without caveting or questioning what these numbers mean - and they don't mean anything very much at this point, because the data is too low quality and crude.

This is actively stoking fear. Not helped by people quoting rates of anything between 2% and 50% based on various types of dubious methodologies.

The death rates also fail to look at the number of severe complications which had significant implications for provision of healthcare services. The system being overwhelmed has knock on effect for the treatment of other completely unrelated medical emergencies. IMHO this is as important as the number of deaths because even if the majority of those with severe symptoms do recover there still is a problem. If doctors are so busy treating coronavirus, if you have a heart attack will you get the same level of care to prior to the outbreak. Probably not. You might well die as a result of that, but you wouldn't be considered the victim of the coronavirus outbreak itself.

My point is that statistics, particularly in medicine, mean very little if you don't think them through and understand their full context and the potential flaws.

Numbers only mean something meaningful after they have been analysed and studied to put them in this context properly. That's the whole point of researching rather than taking raw data at face value.

To stress, you can not 'compare' figures at this point because we have a significant portion of data missing which we are fairly aware of from news coming out of Wuhan. 'Comparing' death rates at this stage only highlights the scale of problems in Wuhan due to the sheer numbers infected, which again we already know are present.

It's all incredibly misleading and stressing this can't be done enough. Proceed with caution with anything relating to death rates. Look for other indicators of severity first as they are more useful.

Sassenach85 · 05/02/2020 16:00

It’s a long story but it was my baby boy who was sent away from a&e 3 times with “its viral” until I fought tooth and nail for an X-ray, I knew he needed help and I was right, he had pneumonia. Anyway that’s a long story a bit irrelevant, he was very very ill. We were there at 11pm that night and it was very very frightening to KNOW my baby needed help and as long as he wasn’t having a fit or passing out it was a case of join the queue. I sobbed, my partner phoned Nhs for advice. It wasn’t a case of oh well let’s go home. I was scared he would have a convulsion as I couldn’t keep his temp down.

And I was told I had to Wait. In the entrance, in the cold, with a 6 month old baby shaking from the infection he was fighting. The one they told me he didn’t have.

I feel sick thinking of it, my desperation and realising that getting your child to the hospital was not going to be the saviour I assumed. I should have taken a photograph of what I. Witnessed.

But.... when people say it’s ok we have the nhs I feel sick, things are not what they seem in this country at the moment Sad

Lweji · 05/02/2020 17:33

@Sassenach85
Big hug.

Triage for babies doesn't seem to work very well IME.

It was more than 10 years ago, but the first time I got to A&E with DS it was clearly dismissed and we waited and waited until I got really worried and just went in and told someone that he was getting unresponsive. He was then seen soon, only to be admitted and for the doctor to tell me that some babies don't recover. Well... maybe if you actually see to them earlier?

Another time I went in straight from the GP, and the first reaction was that I was overreacting. Until they measured his O2 levels.

None of those times were particularly busy.

Sassenach85 · 05/02/2020 18:49

Thanks he’s better now thankfully, it just makes me uneasy that a lot of people still believe the nhs can save the day and I suppose I have lost faith in it’s capabilities when stretched .... the dr said it’s the worst winter stretch they’ve had in decades, I guess throw in an outbreak of something else and the services we rely on would just stop working successfully

teta · 05/02/2020 18:53

@redtoothbrush this is from Sixthtone - a Shanghai based news blog. Theses are from their daily update.
Coronavirus: Latest Update I'm not in any way trying to spread disinformation .

teta · 05/02/2020 19:02

Latest Updates

ofwarren · 05/02/2020 19:07

The link is not working @teta

NemophilistRebel · 05/02/2020 19:55

Not too sure if it’s possible to do with the media clampdown in China.

New York Times reported on it just now

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?
Mrsmadevans · 05/02/2020 19:57

www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/coronavirus-latest-updates
try this

Thewarrenerswife · 05/02/2020 20:17

Yesterday I went to one of the largest international trade fairs in the UK. Lots of Chinese come over to sell their wares wholesale. I’ve attached the notice that was pinned on every toilet door.

To answer your question. Yes I’m worried about the Coronavirus.

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?
WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles · 05/02/2020 20:38

@Sassenach85 I do apologise again (I realised a second after I first posted what a twat I was being). I'm glad your DS is better.

It just makes me very nervous that the health service is near breaking point as it is, how on earth will it cope with something like this? I think we all know it can't and it won't.

I cannot praise the NHS emergency staff (A and E, call handlers, paramedics etc) enough for the care I have had to date, considering the state of the system they are working in, and I fear this may well be the final straw for a lot of them. The way they have to triage and prioritise must be so hard at the moment, I can't even imagine what will happen if we are severely effected (and even the thought of the amount of worried well with Panic Mode enabled, turning up at A and E is terrifying!)

Sassenach85 · 05/02/2020 20:55

Aw it’s ok WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles, I know what you mean, thanks though.

I agree that our nhs won’t hold up. Very unnerving. And although I have all the understanding in the world for the staff, and I really do as I’m in a similarly stressful and thankless job!, as a mother with a sick child you just think, this can’t be happening...

Obviously the whole thing was a bit of a balls up regarding his diagnosis, but to get back to the discussion, it was that one night at a&e faced with a sight I can only say was shocking. Like what I would expect to see on the news. In another country. Happening to someone else. Not here in the U.K. so any extra strain does make me nervous.

I wouldn’t say I’m overly concerned about the Coronavirus just yet but feel I’ve had my eyes well and truly opened regarding our health services capabilities

BellatrixLestat · 05/02/2020 21:39

@Sassenach85

I went through the same thing with DD (5). Sent away saying it was viral. Ended up in an ambulance after having a fit cause her temp was so high and she started to gasp for breath. She had pneumonia too. Most terrifying experience of my life. Her lungs are now scarred so would be dangerous for her to catch this.

Sassenach85 · 05/02/2020 21:58

BellatrixLestat So sorry about the lasting damage to your dd, mums do know their kids! If there’s one good thing I’ve taken from it it is to really trust myself. And I felt at the time I was firm with them but I’m hindsight I was shushed by the paediatric doctors, I mean what do I know?? His chest is clear they said... it makes me feel sick thinking about it it was a hellish time. My instinct were right weeks before they agreed. Angry and proud of myself all at once lol. Everything takes a new light when you have little lives depending on your decision making. I am scared for the future of our nhs tbh

Dennisreynoldsduster · 06/02/2020 02:14

Daily Fail is now reporting that a Chinese company may have revealed the actual death figures at 24k plus... plus it is the daily fail... dont know what to believe any more!