AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

[IvyBush123]

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

A little. I think the reason that I am more concerned about it than about flu is that flu causes cough, sneeze, high temperature etc. and in rare cases the flu virus leads into bacterial pneumonia. With Coronavirus viral pneumonia is actually part of the illness. Viral pneumonia cannot be treated with antibiotics.

Quite frankly, no. I have a virus that's been here since mid-December. My chest is tight and my legs hurt like hell. I don't know wtf is wrong with me. Coronavirus would just be the icing on the cake and at this point, I wouldn't care if I got it.

Fake news on the internet has a lot to answer for and the media have really played it up. I think the fatality rate is 2% which although of course would be better to be 0%, are pretty good odds. From what I can see the Chinese Government are taking it seriously hence the lockdown. If they were taking it less seriously then I would be more worried.

I feel for all the people in the locked-down cities, they must be properly scared. Not just due to the virus but because I imagine food and supplies will start to run low. I hope the World stops with the fear-mongering and starts to help when that time comes.

Though I do also worry that some people might be carriers and go beyond that timeline.

Current data gives 14 days as the longest incubation period. The average us about 5 days and the shortest 2 days.
Outliers are possible, but they will be very rare.

As to whether we should worry or not, I'm not for myself and my family - no, the risk is low and if nhs can't cope we can go private.

I wouldn't count on that - private hospitals don't have infinite capacity either - if it gets really bad you'll face a lot of competition for those beds in private hospitals, and if enough people have got ill before you, you won't get one because they simply won't exist. (I understand thinking like that but it reminds me of when some people hoped to fly home from the US when the volcanic ash thing happened because they'd wangled seats on private planes - then they discovered that the private planes wouldn't fly through the ash cloud any more than the big airlines could.)

Money won't get us out of this if it's bad (unfortunately, given that we're a relatively rich country), because you can't conjure hospital beds and ventilators and doctors fast enough, just by throwing money at the problem. They take a certain amount of time to be manufactured or built or trained or equipped, and that's not likely to happen fast enough for a huge explosion of cases all at once.

I don't think we should be unproductively scared - but perhaps scared enough to take all the preventative measures seriously. I mean the handwashing, and the elbow coughing, and the staying at home when ill rather than powering through. People aren't going to bother to do those things if all they're hearing are people scoffing about how it's not more than a mild cold.

We also need not to be afraid to speak plainly to people who aren't doing those things (rather than seething inside and posting on MN later about "that idiot who coughed into their hand and carried on serving at the till"). And I think, actually, that has to happen now - not only after local outbreaks have started to happen here. It would be better if it was already socially unacceptable to be careless about hygiene - you'd think it already would be because of flu, but it's clearly not.

China are taking the right steps to stop the spread. At the height of Swine Flu I worked in a Dr's surgery. Day after day we had people walk past five signs telling people to go home and call the swine flu line if they thought they had it and not enter the surgery. But still, there they'd be, coughing and spluttering over everybody and claiming to have swine flu.

The one person who did, collapsed and was fitting in the waiting room. It was terrifying.

I'm immunocompromised so this does worry me, but no more than anything else.

My younger brother lived in Wuhan three years ago, still has friends living out there who he has been chatting to. Some of them have been inside now for 10 days and are running out of food. DB says that having lived out there, add a zero on to any official number coming out of China.

As I see it, Pandora's box is well and truly open

It could well be the case. Especially if the disease has already made its way uncontrolled to somewhere like Pakistan (where conditions mean that it is liable to spread quickly and be uncontrolled and the population is more vulnerable) as you state.

The following article is about exactly that possibility, and what happens if China haven't been able to contain the virus at source.

It suggests that it would mean that it could be permanently 'out there' circulating around the globe with “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases”

www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/
Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained

This scenario suggests a 1st wave which would be particularly virulent but the disease wouldn't 'just go away' after that had passed.

It would be a question of doing whatever we could to slow the infection rate to buy time and so we could manage the number of serious cases we had.

This is the point really in terms of how much we worry. Realistically if the virus did come to the UK in an uncontrolled way, self isolation really isn't going to be much of a solution. Simply because you'd also have to avoid every subsequent wave too, because you hadn't got immunity. The only way out of that would be the development of a vaccine. Which isn't likely until 2021 at the very earliest.

I cavat this heavily by saying that the UK might well have lower infection and complication rates anyway for reasons mentioned upthread - before everyone starts panicking - which could give time to develop that crucial vaccine.

As to whether we should worry or not, I'm not for myself and my family - no, the risk is low and if nhs can't cope we can go private.

Well this is a very naive comment. If we do get an epidemic and the NHS really can't cope on a large scale, then nhs v private is unlikely to be relevant at that point. Management of infectious diseases can be deemed as a national emergency and therefore regulated by Public Health England (or equivalent in Scotland, Wales and NI) meaning all health care facilities and medical staff could be brought into state control via the Civil Contigency Act to try and manage the situation. Only 'essential staff' are likely to get priority treatment then.

Not a lot of point in worrying about this ultimately because its a situation beyond the control of the vast majority of us.

We also need not to be afraid to speak plainly to people who aren't doing those things (rather than seething inside and posting on MN later about "that idiot who coughed into their hand and carried on serving at the till"). And I think, actually, that has to happen now - not only after local outbreaks have started to happen here. It would be better if it was already socially unacceptable to be careless about hygiene - you'd think it already would be because of flu, but it's clearly not.

Yup.
Across the country, people need to stop pointing fingers at Chinese-looking people, and start washing their own hands.

Pretty sure the people who are most likely to say "can't be too careful" about avoiding Chinese people are also the same people who whisk past the sinks in public toilets at the speed of light.

Looking at the WHO last update about infections outside China, it seems encouraging. The new cases are reducing, looking like spread outside may be controlled. But it's like a fire. It's not out until it's out. And there may be outside foci that haven't been identified yet.

Still concerned here.

Mildly amused and half worried that I work in a place that's provided coronavirus commentators and comments in the media, but there are no visible reminders of basic precautions for respiratory infections anywhere that I've noticed.

We also can't assume that people working and studying there know or practice them either.

In another top institution I've been in, an actual toilet survey showed an apalling hand washing rate for what we should expect.

Not sure what to hope for the general population.

And I'm not even going to go on how even those who wash often just wash the tips of their fingers or little more.

If anyone is interested we have had a thread going in the Preppers section for a while sharing the latest news and such.

I've avoided posting anything outside of the Prepper section mainly as I know some people have health anxiety. Feel free to pop over if you're interested (I don't recommend for the anxious).

I live in Vancouver. The city itself has a population of a little less than 700,000 and is one of the most densely populated cities in north America. The Greater Vancouver Area has a population of 2.5m.

About 30% of the residents are Chinese or of Chinese heritage. I use public transit, work with Chinese people (some of whom visited China for the new year), eat out (including in Chinese restaurants but almost every restaurant here probably has some Chinese staff), basically every where I go I am likely in close proximity to somebody Chinese. My neighbors in the next apartment are Chinese.

We have 2 confirmed cases of coronavirus, from a family who visited the Wuhan province just before the travel restrictions were imposed.

Am not remotely worried. I think Brits avoiding Chinese restaurants are being a tad ridiculous and probably wouldn't survive here!

Lweji

If all that stood between us and a zombie apocalypse was handwashing, 28 Days Later would be a documentary of the consequences.

A few years ago, I had a health issue that meant I had to go to a hospital out-patients clinic every couple of weeks. As usual, signs outside the ward saying to use the handwash dispenser before entering the ward. I did a bit of silent judging of my fellow patients when I turned up early for my own appointments. Patients walk right past them and through the ward doors, unless they see someone ahead me using the soap!

Maybe, rather than telling people to wash their hands, we should try telling people to "show other people how it's done: always wash your hands" or some variation of that - to appeal to their pride and at the same time give them a sense of being watched so they might be ashamed not to do it properly. I wonder if invoking pride in doing it and/or shame for not doing it might work better than just implying it's a boring old 'duty' to wash one's hands.

I haven't been worried at all, but have just been asked to talk to all our suppliers re their pandemic planning and how they're going to cope with quarantining people who transit in and out of country (I'm in Australia).

Also just been told that some of the border restrictions are starting to impact us getting cargo out, which will quickly impact bottom line, so economic impact is starting to become a big concern.

As to whether we should worry or not, I'm not for myself and my family - no, the risk is low and if nhs can't cope we can go private.

I don’t believe private hospitals will be set up for dealing with an epidemic such as Coronavirus, especially if we have a situation where things become so serious the NHS can’t cope! Money can’t buy you everything.

The reason the Chinese are freaking out is that with a population of over a billion a 2% death rate would be an awful lot of people.

They know that the number of people who officially turn up to hospital for treatment will be the tip of the iceberg. The number of infected is probably closer to over 100,000.

Ole’ Xi is staying of the way until the worst is over so his crown doesn’t wobble.

Of course money doesn't buy you everything - who's so silly to believe that

But if you have means you do have more choices, and your life expectancy is higher in general. It's just a cruel reality (backed by data) unfortunately

Interesting that a death rate of 2% in this context can be considered not that bad.

But that measles death rate of 0.1% is deemed utterly unacceptable.

(I don't know how the rates of life changing complications stack up)

10 people on the ship that had 6000 Japanese on, have been diagnosed with coronavirus

@DetMcnulty
Economic consequences are huge for small businesses in China. pharmacies and supermarkets are open but a lot of the small businesses in my suburb are closed, but their fixed costs still need to be covered.

Interesting that a death rate of 2% in this context can be considered not that bad.

But that measles death rate of 0.1% is deemed utterly unacceptable.

By whom?

I was thinking the same @RoseAndRose it’s really being downplayed

So, it's both downplayed and overhyped.

I can assure you it’s not being downplayed in China: there are new regulations and restrictions on a daily basis.

But that measles death rate of 0.1% is deemed utterly unacceptable.

I think the difference is that measles is considered unnecessary as there is a vaccine so in theory no one should get it in the first place if everyone took the jab but that's a whole other thread!