to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

Does ever contestant win the Monty Hall game

What?

Statistically 2 in 3 do.

And about 1 in 57 win 10 in a row.

(Again, assuming they all choose to switch)

Don't worry the landlord nipped to the bookies and offset all the bets. So he won't lose if the 10 in a row happens.
He paid for it with the bets placed and the
Extra beer drunk, he made a fortune.

@mummmy2017

But you've said very, very clearly in your own made up scenario that you that the landlord doesn't care about how the game works. Only that there are two possible outcomes - win a car or lose a car.

My scenario is exactly the same. Two possible outcomes - win a car or lose a car. I've just shifted the probabilities to the very limit. But you've said very clearly that your landlord doesn't care. He only cares that there are two possible outcomes.

So what's the problem? (Other than you really not understanding maths. Or being very good at expressing yourself.)

*your own made up scenario that the landlord doesn't care

I think that's as far as we're going to get.

Don't worry the landlord nipped to the bookies and offset all the bets

I wonder what the bookies said to him when he went in?

No you changed the show that the Hubby was on, no executive would sanction what your suggesting, so it's not real is it.

@mummmy2017

No you changed the show that the Hubby was on, no executive would sanction what your suggesting, so it's not real is it.

Or, to put it another way, the landlord does care about how the game works, so all your posts about him have been a waste of time.

Goodnight.

Why would a show change their format.
Your only saying that to distort the chances of winning, because you need to win.
Rather than admit 10 show wins would be hard to do.

Rather than admit 10 show wins would be hard to do

The odds of that are 15 / 1000

Which is hard to do.

No one has said that 10 wins is not hard to do. It is hard to do.

So why the need to claim the landlord is dumb for taking the bet ?
Or the person who wants to rig the shows to only a win result.?

Day 1, the chance of picking any given card is 1/20. Day 2, the chance of picking any given card is 1/20. However, the chance of the Day 2 card being the same as the Day 1 card, is 1/400. It's the probability of 'sameness' that's being calculated, not the probability of a single card, which remains 1/20!

So why the need to claim the landlord is dumb for taking the bet

He is not dumb for taking a single bet on there being 10 wins in a row,

However, if he were to do it 100 different times, then he would lose. A lot
And if he only thinks he would have to pay out once every 1024 times, he would lost loads.

That is why he is dumb.

Mummy, people are using extreme examples to help you understand.
It's like the monty hall problem of 3 doors becomes much simpler to see when its 50 doors.
Or the chances of winning the lottery are very, very small (not 50/50 win/lose)

@Inextremis What is the probability that you've RTFT?

Who was it that used to write a note every morning and put it in his pocket, saying 'I predict that today, 26 Jan 2020 [or that day's date, changing the date every day], I will die'. So people would think he was magic if he did die and found the note.

Interesting question:

Would you risk £1 at odds of 1024/1 knowing that the actual probability was 1000/15?

So about 10 x smaller?

OffToTheMoon I have agreed that many time.
No one is saying it is not so.

My question was with a 1/2 odds on a car win.
The chance of 10 in a row is 1/1024.

My question was with a 1/2 odds on a car win
The chance of 10 in a row is 1/1024

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh

He is not dumb for taking a single bet on there being 10 wins in a row
That's debatable.

Assuming a punter bets £1, the landlord has around a 98% chance of winning £1 and a 2% chance of losing £1,024.

In terms of risk v reward, it's a stupid bet even if you only make it once.

Just because you don't like the bet , it's now wrong.
Sweet.

It is statistically a very bad bed for the landlord and a very good bet for punters.

t is statistically a very bad bed for the landlord and a very good bet for punters

Don't bring actual statistics into it