to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

Unless it's Italy at the 6 nations

Unless it's Italy at the 6 nations

They do have low odds if you want to back them to come bottom!!

Maybe lower than they should be - and the odds on the other teams are generous...

On many shows you stand to win with probability and the swap.
On one show only you can win on the door with lesser odds. .
But just looking at two doors I just choose the one I took first. I found an online version and I did win this way first time.

I will bet on Italy.....but then swap to Ireland

But just looking at two doors I just choose the one I took first. I found an online version and I did win this way first time

And?

Shrewsbury drew with Liverpool today. I don't think this makes them a 50/50 shot to win the replay....

Well yes, you could win sticking with the first door, but you are more likely to win by swapping. Even if you only ever play the game once. That's why we're talking about probability.

So if i promise to only offer you my (1/3, 2/3) bet once, will you take it?

But just looking at two doors I just choose the one I took first. I found an online version and I did win this way first time

Let's say 90 people right now did the same thing.
They went to the online version.
They kept the door they chose at the start.

How many of them would win?

The win a car or lose a car is not a sports event, there are two possibilities.
Either he won the show and has a car and pulls up in the pub carpark or he lost.
That is the landlords bet with his punters.
Can he pull up in a car 10 times.

Only another 140 posts and this madness can end.

The simulation!

www.mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/

Maybe we could get MN to do this.
Divide them into 2 groups.
Get 1 group to switch and 1 group to stick.

I wonder what the outcome would be?

I'm off to buy a lottery ticket, there's a 50% chance of me winning....

A better simulator

www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

Had I swapped on game one, and this only applies to me, I would have lost.

Can he pull up in a car 10 times

Yes - he has a 15 in a 1000 chance of doing that.
Not a 1 in 1024 chance

(Assuming he always switches)

If I've only got one chance to win a car, I'm taking the highest probability.

Had I swapped on game one, and this only applies to me, I would have lost

But it's not about you.
It's about lots of people doing it.
I will ask again.
If 90 people did the simulation.
If none of them swapped.
How many would be posting saying they had won?
How many would be posting saying they had lost?

But a 1 in 59000 ish chance if he always sticks

So far on the simulation, I have switched 6 times and only won twice

But I know I have a 2/3 chance of winning.

But for 'some reason', I haven't won 4 times so far

Maybe I should keep on going...

I met someone today.
They voted Leave.
Maybe everyone voted Leave then...

The win a car or lose a car is not a sports event, there are two possibilities.
I think this is where the problem lies, you are saying that at the end of the show, the contestant has either won or lost.
We are saying that to get to that point (either winning or losing), there has been element of 'sport' involved because the 2 possibilities are not equal, so it is not completely reliant on luck (in the way a coin toss is). By knowing how the maths work, you can rig the chance of winning to go in your favour.

Your apply knowledge the landlord does not have.
He just knows car , no car.
You changed the question.
So your not answering my question, your answering your question.

Took me 22 goes to get to a 2/3 win rate.

He just knows car , no car

So you agree that he is an idiot for offering odds on the chance of 10 wins happening if he doesn't know the probabilty of a win happening?