to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

I won 8 from 10 on the simulation, switching every time.

Beating the odds

Beating the odds

Walk away now...

Sweet baby Jesus and Mother Mary. 😬😑

So your not answering my question

What is your question?

Is it: What are the chances of someone winning a car 10 times in a row (and you don't know the probability of winning a car in each game)

Because that question cannot be answered if you don't know the probability of winning every time..

On an exam paper, you could not add info.
The question would read if someone played a game with two results , one he wins a car, one he loses
What are the odds on winning ten cars ?

Just because an event only has two possibilities it does not mean each outcome has an equal chance of happening.

I'm pretty sure my cat can grasp that.

The question would read if someone played a game with two results , one he wins a car, one he loses
What are the odds on winning ten car

I would tell the exam board that that was an impossible question.

Do you understand why that is an impossible question?

That question wouldn't be on an exam paper as there is missing information (the chance of winning or losing)

What is the answer to this question?

I roll a dice.
I get a 6 or I do not get a 6
What are the chances of rolling 2 6's?
What are the chances of not getting a 6 at all?

Your question has a false premise based on the perception of an idiot landlord. It doesn't tell you anything. It doesn't prove anything except if you start with duff info you'll get a duff answer.

So erm, congratulations, you are right. If someone doesn't know what they are talking about, makes incorrect assumptions and then offers odds on it, those odds will be wrong, and by tweaking the assumptions you say they make you can make the odds whatever fits your argument. Point proven

Yes it would.
The results are win , lose.
Coin toss.

I'm going to rephrase your exam question and replace 'win a car' with 'win the lottery'. Tell me if this helps you understand.

The question would read if someone played the lottery with two results , one he wins the lottery, one he loses
What are the odds on winning ten lotteries ?

Does that help?

What are the odds on winning ten lotteries

Maybe easier as what are the odds on winning the lottery once?

You can win
Or lose
So half the country should win every week.

If the Landlord offered those odds and 1,024 took the bet, each betting £1.

Each of those people knew that their best chance of winning the game is to switch, so switched every time.

Statistically, around 18 would win and around 1,006 would lose.

The landlord would have won around £1,006.

However, he would have lost around £18,432.

He's down £17,426.

He can't pay his rent.

The pub is repossessed.

He never forgives himself for his stupidity

Those are only the odds with two equally probable outcomes. If the question appeared on an exam paper there would be hundreds of complaints.

f the question appeared on an exam paper there would be hundreds of complaints

There would be an article in the Daily Mail. Can you solve this maths question that stumped teenagers?

And no doubt some people would think they could...

No your so wrong.
The question stands.
Someone either wins a car or loses a car .
1/2 chance to own a car. .that is so easy to see.
So the chance of doing this 10 times is 1/1024.
Your trying to attach odds to winning the car, which changes this question.
The landlord is offering you two options only a win or a lose.

Someone either wins a car or loses a car.
1/2 chance to own a car. .that is so easy to see.

So profoundly stupid.

I'm going to challenge Usain Bolt to a race.

Either he wins or I win, so I have a 50% chance of winning, right, mummy?

Someone either wins a car or loses a car

Someone either rolls a 6 or doesn't roll a 6.
2 options - so the chances of either rolling a 6 or not rolling a 6 must be 1 /2 each.Because there are 2 options.
2 options - so the chances of rolling 10 6's in a row must be 1/1024

What do you think of that statement?

We really are not.

The probability of winning 10 cars in a row depends on the probability of winning 1. And the probability of winning 1 car depends on what you have to do to win it.

Otherwise these would all have equal probabilities of 10 in a row

• win a car by throwing a head
• Win a car by opening the right door (as discussed)
• win a car by pulling a diamond from a full deck
• win a car by pulling a face card
• win a car by pulling an ace
• win a car by throwing any double

-win a car by throwing a double 6

• win a car in a raffle with 1000 tickets.

Either he wins or I win, so I have a 50% chance of winning, right, mummy

Well - there is only a 1 in 1024 chance of him beating you every race if you did 10 in a row....

Your arguing so that your not wrong.
Splitting hairs over it.
Changing a 1/2 bet with a bet that has a million plus answers.
So how many points of milk does it take to build a rocket.....

Changing a 1/2 bet with a bet that has a million plus answers

If the odds of a win is 2/3 and you do it 10 times, the odds of 10 in a row only have 1 possible answer.

If you do not know the odds of winning but you know that you can win or lose, you cannot work out the odds of winning 10 in a row,

Because of maths.

Your landlord is offering 1 in 2 odds on a 2 in 3 bet. Which is why he's going to lose the pub.