to ask if you can answer a question re probability (Maths question)

[Fainne]

So, say I have 20 cards in a pack.

I pick one. It's the Ace of Diamonds let's say for argument's sake.

I then pick another one out of the same pack of 20 cards the following day.

Am I correct in saying that the odds of me picking the same card is a multiple of the single odds?

So 1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400

?

Because I've someone telling me the odds are still 1/20 that I'll pull the same card.

I get why people stick with their first choice in the 3 door situation (ignoring odds). You think you are good at making choices and 1/3 feels like good odds and, as someone else said, if you change and then lose it feels like you've "thrown away" the win you had.

When someone sets it out with an entire deck of 52 cards it does become much more obvious, because you can't possibly feel as good about your 1/52 initial pick. You know instinctively that you're unlikely to have picked the Ace of Diamonds out and when someone who knows where the Ace of Diamonds is gets rid of all the cards except one then it feels much more sensible to swap to their choice.

To know probability of 10 you need to know probability of 1.

Probability is not defined by number of outcomes but by the chance that the outcome being considered occurs.

Without the probability info there is no valid answer.

The landlord does not care about the door game.
He is offering equal odds on car , no car.
1/2 odds.
10 cars in a row.
Simple.

He is offering equal odds on car , no car

Then he is being an idiot.
Do you think his mathematics is sound?

He knows that games show are lost more than won.
It does not matter about his state of mind.
If he offers 1/1024 odds he can , because
That is what the results show.

The landlord does not care about the door game.
He is offering equal odds on car , no car.
1/2 odds.
10 cars in a row.
Simple.
Yup, I calculated this on the last page.

1,024 punters, each betting £1.

Assuming everyone who plays the game switches every time, about 18 of them win.

The landlord pays out more than £17k.

Schroedinger's car.

The landlord does need to know how likely it is that the hypothetical Mr C will win each game though. He's assuming that win/lose is equally likely in each case. He doesn't have that information so he's daft to be offering odds.

I don’t think muummy is ever going to get this. 😑

His bet sounds good to punters.
He simple is offering does contestant win or lose. If he doesn't want to use the door odds there is no law that says he has too.
So his odds are 1/2.

He's a fuckwit heading for bankruptcy then and utterly irrelevant to mathematics

His bet sounds good to punters

Depends on the punters.

And how thick they are.

What are the odds the penny dropping before 1000 posts? 50/50, right? Either it will or it won't? All bets please PayPal to [email protected].

I get the loaded door bit
I get the better to swap.
I get the win more long term.
But the show is recorded as cars won or lost .
People do not quote odds of many shows.
They say MR C won the show.
The landlord is just asking what result did MR C end up with.
Can he do it 10 times.
With 1/1024 odds.

Can he do it 10 times
With 1/1024 odds

He can do it 10 times with 19/1000 odds

Mummy, most people in here are arguing maths and probability.

You're seemingly arguing about free will and, in particular, whether someone is entitled to make stupid life decisions and suffer the losses arising therefrom.

We all agree the landlord can offer whatever odds he wants (although really he should have a license...). He can pull whatever number he likes out of his arse on whatever basis.

We're not saying that he's not allowed to offer 1 in 2 odds, just that its statistically a very stupid decision.

This thread

Please, somebody start a new one. Some of you actually have the patience of a saint!!

In the game, the player has a 1/3 chance initially of choosing the car box. So, there's a 2/3 chance that the car is in one of the other 2 boxes. Because the unveiled box is not taken at random, the chances are still the same. 1/3 for the box chosen initially, and 2/3 for the other two boxes. As one is known not to have the car, the remaining unveiled (but not chosen initially) box still has a 2/3 chances of having the car.

The landlord isn't betting on win/no win. He's betting on the player having had chosen the box with the car or not, knowing that there are three boxes to choose from.

@mummmy2017

The landlord does not care about the door game.

Great - so let's change it a bit. Now, after the contestant has chosen a box, the host takes away a box and opens the remaining two boxes so the contestant can see which one is the winner - they have the choice of boxes. Obviously everyone now wins.

But your landlord doesn't know or care about this and is still offering bets based on it being equally likely that a contestant wins or loses.

Your landlord looks a bit stupid now, doesn't he? Maybe he should care about how the game works before opening up a book.

But his odds are not stupid..
He knows there are only two results win /lose.
He knows that to the power of 10 , the odds are 1/1024.
He knows he has never seen any game show with a run of 10 wins.
So he feels it is a safe bet on his part.
All other bets lose. Only 10 in a row wins.

ItsGoingTibiaK
The game shows all have set rules.
They don't change how they are played just so you can score points.

Saying that, Leicester did win at 1500 / 1

It was 5000/1, and the bookies were delighted. The reason it was 5000/1 is because very few people bet on it. The money they paid out to a handful of hardcore very optimistic Leicester fans was covered 100 fold by all the people who bet on Man City, Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool.....and lost.

So he feels it is a safe bet on his part

If he does it once, it's a safe bet. The odds are in his favour.
But if he does it for 1000 runs, he will lose.
Because he doesn't understand maths.

Okay, I think what mummy is trying to do is pivot away from the punters playing the Monty Hall and is instead replacing that game with other games with odds less favorable to the contestants.

So far the only thing you're proving is that you can do 0.5^10 and think up a scenario where someone is dense.

If players are playing well then its just over 1/500. That 1/500 could be the next contestant, the 100th, the 10000th. That your landlord feels safe is nothing to do with maths or probability - its stupidity and hubris

@Spamantha
Does ever contestant win the Monty Hall game?.