ragged quite. The cases so far reported by the Chinese authorities are those that presumably have made it to a dr and then formally been screened. Note, there’s a 3-5 day lag on the results of the screen.
Of course, many of these will be the more severe cases and many many more will be in the population at large with mild symptoms.
This has two effects: firstly, it may lead to an overestimation of morbidity and mortality rate. Secondly, it may be giving us a vastly underestimated figure of how virulent it is i. e. how easily the virus is transmitted.
It is worth bearing in mind the speed with which this virus has taken hold, despite rapid (and frighteningly draconian) measures taken by the Chinese authorities.
SARS had been raging for four months before the world became aware of it. This has been going for 4-6 weeks. It is the rapidity of the spread which is causing concern for those in this field.
Also, while I’m at it, the effects we feel here may not come from illness with the virus but rather financial markets and availability of goods which we are all now heavily reliant upon from China.