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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that the outcome of the general election shows the results of what a second referendum would have been?

143 replies

TheNameGames · 13/12/2019 07:06

This was sold as a Brexit General election and the resounding result of a Conservative landslide majority surely demonstrates once and for all that the majority of people (again, well, even more now) want Brexit to happen, despite people insisting people had changed their minds.

To people that said they would accept the result of a second referendum, do you accept it now? (I’m not talking about the conservatives winning, but specifically about the referendum result). If not, what, specifically, was the reason for a Conservative landslide?

All parties need to shift their stances before the next election, and fast, IMO.

OP posts:
meredithgrey1 · 13/12/2019 12:48

I think your argument would be stronger if labour wasn't led by Jeremy Corbyn. Listening to people, he's such a huge reason why some didn't vote labour. I think there are people who, if there was a second referendum, would vote remain, but who wouldn't ever vote for Jeremy Corbyn as PM. So I don't think brexit was the only issue at all.

That's not to say of course that Boris hasn't been handed a massive mandate to go ahead with the brexit plan he laid out. I just think people didn't want a second referendum enough to stomach JC, but some would vote remain if the opportunity were to arise - which obviously it won't now.

noodlenosefraggle · 13/12/2019 12:55

Can’t really view labour as remain votes. They’re ‘neutral’ votes, surely?
Agree with this. If you are counting Labour as remain, you have to accept that Labours Brexit policy was basically have a referendum on remain or remain. No one fell for that one I voted Labour because of this but brexit supporters didnt and there were a lot more of them than evidently Labour thought even though everyone was telling them that.

Thehagonthehillwithtinsel · 13/12/2019 23:47

A lot of us were voting for the least bad option.Many others voted tactically.
Also first past the post and the every vote counts would be different,mainly because of your vote counts you can vote for what you want.
34% of people still didn't vote at all.

Spoiltbutnothappy · 14/12/2019 00:14

Not at all. Many people voted for Tory because the prospect of Corbyn in power was worse than Brexit however much they dislike Brexit. A referendum about Brexit would have been a very different story.

OpportunityKnocks · 14/12/2019 00:30

Disagree.

Brexit had to happen. If we have another referendum and it goes the other way, it will be years and years of political turmoil. And another referendum again to satisfy the leavers.

People are exhausted hearing about it, discussing it, trying to work out what it means. They just want it done so that we can move on from it and build a new economy, which is what conservatives have promised.

So I think that it wasn't a vote for leaving, it's a vote for upholding the referendum and making it happen so we aren't continuing to stand still and flap for a decade about what to do.

Spacebowlisback · 14/12/2019 00:37

I do now think that maybe a second referendum would’ve still resulted in leave. I question the motivations for those votes and context is key but yes, I think you’re probably right.

Meshy12 · 14/12/2019 00:55

Absolutely wrong I think because not everyone voted depending on brexit and over 52% of votes went to pro-remain/2nd referendum parties anyway but under FPTP the Tories have a majority

I mean the Lib Dem’s received 1.2m more votes this year than in 2017 and lost a seat. By contrast the tories received only 300,000 more votes than in 2017 but gained 47 seats!

So it is very difficult to draw any such conclusions

Italiangreyhound · 14/12/2019 02:42

I think you are right. I think it is what most people want (most people who could be bothered to vote at least). I am very sad about this and I wish we were staying in the EU, but I think that ship has sailed and people knew if they voted Tory they were effectively voting for that.

Quaffy · 14/12/2019 02:53

Well 53% of the vote went to Labour, LD, Green and SNP, i.e. the parties who wanted a second referendum. Only 47% to conservatives and Brexit Party

This^^

OP, it is completely wrong - unarguable in fact - to say that leave would win a second referendum given pro-brexit parties lost the popular vote.

You can’t compare a GE to a referendum but even if you could, it is more suggestive of remain winning.

I have no idea how a second referendum would go, save it would be close. It’s academic now though as Tories won the most seats under the system we gave and therefore have both a mandate and the powers to take us out.

Quaffy · 14/12/2019 02:54

First paragraph: reads wrong. Leave might win, but wrong to say this election result proves that.

safariboot · 14/12/2019 03:14

Hard to say, even though this was "the Brexit election", mainly because of Labour's unclear Brexit stance.

46.4 % voted for a clearly pro-Leave party (Conservatives, Brexit Party, DUP).

20.1% voted for a clearly pro-Remain party (Lib Dems, SNP, Green, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Alliance, SDLP).

32.2% voted for Labour. Based on vote swings compared to 2016's referendum results most of these voters are pro-Remain but hard to know how many.

Then you've got that some Conservative remainers will still have voted for them anyway.

So another Brexit referendum could plausibly have gone remain.

LellyMcKelly · 14/12/2019 03:17

Anti Brexit parties got more votes than leave parties, so yes, it probably is a fairly accurate reflection if the Brexit polls over the last few years are anything to go by. It’s also a reflection of the deep unpopularity of Corbyn and his far left policies. How his party couldn’t work that out is beyond me. Every man and his horse knew he was a vote killer.

Figmentofmyimagination · 14/12/2019 06:37

It depends whether you think this is the end of the road for stopping this - which it clearly is - and whether you think people who strongly object to brexit ‘accept’ the result, which is clearly unlikely, as it is had become an issue of identity which reflects your core beliefs and values.

It also depends whether you think generationally as opposed to just taking a slice of time. All the young people I know are utterly dismayed by brexit and cannot get their heads around the idea that people are taken in by It all. I suspect it is something that will never be forgiven.

notmuchtooffer · 14/12/2019 06:43

Is a 43% share of the vote a resounding vote for Brexit in lieu of a referendum?

^ this

Deathgrip · 14/12/2019 07:06

Brexit was absolutely the main factor of this result, despite what’s banded around on MN. You only have to look at the difference between Labour’s result in 2017 and now to see that it cannot just be about Corbyn. I wouldn’t have chosen Corbyn to lead the party despite agreeing with his policies on the whole, as we are fundamentally a right wing country these days. I’d rather have a centrist Labour government than a conservative one. Even so, this is not about Corbyn.

A second referendum could absolutely have had a different result. There were many lost Labour seats which were leave-voting constituencies in the referendum. While the referendum was incredibly close, when you look at constituencies it’s a different picture. Vote percentage was higher for parties who wanted to remain / offer a second referendum than those backing leave, but FPTP as always means that results are not reflective of vote share.

But yes, Brexit was clearly the main factor behind this result. Boris obviously understood this. People can bang on about Corbyn as much as they like but a) this election has proven that the quality of the party leader doesn’t matter at all to the majority of voters and b) the result would have been no different unless Labour had strongly backed Leave. They were in a no win situation. The fact that people were so opposed to a vote on the actual details is disturbing.

It’s staggering to me that a man like Farage has had such an enormous impact on the future of this country. If Cameron hadn’t been desperately trying to hold on to voters departing for UKIP, none of this would ever have happened. The EU was never the problem.

The only benefit of such a large Tory majority is that leaving with no deal should now be unnecessary. It’s ironic though that leaving with a withdrawal agreement puts us in the position which many leave voters thought we were already in (bound by rules but with no influence). And of course Trump immediately tweeted about how we are going to have just the best trade deal ever.... we should all be concerned about that. Let’s hope he’s gone soon and we can deal with someone decent.

Jojo19834 · 14/12/2019 07:17

@Deathgrip very strange view on what just happened and just to ignore all the people on MN who have explained why they have voted the way they have voted is ignorant to say the least. Absolutely no way did I vote to Leave over Remain. This was not a referendum. I voted for the next 5 years and for us to move on with our lives. JC is absolutely a factor in many people’s decisions. If you speak to people and ask then this is what you will hear. Leave voters will take this result as a validation that they are right. I still don’t think it was right but we accept this is the case and now want to stop this country stagnating in this limbo state and move forward to make what we can out of the situation.

Quaffy · 14/12/2019 07:38

Polling showed 43% of people who didn’t vote labour gave leadership as their reason. Of course brexit influenced lots of people’s votes. So did not wanting to vote for a party led by Jeremy corbyn.

Trewser · 14/12/2019 07:43

The Conservatives won this becuse of Jeremy Corbyn .

ivykaty44 · 14/12/2019 07:46

The EU will be very worried now (good).

Why will EU be worried? There is a deal set up, BJ has a majority to get that deal through. The rest of EU must be pretty pleased it’s going to look likely to go through and stop all the messing around

We as a country now have to join the WTO which has its secrecy courts and unelected members. Trump is trying to disband that so possible there won’t be a WTO and we’ll just have to go it alone

homeishere · 14/12/2019 07:46

Well, there was a majority for remain/second ref parties - in terms of vote share - but we don’t have proportional representation.

So if it had been another referendum then arguably remain would’ve won.

Just to say to any Tory voters; don’t go crying to the food banks.

ivykaty44 · 14/12/2019 07:49

Just to add any talk of a second referendum/ it would have been a third, we voted in, we voted out any further viteing would be a third vote. Each time people really haven’t been given the facts on what they are voting for by either side

user1471519931 · 14/12/2019 08:03

It shows Scotland wants to be in EU

longwayoff · 14/12/2019 08:04

YANBU. Although I just heard a committed leaver and Boris fan say 'now that we've voted for him up here (Manchester) I hope he'll do something for the poor'. Confused

mummmy2017 · 14/12/2019 08:27

Scotland was told very clearly by the EU it can not just stay in the EU.
Scotland would have to apply and take years to be financially able to join.
Scotland also is funded by us, so they would have less money, they are already in debt and have major NHS problems, if they left they would not be sharing ours, to help them out, the Student Fees would have to be paid and lots more.

Deathgrip · 14/12/2019 08:27

It’s not a strange view in the least. Two years apart the same party with the same leader had drastically different results - in the 2017 election Labour had the same vote share as Tony Blair did when re-elected, and the biggest gains the party had seen in decades. This time they had their worst result for nearly a century. I’m not dismissing what MNers say, I’m saying it’s a bubble, like any other site is.

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