Are the conservatives really this popular?

[LabourHere]

Listening to statistician on BBC who reckons the conservatives are head in all polls and will win a majority on election day.

I know only two people voting conservative (mil and dm). Who are all the other conservative voters??

Are the conservatives really going to win the election so easily?

If so...I'm very very sad

I thought long and hard about voting for my MP Nigel Evans. No I didn't really he is a shoe in. And the Labour clown in the next constituency is out on his arse.

I’ve been surprised by how anti Corbyn people are here. I’m living in an area that’s been Labour forever and has been crushed by Tory ‘austerity’.

When the terrorist was shot by police in London I had family commenting that ‘Corbyn would rather they had counselling and were released back into the community.’ This was before it came out that the killer was an ex prisoner. I was shocked. I am no fan of Corbyn and won’t vote for him but I didn’t realise the level of contempt for him that’s out there.

I think that the Conservatives are going to end up with a huge majority. Bigger than the highest predictions. I think Labour are going to lose seats that they never considered would be at risk.

Tory voters turn out to vote. Tory support is usually underestimated by the polls. The Tory papers have been writing ‘it’s closer than you think’ articles because the only possible threat to the party is complacency.

I come from a Labour supporting family that has strong union ties.

If you’re ever unsure of the polls, check the bookmakers.

www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

You’ll get from 13-1 to 9-1 on a Labour win
The longest odds on a Conservatives win are 1/20

Shy Tories...

I prefer ‘deviant voters’

@Breathlessness

Just to supplement your post, it is worth noting that, while the conservatives remain odds-on for a majority, the bookies have the likelihood of a hung parliament at around 35% now (an improvement in recent days, from Labour's perspective)

"Rich people get mugged, robbed and assaulted but can't understand why the police take 45 mins to answer a 999 call"

Got a live one my end too. Votes Tory then moans like fuck about waiting ages for an NHS operation.

The first question was ‘who are you planning to vote for?’, and when they answered Labour, they got a message saying that they were not eligible to take the survey. Scores of people commented saying the same had happened to them.

Opinion polling doesn't work like this.

I follow a political opinion polling blog. It's been going for years.

No one on that site really knows what will happen in this election.

It's true that the Tories are far ahead in the polls. Normally this would mean a landslide. However, they were also this far ahead in 2017. The polls actually understated Labour support, plus polls did show an increase in Lab support one week out.

I remember there being a disconnect between what the polls said and what canvassers were hearing people say in the doorstep, which was more favourable to Labour than the polls suggested.

Something similar is happening now. There is a lot of talk of anti-Brexit tactical voting against Tory MPs. The difficulty is knowing who to vote for - especially in south England. Also some ex-Tory Remain MPs are standing as independents. What I'm not hearing is the same enthusiasm for Corbyn.

Some are saying that despite the huge Tory lead there could be a hung parliament. This is entirely possible if tactical voting websites are influential enough. The Tories hold scores of seats in remain areas of the south of England on approx 40% of the vote. In theory the Lib Dems could pick up disaffected Tory support, but the polls aren't reflecting this.the

Additionally, on average Labour MPs are elected on fewer votes than Tories because turnout in places like Liverpool (v Labour) is low and somewhere like Surrey (v Tory) it's high. So, if the polls show the Tories l less than 5 points clear they might not get a majority in Parliament.

I'm no longer in the UK but I suggest that a hung parliament would be a very bad outcome.

refraction

It’s not lies. Do you not read anything? Labour have admitted it. How do you think they will pay for the manifesto. Get out your bubble and do some research ffs

I'll say it again.

Look at the data in the polls.

The Conservatives aren't as popular in the polls as they think they are.
TBH, no party really is.

When you look at the 'don't know's' and then you look at all the people instead of those who are 'likely to vote', the major parties aren't popular at all.

I was listening to a documentary last night about people who don't vote. About 4 - 9 million people may not even be registered to vote - so their voices don't get heard. Apparently their voices don't matter.

So when you see a poll saying "40% support the Conservatives' - in reality, that's about 25% or so of the actual adult population.

Hardly a ringing endorsement.

Our democracy and engagement of people by all political parties is a disgrace.

Not to sabotage a party that has policies in which you don't

Please...if you think a party has a really bad policy, then it's sensible to vote to stop such a policy happening.

The Conservative party has destroyed our country. The thing is, people don't realise how it's been destroyed until you find yourself in the situation when you need the system - and then find how it's against you.

"Hard working families who are traditional Labour voters but want Brexit' might find out exactly how fucked up the system is when the shit hits the fan for them or their family, unemployment happens, they need the NHS, social care or they need benefits......and then they will see how the system works.

People live in a social bubble, until that gets burst and then the reality of broken Britain hits.

There are many people on here who live in a social bubble - and there are many people on here who have experience of the system and what it's like.

Too many people have their fingers in their ears and pretend they can't see what's wrong with this country,

And Johnson does not give a shit about you. He just gives a shit about himself.

None of us votes for conservatives. But the vitriol directed at us by Labour voters when we said we agreed with some of their policies might drive us to rethink.

If there is another party with a good chance especially one which would fight to remain, we would probably vote for that party. It is the case of the best out of two bad ones at the moment. Labour is just unreal in a bad, bad way.

I am very eyes open to what’s wrong with the country but Corbyn isn’t the way. We need a decent sensible opposition with a slightly left leader. Not what labour have pushed now.

Even my left leaning friends hate Corbyn and his policies.

I am very eyes open to what’s wrong with the country but Corbyn isn’t the way

We don't need more Conservative rule.

Because they have been running our country for the last 10 years.

I don't know anybody aside from on here who won't be voting conservative

I don't know anybody aside from on here who won't be voting conservative

Maybe you have shy Labour voters?
Or you have you own social bubble...

Because the polls show that neither party has a massive amount of support....when you look at the raw data and then think about who the polls include and who the polls exclude.

Pretty much every previous labour voting person I know is not voting labour this election.

It’s Corbyn.

And I come from a northern ex mining town

It’s Corbyn

Corbyn, Brexit.....

Well, I hope they get what they hope for if Johnson gets in. Having been to many Northern ex mining towns, I've seen what they're like.

I hope things get better for those communities. But I don't think they will.

@chomalungma no I just try not to mix with the weirdos

To those saying that Corbyn has more support in younger people - do you think that Labour will maintain that support long term? There is an expression that goes something along the lines of:

‘If you’re not a liberal In your 20’s, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative in your 30’s, you have no brain.’

As a swing voter (voted for all major parties in various elections over the years), I usually vote on major issues. However, I have observed and am increasingly concerned by the behaviour of party political activists. I will be honest - even taking into account major issues, it is is putting me off some parties.

The left wing seems much angrier and much more aggressive than the right wing. Talking about dancing on graves, for example, is distasteful. As much as I can’t stand Trump, I will never threaten to dance on his grave, no matter how many impeachable offends he has committed.

The anger and aggression and vitriol seem to be aimed at anyone who does not agree with them 100%. As a floating voter, I agree with some of their policies but not all. But I am put off by the lack of nuance in arguments and inability to work with others. I am sure I am not the only person to feel this way.

If it were to appear as a caricature, the Left are aggressive bullies and the Right come across as more reasonable and capable of debate. That is not an image will win the Labour or Liberal parties votes. And it feeds into the ‘Quiet Tory’ voter profile.

More popular than the awful combination of Corbyn, Abbott and McDonell. Labour needs new, less communist leaders, that is all old hat that never worked in the past.

Most people don’t want to pay more tax, apart from the momentum bots on MN

I know several die hard Conservatives who loathe what the Tories have done while in power, but feel like they have no one else to vote for.

Labour is more popular among parents of young children. The Tories get the over 65s vote. Older people vote.