to think that predicted grades for UCAS should represent the best your DC could do, not something a bit crappy

[MargoLovebutter]

I really don't know if I'm being AIBU, but second DC is having trouble with her school being really pessimistic about her predicted grades.

The school has signed up to some scheme whereby they get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni.

DD did well in her GCSEs (having done bugger all revision), she's reasonably bright if a bit lazy but is now properly motivated to get into uni. The school seem really reluctant to give her predictions that seem perfectly achievable to me and I am the antithesis of a pushy mum!!!!!

I had no such problems with DC1, so I'm wondering if this is a new thing or what the fuck is going on?

You should speak to to them. Really there’s no point in them predicting her higher grades than they think she’s realistically going to get. Maybe she’s falling behind or not doing as well as you think she is - they obviously don’t base their predicted grades on nothing. You might need to take your daughter in for a meeting to find out what’s really going on and what can be done to help on all of your parts.

get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni.

From a uni admissions perspective, the school should get kudos for this: accurate predicted grades are more useful for both uni and applicant.

It's not in anyone's interest for the school to overegg the predicted grades: no point in securing that place at Oxford to do vet med if AAA* was never going to be achieved in the first place.

Furthermore, if DD outperforms her predicted grades then she can apply for a place at a "better" (i.e. demanding higher grades) university during the clearing process.

The school should predict what they think she'll get - predicted grades aren't supposed to be some kind of motivator for students. If she's struggling with the work (it's a big jump from GCSE to A-Level) the school may be being realistic, even if that's not what you want to hear. Similarly, if she's just not working hard enough, she won't get the best grades then either.

It's not fair on universities or students to make and offer to students who were never going to get the grades, who then miss their place and wind up in clearing or resisting. That place could have gone to a more deserving candidate.

Pessimistic or honest?

What have they predicted and what do you think she can achieve? What are you basing your predictions on?

Lol, I'm not talking about A*s for Oxford!!!!!!! She thought that the school would predict her one grade higher than she achieved in her AS exams. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me, but I'm thinking I must have missed something?

Yes - I’m afraid you’re missing that the school’s job is a realistic prediction. They have lots of experience of pupils and families who say they’ll do better in the real exams than their performance suggests.

Why should she do better in the actual A levels than the end y12 / AS exams? There is a shed load of new content to learn in y13.
If she worked hard in y12 and achieved e.g. Bs why would they think she will suddenly get As?
Conversely, if she didn't work hard in y12 and got Bs, why would the school believe she will suddenly start working considerably harder in y13?

If she does way better than predicted she can withdraw and reapply or go to adjustment.

Fair enough, but they under-predicted her GCSEs significantly, which prevented her from getting into the 6th form of her choice, so they have form on this!

They are ethically obliged to predict as accurately as they can, because the prediction serves as a back-up, should something really serious happen, like the place where they are storing the exam papers burns down.

They can’t - and shouldn’t - risk over-optimistic predictions anyway because it tends towards complacent teaching and complacent revision, and then the grades slip.

They may have thought on the basis of work done in class that she was lucky to scrape that grade. Predicted grades are just that - the school's best estimate of what that student will achieve, based on what they know if that student's ability, attitude and track record. Target grades are something different - what they could get, if they worked really hard (or, in some schools, just always one or two grades higher than predicted. I've also known schools not allow teachers to give students a target grade lower than a B, for instance, which makes it a bit worthless). It makes sense that universities would be more interested in the prediction than the aspiration.

No, predicted grades should never represent the best they can do. They should always be a realistic prediction based on the view of the students abilities.

You seem to acknowledge that your daughter fluked her GCSEs, more through luck than hard work, which explains why her grades were higher than predicted.

I didn't realise you could fluke 11 GCSEs!

Furthermore, if DD outperforms her predicted grades then she can apply for a place at a "better" (i.e. demanding higher grades) university during the clearing process.

This is definitely worth repeating.

However, if her predictions turn out to be more accurate, then at least her university offers won't have been wildly unachievable.

I'm afraid they are not just 'sweeties" to be given out to aid motivation. There is more to it than just adding one grade above what they have achieved in one internally sat test. Due to the fact students only have one chance at the exams, results are not has high as they once were, when multiple resits were permitted and public exams were sat at the end of Year 12.

Have you asked your daughter what she has done to show her teachers that she is capable of a higher grade? Is she doing extra work? Has she done more reading other than what is in the syllabus? Is she meeting all deadlines and actively acting on feedback given? What is she doing to enhance her exam technique? Has her classwork and homework improved this term?

Remember, predicted grades are not target grades. In addition, she can still apply to courses that are a little higher than her predicted grades and there is also clearing etc. when she receives her actual grades.

She thought that the school would predict her one grade higher than she achieved in her AS exams.

Why? My son has just got his predicted grades - 2 are the same as he got end of L6 mocks (school don't do AS level), 1 is 1 grade higher and 1 is 2 grades higher.

We were at parent's evening last week - one of the teachers explained why the same grade had been given for that subject- he showed us figures over the past few years showing three columns, mock, predicted and actual, and it was clear that for his subject, most students got the same grade as the mock, a few got 1/2 grades higher, but virtually the same number got 1/2 grades lower, so as he explained, balance of probabilities was that most would get the same grade as the mock which is what they predict unless there is something particular about a certain pupil, i.e. a motivated student who did particularly badly because of an illness meant some topics were missed etc and where they trust the pupil to put the work in to catch up.

Often the final a level grades go down instead of up from AS

If she got good GCSEs with no revision she may have had a run of good exams with just the right questions but this will have done nothing to impress her teachers who knew her throughout the two year process, believe me

You can definately fluke GCSE's although in some ways I sympathise. Dd's entire cohort was under-predicted for science (physics to be orecise) because the relatively inexperienced teacher had no idea about grade boundaries under the new system. (Dd got a 4 in her mock, was predicted 8 and got an 8 in the real thing)

But going back to your OP. A Level predictions should be what the school thinks a child will achieve based on their knowledge of the child, their current classwork and tests and any end of year exams/AS levels.

Dd has been predicted a grade higher than she got in her AS but that's because it's an essay based subject and her teacher feels it's exam technique that needs working on, rather than content. It might be different for maths or science subjects.

And dd has paid (from her own money) for copies of her AS papers so that she can analyse where she lost marks.

Kazzyhoward and my son achieved better than his!!!

I'm aware how it works, but I thought it was fairly well understood that most pupils did better than expected, but it sounds as though this is not the case. Throughout her entire school history, DD has out-performed her targets in all end of year exams and her GCSEs. She out-performed one of her AS levels and met the other two. It seems odd to me that they'd now be erring on the side of pessimism but it sounds as though I'm being unreasonable.

I'll make an appointment to chat to the head of sixth and get their perspective.

thanks Comefromaway, we have also ordered the AS papers so that the analysis can be done.

Teacher here. It's in nobody's best interests to over predict. It needs to be a realistic grade based on attainment to date and how the student could fare if attainment remains the same going forward. As previous posters have said, clearing is your friend if final grades are significantly higher than offers based on predictions. My son is currently applying but, because he changed courses at the end of year 12, his predictions may be on the pessimistic side as he will only have been doing one of his subjects for a term when predictions are made.
Personally I'd rather predictions be exceeded than not reached.

There is also the issue of revision.
If she did well at GCSEs having done no revision then it is perfectly possible she actually doesn't know how to revise and will come a cropper for the A levels.

This sort of happened to me, but later. I found maths dead easy. I never really needed to revise for maths, so never learned how to revise for it. First year at university studying maths - not a clue how to revise / learn it.

livefornaps - well I live and learn because I've not heard that. DDs school endlessly bang on about the improvement they see from AS to A levels, so sounds like they are either bull-shitting parents or haven't heard that either.

I'd concentrate on the argument that they're not appropriate in this particular case because DD has a history of being better at exams than expected, rather than arguing that it should represent an absolute best case scenario rather than likeliest.