to think that predicted grades for UCAS should represent the best your DC could do, not something a bit crappy

[MargoLovebutter]

I really don't know if I'm being AIBU, but second DC is having trouble with her school being really pessimistic about her predicted grades.

The school has signed up to some scheme whereby they get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni.

DD did well in her GCSEs (having done bugger all revision), she's reasonably bright if a bit lazy but is now properly motivated to get into uni. The school seem really reluctant to give her predictions that seem perfectly achievable to me and I am the antithesis of a pushy mum!!!!!

I had no such problems with DC1, so I'm wondering if this is a new thing or what the fuck is going on?

The school has signed up to some scheme whereby they get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni. REally? They may have signed up to something with transparency about their grade predictions but being accurate is actually what is required in funding regs!

If a school is found to be habitually over estimating predicted grades then UCAS and individual colleges will start to monitor tht school more closely giving less credene to their data. I know this as I used to do just that when workig on Clearing. If it gets really bad then UCAS can start off a procedure to have the school formally admonished, staff retrained, Oftsed ratings impacted etc.

It is no-ones interest for a school to continually inflate predicted grades - no matter what your best mates may say!

Fair enough, but they under-predicted her GCSEs significantly, which prevented her from getting into the 6th form of her choice, so they have form on this! I have a question about this... which may or may not help you!

Did they under estimate or is your DD one of those students who doesn't put in full effort / output over the year and ramps it up at the end of the course / does far better in exams than in tests?

I have taught many of those ovcer the years and have had many complaints made about me by angry parents. It was always easy to show that my predicted gardes were based on poor results in a range of tests and that the student was too laid back about tests, until it mattered.

If yor DD is one of these students then she needs to recognise that she is self sabotaging, to an extent. Like math students who ignore the marks given for showing the working out. They just put the correct answer for every single question and wonder why they never 100% of the marks available!

WellButterMyArse, yes that sounds like a strong point.

She out-performed one of her AS levels and met the other two. It seems odd to me that they'd now be erring on the side of pessimism ?? I don't see how you come to that conclusion. They were right about 2 of her subjects.

When you have that chat maybe it is just the one subject you need to discuss.

I know this as I used to do just that when workig on Clearing. Ye gods that didn't make sense at all do it? They had their results at Clearing!

I meant, I used to do this when we prepped for Clearing. We used to guesstimate how many phones we'd need for Clearing. If certain schools had a lot of students apply we would increas trhe number of people we had - bear in mind this was many years ago, before UCAS had all seeing software and students could still be snuck round the Clearing regs!

A/AS levels are much harder than GCSEs. It’s possible to turn up in a written GCSE exam, not do any revision, and get a B just by remembering some of your classwork and being able to write about it convincingly. AS Levels are marked more harshly and go deeper as you are only studying 3-4 subjects and so need the same amount of revision and study as a university degree. Your child isn’t doing themselves any favours by not working consistantly and if the school has doubts about their predicted grades, in that position, I would be recommending they only apply to uni AFTER getting their results.

CuriousaboutSamphire thank you for your thoughts and it is possible that DD does self-sabotage, but in my opinion doing well in exams, despite pessimistic predictions is a good thing not a bad one.

I find it disheartening that you would think the subject that needs discussion is the one DD did better in at a public exam!!!! Not the two that hopefully she will do better in the A levels themselves. That to me suggests that you think the school being right is more important than DDs future, which is how it feels to me about the school right now too.

I'm not sure but does classroom performance contribute to predicted grades? If she isn't participating much during class/coursework isn't perfect,and just happens to be great at exams (I was the same), then her predicted grade may not be what you expect because she isn't showing what she's capable of outside the exam room.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-38223432

I think traditionally overestimating been happening - though more disadvantaged students were underestimated – so perhaps they are just being more realistic.

If it is adversely affecting her choices – I’d look into the clearing with better grades options so you are prepared if that becomes an option or maybe see about a planned gap year and applying with actual grades year later– I know there are downsides to those options.

Might also be worth talking to the school - see why they've come to these grades.

Have you asked your daughter what she has done to show her teachers that she is capable of a higher grade? Is she doing extra work? Has she done more reading other than what is in the syllabus? Is she meeting all deadlines and actively acting on feedback given? What is she doing to enhance her exam technique? Has her classwork and homework improved this term?

Just wondering, OP, if your conversations with your DD had included this?

Throughout her entire school history, DD has out-performed her targets in all end of year exams and her GCSEs.

And again, sorry to say that target grades are not the same as predicted grades. She will also have target grades too.

It's easier to bluff your way through GCSEs than it is for A levels.

GCSEs are generally pretty shallow, but most A levels are a lot deeper.

KittyVonCatsington - forgive me, I should have specified that she significantly out-performed her predicted GCSE grades, as well as her target grades.

Yes, of course I've spoken to DD. She knew she'd have to pull all the stops out this year and there has been really positive feedback about the work she is doing.

I'm willing to bet that if I put up a post saying that it is easy to bluff or fluke your way through 11 GCSEs and get good grades - only 7s, 8s (majority) & 9s - I would be flayed alive!!!!!!!

I am not sure you understaod anything I said there, @MargoLovebutter

in my opinion doing well in exams, despite pessimistic predictions is a good thing not a bad one. Yes! Obviously. But when you know the need for accurate predicted gardes then it makes sense to check that you are not goiving your teachers a false picture of your abilities. They can ONLY predict on past achievements and, if she does not do well in tests and mocks, she will get lower predicted gardes. ALL of whoch is explained by teachers over and over and over again!

I find it disheartening that you would think the subject that needs discussion is the one DD did better in at a public exam!!!! That's because you are not undersatsing what I meant. Discuss THAT subject as that os trhe one that is being incorrectly predicted. The teacher might be willing to re-evaluate the predicetd grades despite any lowe performance in the next round of tests

Not the two that hopefully she will do better in the A levels themselves. You see, the school predicted those 2 correctly and you are still suggesting that your DD underperformed, with no real evidence of that in those 2 subjects

That to me suggests that you think the school being right is more important than DDs future, which is how it feels to me about the school right now too. I have no idea how you got there! None at all!

From what you have said your DD has broadly achieved what the school said she would achieve at AS. No predicted grade constrains actual results. So if your DD IS to do better at A level then she will ahve to up her work rate, which might gove the etacher of the other subject confidence to correct the underprediction of the other subject!

If your DD understand that she has to show her potential in all subject to giver herself the best chance of having accurate predicted grades then she can work with her teachers more accurately too. They may well accept that she flourishes in exams and make that change.

So, to be accurate about what I do think it is important that the school is accurate in order to best promote DDs future and your DD has as much to do with that as the teacher of the one subject she over performed in as the other 2 teachers were accurate!

OP, do you think all students' predicted grades should be the very best of what they may be capable?

Hmm. My dd was provided with a base, realistic and aspirational expectation. Hers were: ABB, AAB and AAA. She was on an upward trajectory in 6th form having developed MH issues in yr 11 which slightly adversely affected GCSE results. She was diagnosed with ADHD at 17 and medicated. Her final results were AAA dropping about 7 UMS points. Within 20 mins she declined her RG Uni place to apply for Oxbridge. Fab gap year, got in, starts 2nd yr in a few days.

It isn't a race op. They have their whole lives ahead of them. What will be will be

A A A* don't know what happened above

forgive me, I should have specified that she significantly out-performed her predicted GCSE grades, as well as her target grades.

Yes, I read that. Makes no difference to her Linear A Level results, I'm afraid, or with her current performance.

She knew she'd have to pull all the stops out this year and there has been really positive feedback about the work she is doing.

But still no clearer as to what she has actually done to show her current teachers that she is capable of achieving those predicted grades that you want, in different, more advanced qualifications. Therein lies the problem.

forgive me, I should have specified that she significantly out-performed her predicted GCSE grades, as well as her target grades.

Those new 9-1 GCSEs where the grade boundaries had to be lowered as students nationally, struggled with them?

KittyVonCatsington - just to be absolutely clear it is not me that wants the grades it is DD. I do not want grades for her. I want to support her as best I can, hence asking the question on here, sense checking whether or not I'm being reasonable.

I don't know what problem it is that you see. It seems to me you want me to provide you with a breakdown of what DD is doing across all her subjects but I don't think that is necessary here and I don't have the time or inclination to give you a full analysis!

I believe schools should be realistic and when providing predicted grades, it should be based on work to date at that level. For example, if her current school work indicates a 'B' grade, then unless she is close to the boundary then it would be realistic to predict a B, as they are basing on current performance not 'speculated' performance. You say she she will likely perform well in the actual exams, but you can also say she could bomb them as well. There is no fundamental evidence to say on the day, with the questions, she will perform or not. Therefore you base on current known performance for that year.

I say this as someone who did the bare minimum in my English Literature A Level, with average class and homework. Despite getting a top grade in my GCSE, my teachers rightfully predicted a B for my A Level grade as my actual work in class wasn't considerate of a high grade.

I did in fact go to exceed my predicted grade (plus got the highest mark in my year for actual AS level- which they tried to take credit for obviously) but I don't think they were wrong to predict lower.

Those new 9-1 GCSEs where the grade boundaries had to be lowered as students nationally, struggled with them?

Now, your just being goady. Every other kid in the country did them too, so it is not as though she is being compared against pupils who did GCSES in 1990!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Your DD wants her predicted grades increased in common with about a million other students. Teachers have heard it all before, including ‘I will definitely work really hard this year’.

Most A-level predictions over-predict against actual outcomes. This isn’t good for students who then miss offers that they should never have been given and the stress that causes.

By all means get your DD to discuss predicted grades with her teachers, but they make the final decision in their professional opinion.

If she does overachieve, there are options open to her like going into Adjustment, or taking a gap year and reapplying.

If she didn't revise much for GCSEs she may struggle a lot at A Level as it's quite a jump. Saw this happen to a fair few bright students when I was at 6th Form.

Thank you noblegiraffe - I do think that their professional opinion is not always accurate where DD is concerned (proven by her results), but I will resist the temptation to say that!

I’m a teacher. I haven’t read the whole post so apologies if I’m repeating what has been said .

Predictions are what we think students will get based on their progress to date, test scores etc. They are not what the student is capable of / target grades as if the student hasn’t worked they may not achieve this.

It’s a professional judgement based on often years of experience. If there is a genuine reason why someone is under achieving this will be stated in the reference.

It’s important that schools are honest about students and predict accurately otherwise future predicted grades will be sen as too high from particular institutions and then all students lose out.

It’s not doing any one any favours for students or parents to push for grades higher than they are likely to achieve.