to think that predicted grades for UCAS should represent the best your DC could do, not something a bit crappy

[MargoLovebutter]

I really don't know if I'm being AIBU, but second DC is having trouble with her school being really pessimistic about her predicted grades.

The school has signed up to some scheme whereby they get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni.

DD did well in her GCSEs (having done bugger all revision), she's reasonably bright if a bit lazy but is now properly motivated to get into uni. The school seem really reluctant to give her predictions that seem perfectly achievable to me and I am the antithesis of a pushy mum!!!!!

I had no such problems with DC1, so I'm wondering if this is a new thing or what the fuck is going on?

Now, your just being goady. Every other kid in the country did them too, so it is not as though she is being compared against pupils who did GCSES in 1990!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes and LOADS of other kids achieved above their predictions in your dd's cohort. (My dd was the same cohort). The exam boards sent out some fiendish mock papers but with no ideas of grade boundaries and on the basis of those many teachers panicked when the kids did so badly and predicted much lower grades than many came out with.

To give you an example my dd's mock and predicted grades were

English Lang Mock 7 Predicted 8 Actual 9
English Lit Mock 8 Predicted 8 Actual 8
Maths Mock 6 Predicted 7 Actual 8
Science Mock 4 6 7 Predicted 7 7 7 Actual 7 8 8
French Mock 7 Predicted 7 Actual 6
RS Mock 7 Predicted 8 Actual 9
Music Mock 7 Predicted 7 Actual 8

I do think that their professional opinion is not always accurate where DD is concerned (proven by her results), but I will resist the temptation to say that! But you don't have to refrain. 1 of her 3 teachers did under predict! It won't have been malicious, it will have had some underpinning information, like test and mock results, performanc ein class etc etc. We teachers don't just stick a pin in a list!

What your and your DD have to work out, with the school, is why that happened and how to prevent it happening again.

Comefromaway so are you saying that your understanding is that most pupils who sat GCSEs in 2017 did better than their predictions? I don't see how that can be possible? If that were the case, it would mean that most pupils did better overall and I don't believe that is so, but perhaps you have a different source of information?

It will do your dd no favours to be overpredicted. If you are convinced she'll do better then she can either go into adjustment or take a gap year and apply with grades in hand.

CuriousaboutSamphire she only has A levels left to take next summer. In most of her exams to date there have been significant & consistent under-predictions. She did no revision for her AS levels and still managed to do better in one of her exams than she was predicted. I don't understand why it is hard to believe that with some application, which she is definitely showing now, she wouldn't do better?

Of course you can fluke gcses. I didn't study for any of mine (apart from maths which I studied the day of the exam) and I passed them all with high grades (a or b). Same as your daughter, smart and can retain information well.

But a levels takes more than that. And she doesn't revise, probably still isn't or at least isn't doing enough. Her teachers probably know that, so of course they won't predict high grades. But hey, hopefully the lower grades than she assumed she would get will be the kick she needs to revise. She can do it, just lazy like me.

@Margo it was because of the grading overhaul. Nobody had any experience of the new grades and relied upon the mock papers sent out as a guide. As it turned out the exam boards had a change of heart and the real papers were less onerous. So many students over achieved.

All @Comefromaway is going by is the widely reported news of the time!

She did no revision for her AS levels then that will be obvious hence low predictions. How do they know she's going to bother for the actual As?

Yep 2017 marking was a lot more generous than 2018. This may be why OP’s DC is struggling a bit now.

My understanding is predictions are often innaccurate - schoolsweek.co.uk/grade-predictions-are-unreliable-so-why-do-we-still-use-them/

The school uses ALPS and in order to keep their ALPS status, it is in their interests to under-predict. It is not in DDs interests, so I think there is a direct conflict here.

I appreciate all the input, certainly given me lots to think about.

she only has A levels left to take next summer. I understood that to be the case

In most of her exams to date there have been significant & consistent under-predictions. You are talking about GCSEs there too? In her AS levels ONE subject was under predicted.

She did no revision for her AS levels and still managed to do better in one of her exams than she was predicted. Then she is a very silly student. Linear exams make that a VERY dangerous route to take! If she discounted her AS levels then she could have found herself in a tricky position with the school, who may have decided NOT to allow her to continue! I have to wonder why she took them in the first place - many schools don't do them at all! And, as she achieved well, she is likely to assume that she can continue to do so... believe me, I taught many students who relied on memory and a good wind who fell to pieces when they reached the end of their innate understanding and reached the point where they had to actually work hard in order to learn!

I don't understand why it is hard to believe that with some application, which she is definitely showing now, she wouldn't do better? Who has said that? I have not... nobody else here either! What I HAVE said is that you are mistaking her teachers for clairvoyants! They cannot now what she will or will not do if she does not put in a more concerted effort!

That and, as I said, she is not learning good study habits. At some point she will meet an exam that she cannot easily pass, and she will not be able to learn proper revision habits in qucik time. She WILL set herself back...whether at A levels or at some time during her degree, or workplace qualifications.

She may get OK results when, with some real applicatin, shoe coul get top results. That is fine, if that is what she wants, what her future plans need. Many people take that route, there is nothing wrong with it. But she (and you) need to be sure of it!

Also GCSE pass rates fell overall in 2017, so I'm not sure what point is being made about generous marking.

The school uses ALPS and in order to keep their ALPS status, it is in their interests to under-predict. It is not in DDs interests, so I think there is a direct conflict here. ALPS is common, used in most schools. And no teacher actually likes the bloody things. But they are what they are. Your DD is no better or worse off than every other student!

BUT you have really clearly outlined why her grades have been under predicted at GCSE... and presumably in that ONE AS subject.

Try turning it round in your head. Why does DD get such predicted grades? You have told us why but don't seem to have processed that fully through the usual school procedures.

Also GCSE pass rates fell overall in 2017, so I'm not sure what point is being made about generous marking.* Not marking, grade boundaries.

And the exam boards can only drop them until someone gets 100%. So one very clever student stops the pro rata grade boundary movement.

Are these the last predicted grades she will get and will be used for any uni application? I found the predictions increased to something realistically optimistic on both my DC just before they needed to be submitted. Does she want the predicted grades for any particular course or uni? If so it may be worth discussing with her teacher's how she has previously exceeded predictions and is aiming towards a course needing ABB ( or whatever it is) so ideally needs a slightly improved prediction.

What does she need and what is she predicted?

Also GCSE pass rates fell overall in 2017, so I'm not sure what point is being made about generous marking. Not marking, grade boundaries.

Thank you CuriousaboutSamphire!
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding going on, generally. Ultimately, what matters, is those actual final grades in August.

CuriousaboutSamphire why on earth would the school not allow her to continue? She met their predictions in two exams and exceeded in the third.

I don't think she is silly at all but she is 17. She's not a loser, a drop-out or doing drugs in her spare time, she is just a bit lazy, has ADHD and finds revision particularly challenging.

What she has done is consistently out-perform targets and predictions over the 6 years she has been at the school so far. She significantly out-performed in her GCSEs - which from what I gather here was a complete fluke or bluff or to do with some mysterious over achievement by everyone, despite the actual lower pass rates!!!!!

It seems somewhat catastrophic to say that a lack of good study skills are going to set you back in life. I'm not sure I agree.

@MargoLovebutter I thought my experience here would be useful for you, although it is c. 10 years out of date. Different circumstances but I challenged one of my predicted grades. It was before A*s were brought in. In AS I got AAA, with 100% in most modules. When I came to my predicted grades my lecturers predicted me AAC. I genuinely couldn't fathom the C. The truth is that the lecturer didn't like me much and told me he 'didn't want me to become complacent'. I knew a C prediction would stop me getting my Uni of choice. I requested he change it, he refused. I went over his head (angrily) to Head of Alevels. It was changed that day. I got the A (100% on the A2 modules too)...

It seems somewhat catastrophic to say that a lack of good study skills are going to set you back in life. I'm not sure I agree They definitely help. Not so much at GCSE, but more so at A level and even more at uni.

What's the problem with applying with grades in hand if she is convinced she's been under predicted?

she has done is consistently out-perform targets and predictions

Except at her AS levels where she performed roughly as predicted, and which will inform her A-level predictions.

why on earth would the school not allow her to continue? She met their predictions in two exams and exceeded in the third. Still you misunderstand! I said her not revising was a dangerous strategy. What if she had not passed those exams?

I don't think she is silly at all but she is 17. She's not a loser, a drop-out or doing drugs in her spare time, she is just a bit lazy, has ADHD and finds revision particularly challenging. Nobody has even hinted she may be any of those thngs BUT until now only you knew that there is a reason for her to find revision dificult!

^What she has done is consistently out-perform targets and predictions over the 6 years she has been at the school so far.* Now you are going back to her GCSEs! They are gone, done with. Concentrate on where she is now.

She significantly out-performed in her GCSEs - which from what I gather here was a complete fluke or bluff or to do with some mysterious over achievement by everyone, despite the actual lower pass rates!!!!! You are not undersatdsning the point being made there. REALLY you are not! And that is misdoirecting your ire!

STOP IT! go and talk to her HoY and see how they can best support her make the changes she needs to in order to achive good A Level grades; to, ensure her predicted grades are more accurate and to get wthateve rgrades she needs for whatever it is she wants to do next.

All else is just distraction!

just to be absolutely clear it is not me that wants the grades it is DD. I do not want grades for her. I want to support her as best I can, hence asking the question on here, sense checking whether or not I'm being reasonable.

I don't know what problem it is that you see. It seems to me you want me to provide you with a breakdown of what DD is doing across all her subjects but I don't think that is necessary here and I don't have the time or inclination to give you a full analysis!

I know that it is your DD who wants the grades, obviously.

But my point being, that unless she is doing those things, teachers will not just give her the predicted grades of her choice.

She needs to be showing her teachers all that she is doing, in order to try and achieve them. Not just sitting one set of exams and then moaning about it. So many students just do this, expecting they can negotiate/argue there way to better predicted grades.

What would have been helpful to you, in your discussions with your DD, is to explain to her that she needs to:

1. Be doing extra work that demonstrates the grades she is looking for
2. Do more reading other than what is in the syllabus
3. Meet all deadlines and actively act on feedback given
4. Enhance her exam technique
5. Improve both her classwork and homework substantially.

If she hasn't or isn't doing all of the above, then her conversations with her teachers and yours with the Head of Year, will be fruitless.

Some of the new A levels are only just bedding in (dd took new Maths one this year) so there is a lack of history to base it on in some subjects. There has also been an issue of overstating predicted grades only for students to not meet them and get rejected even from insurance choice. If your dd exceeds her predictions she can always go through Adjustment if she prefers a "better" uni or reapply next year. It is normal to apply for one or two above predicted, one/two on and one or two safer to get a range of offers.