to think that predicted grades for UCAS should represent the best your DC could do, not something a bit crappy

[MargoLovebutter]

I really don't know if I'm being AIBU, but second DC is having trouble with her school being really pessimistic about her predicted grades.

The school has signed up to some scheme whereby they get kudos for estimating grades achieved accurately and it seems to me they are more interested in this than my DC getting into a good uni.

DD did well in her GCSEs (having done bugger all revision), she's reasonably bright if a bit lazy but is now properly motivated to get into uni. The school seem really reluctant to give her predictions that seem perfectly achievable to me and I am the antithesis of a pushy mum!!!!!

I had no such problems with DC1, so I'm wondering if this is a new thing or what the fuck is going on?

Our school negotiates predicted grades with the student

I am finding it hard to understand why it is that you are meeting with the head of 6th form? - mine would be bloody mortified if I went into school to whinge about predicted grades. She has negotiated up one of her predicted grades to get to where she needs them to be for the courses she wants to apply for.

At my sons school, they get about 95% 7/8/9 at GCSE because it’s one of these schools that’s very selective at 11 plus. DS got mainly 7s in the mocks. Then he worked extremely hard from Xmas to May, as did all his friends. It was crazy, to be honest. They wouldn’t take breaks. They all spurred each other on - there is about ten of them in this group, girls and boys. It was non-stop. DS was expecting 7s and 8s because he’s not particularly outstanding in that school, but all of them got all “9s” in everything.

Now they’re doing A-levels and it is a noticeable step change, for sure. They are not allowed to do 4 A-levels either - just 3, plus an EPQ. None of them are finding it easy, but they’ve all been told to work consistently because, unlike GCSEs, you can’t just make it all up in the last term or so. It’s a lot, it really is, especially with extra-curricular stuff as well.

I take it your daughter will be coming to the meeting with you OP?

I definitely agree that there is much better chance of getting higher predictions if it comes from the student. If the mum goes in you'll give the impression of the student as not adult enough to be prepared for university.

Is it possible your dd needs the lower predicted grades to motivate her?

What did she get at GCSE and AS though? Without that it's hard to see if you're justified or not.

Do you understand the issues with predicting grades that she doesn't get? And that even if she is predicted lower than you or she would like, she will still get offers? In other words try and think what problem you are trying to solve.

Our predictions are always best case scenario. Based on what we think they could get if they work their hardest and all goes well. TBH if our kids pester enough the Head of 6th Form tends to raise the predictions anyway. Should definitely be an optimistic prediction though.

Yes, DD will definitely be at the meeting. She's the one who is worried about the predicted grades.

titchy she got 11 GCSEs at 7s, 8s (majority) and 9s. She got B & two Cs in her AS levels.

What is she predicted?

3 Cs

What does she need for her University course? At risk of annoying you again, has she done all her research on the various universities that offer the course she wants and weighed up similar courses?

I ask as, for many years, I had to cajole students into being realistic and thorough over this. Very many preferred to remain oblivious to the need for plan b, c etc

What seemed to them to be me banging on about it was just me, and all others involved, trying to get them to see the reality of the situation.

Does she have any evidence that she's capable of higher than BCC then? In-class exams, spot tests, homework? To be honest if she doesn't, it would be difficult to justify a wholesale upgrade across the board. If she'd gone from 7+ at GCSE and got Ds or Es at AS I'd say something had gone spectacularly wrong, but that trajectory isn't out of the ordinary - rule of thumb tends to be one grade lower than that subject at GCSE, although sciences can often be more of a drop.

Trouble is, she can say she's wants to go to university and she's worried about the predictions and that she's motivated to work hard all she likes - but the evidence, when push came to shove, i.e. actual Level 3 exams which the unis she applies to will see and judge her on - just wasn't there was it?

Personally I'd focus on getting one subject up - the one where she was closest to the next grade up, and make sure she has a decent range of unis to apply to. Consider adjustment or even a gap year if results end up being much better.

3 Bs

Cross post - OK then definitely argue the B achieved should be predicted a B - I'd agree that's unfair, possibly argue one more as well. but not all three.

OK if she needs 3 x Bs that's not such an ask. Likely even predicted 3 x Cs will get her a full suite of offers. (Check the offer likelihood calculator on UCAS.)

That seems unfair tbh. If the a levels she got Cs in are subjects she got 8s at gcse then should have thought Bs were perfectly possible.

My dd didnt do as well as yours at gcse and she's hoping for AAB!

Do you think she’ll get offers with 3 Cs for predicted on a 3 B course titchy? It is a popular course. She thinks the 3 Cs shows a lack of confidence from her school, particularly in view of achieving a B in one of them at AS and that she’ll get rejections as a result.

all the advice I am getting is that GCSEs are totally irrelevant! Apparently, they are the past and mean nothing, particularly as she did well in them by fluke and bluff!

It is a shame that that is all you have taken from those posts. Those posts are in relation to you trying to use your DD's GCSE grades to dictate her current predicted A Level grades.

All posters are pointing out is that they are not used when teachers are producing predicted grades, due to the fact that they are studied in a different way (most revision done in class or booster sessions after school, for example) and that in the past two years, with the introduction of the new 9-1 GCSEs, the grades have been generated differently to how they have been before (which is a whole other thread!).

I wasn't being goady previously, as you accused me of being. The year your DD sat her GCSEs, the grade boundaries were far far lower to where they had ever been before, which you can check, because the papers across the subjects were much harder for the students nationally, so even more reason not to base the fact she surpassed her predicted grades back then (because her predicted grades at that time would have been a guess at best. There were many many many threads on Mumsnet about it, at the time). This is not to diminish your DD's achievements. Those are her results and she should be proud of them. It is just difficult to understand the mess Michael Gove left and why it is so different to students taking their GCSEs even just a year earlier.

Of course GCSEs are relevant as qualifications themselves, especially as more and more universities are having to use them because most Year 12s don't sit public AS exams anymore. For the ones that do, such as your DD, those grades are wiped anyway, should they carry them on to the Linear A Level. No longer are A Levels split into 'some marks coming from Year 12 and the rest from Year 13'.
This might help to understand why your DD currently has the 3 Cs for her subjects (the AS levels are much easier than the actual A Levels) and help you and here see what you can change, in order to increase them.

I would also like to add, that she can also apply to courses that are asking for Bs etc. They do give offers currently to those with predicted grades lower than advertised. A stellar personal statement helps with this. Best to contact the courses she is interested in, to check. This can also ease some of her pressure.

Sorry, cross posts with titchy. Agree completely.

Do you think she’ll get offers with 3 Cs for predicted on a 3 B course titchy? It is a popular course. She thinks the 3 Cs shows a lack of confidence from her school, particularly in view of achieving a B in one of them at AS and that she’ll get rejections as a result.

Yep. If it was that popular it's entry grades would be higher - bluntly. As I say try the ucas tool.

The predictions made by schools/colleges should be the realistic grades you child can achieve if works hard. They will use classwork, end of module tests and marked homework etc. Are the grades they have predicted consistent with those marks? If there ens of unit test, homework and essays are all being marked at B for example then that should be their predicted grade. In the end your child's actual grades will determine where they go as they can get in through clearing if grades higher than predicted. Three or four different teachers will have predicted your child's grades. Do you really think they all got it wrong?

They have got it wrong in the past, hence why I’m questioning it.

They have got it wrong in the past, hence why I’m questioning it.

Of course they have - 75% of predicted grades are wrong! Can't blame them for trying to improve their predictions.

How close to the border between B and C was she in the two subjects she got Cs in? Has she spoken to the teachers about why she likely got the Cs and where she needed to improve to get Bs?