Overwhelmingly likely, despite the scare stories on this thread.
This annoys me. It’s not scare stories. It’s what happened. I’ve literally just been through it twice over the last month. It was bloody horrendous - in fact if you search my username you’ll find my multiple posts about chicken pox, posts from the night where my non-verbal son screamed and hit himself in the head for seven hours straight. Where we spent hours waiting for 111 to call back but when they finally did he’d fallen asleep for 10 minutes and they closed the case. Posts from the next day where the GP was really dismissive, and later that day where a severe infection sprung up in less than an hour, or the days afterwards where he couldn’t stand or even sit upright because of the pain and swelling. If we had waited until the next morning to seek help because we hadn’t seen it before bed, he would have been at serious risk of sepsis.
His twin’s body is covered in scars, he has several very deep scars on his face.
These aren’t scare stories. If you decide not to vaccinate because you think the risk of severe complications is low enough you’re not worried, fine. But don’t dismiss people relating their experiences because it’s not what you want to hear.
Severe complications requiring hospitalisation are rare, death even more rare, but children being horribly ill for a week plus is not rare. The GP said she’d been seeing children every day with severe chicken pox / secondary skin infections for a few weeks by that point.
We’ve had an endless stream of colds, chest infections, ear infections, even norovirus hitting all four of us at once, and these were nothing compared to chicken pox. The only thing worse that we’ve had is DT2 contracting whooping cough as a tiny preemie.
Vaccinate or don’t, but I think when people say “mild illness”, they think of a nasty cold with a few itchy spots. I know a couple of people who’ve had that experience but far more who’ve had a horrid time, even if they don’t feature in hospitalisation statistics.
And aside from the loss of earnings, the hardest thing for me was being quarantined for more than three weeks, it was awful!