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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think the only people who want 'Nn Deal' have no idea what this means?

650 replies

KennDodd · 22/01/2019 17:47

And don't believe you if you tell them. Facts and laws just seem to be wafted away as irrelevant.

OP posts:
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8
User758172 · 23/01/2019 00:08

@Tolleshunt

I do share your worries for the future, and I didn’t vote to Leave.

I understand your analogy; you place your trust in those who are experts in their field and expect to hear unvarnished truths and unbiased facts from them. But I don’t. I believe everyone in power in modern politics to be completely self-interested and selfish, and I do not trust a word they say. I do not trust the media to be an unbiased and impartial source of information. So I have only my own mind and judgement to rely on.

My qualification is my PhD History from UCL. I’m sure you ask so you can dismiss me as uninformed, and people here who disagree with me are always quick to tell me I know nothing about history. I’m not an economist, I’m not a political scientist, but I know my history very well indeed.

mobyduck · 23/01/2019 00:58

Would it really be harmful to return to an older, gentler way of life? We don't need to be whizzing about in cars, we could take a pony and trap to market and sell vegetables in exchange for real organic butchers produce, and make hearty stews like we used to.
And work in the fields, and drink cider as we bring the harvest home.
Let Johnny Foreigner work his way to heart attacks if he wants to, we prefer an older style of life!
Leave means Leave!

Quietrebel · 23/01/2019 01:11

Mobyduck
Assuming your post is in earnest, you forget your old model would never sustain 65million people.
There's no going back to the past. Nothing will be gentler post brexit, nothing. The world is only about to get more ruthless and the UK is making itself vulnerable at the worst possible time.

Quietrebel · 23/01/2019 01:32

From the Daily Mail: no deal to wipe off 139 BILLION from the UK economy. Do you remember the red bus and the 350m a week for the NHS? Well, 139 billion is 397 weeks worth of that, or 7.6 YEARS. We spend 12billion a year on EU membership fees.
139 billion is 11.5 YEARS OF EU MEMBERSHIP.
THATS HOW MUCH NO DEAL BREXIT WOULD COST!

bellinisurge · 23/01/2019 06:38

P&O is changing its trading flag, Sony is moving headquarters to Amsterdam, Dyson is moving to Singapore. Still all going well, no Dealers?

MyMumDimensionJumps · 23/01/2019 06:52

Sick of the people who want a no deal saying 'it Will be crap for a few years, but worth it in the end'.

These are people who have already raised their kids and own their houses outright and at the end of their careers most likely. Selfishly couldn't give a shit about school leavers finding work, families having to make ends meet with the risk of losing their job lurking on the horizon and young (and older) people getting on the housing ladder during this time. Why should the majority of the country suffer for 'just a few years' unnecessarily for what is most likely the opinions of a small amount of people? I think austerity has done enough to ensure that already.

Mistigri · 23/01/2019 07:08

In the news this morning:

"The chief executive of the civil service has said the government will never be fully prepared for Brexit as he revealed plans to move up to 5,000 staff into an emergency command and control centre in the event of no deal."

Tolleshunt · 23/01/2019 07:12

MrsAriadneOliver I have every respect for your academic achievements, and ordinarily I do think they would put you in the position to have more of a clue than your average Joe when trying to predict the possible outcomes of this shitshow. However, given the epic complexities of the economics involved in this, in our modern world, I really do think nobody can predict the eventual outcome, or even the majority of the events along the way. Some economists will be able to make more of an informed prediction than the rest of us. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be correct. Roosevelt's plea for a one-handed economist seems peculiarly apt here.

I do have a background in government/ macroeconomics, and I can see so many massive risks, and unknowns with this that it is truly terrifying. I am also aware of the limitations of my knowledge. I could be wrong in my worries. But the risks are so huge if I'm not that it makes hurtling towards this massive unknown a huge, unjustified act of recklessness.

The kind of comments you made in your first post about it being 'worth it in the end' and the assumption that it will eventually come good are the kind of glib, naive complacency we have seen so much of from the public (and - far worse - some of of our politicians Angry ) , based on the sum total of fuck all knowledge or critical thinking, that it makes me despair.

it just underscores the fact that it was utterly ridiculous to put Brexit to a public vote in the first place. So many people do not understand what this means for us, and what even a modest drop in our GDP and standard of living will mean for all of us, but particularly those who are poorer and more vulnerable.

I despair. I despair of our politicians. I despair of our population. I despair of our culture.

It feels like the lunatics are running the asylum. How so many are capable of such naive optimism is mind-boggling. As it seems our leaders are doggedly intent on dragging us into this, despite very indication it's likely to be harmful, I want some of whether they're on.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 23/01/2019 07:14

RE: neoliberalism

The UK is the most neo liberal country in Europe. It wasn’t the EU selling off council houses, privatising public services, implementing austerity and destroying industry. All things leavers complain about.

The UK could shape the EU as a fully participating player but there has never been the political will to do so, nor ironically has there be the will amongst British voters to kick out neo liberal governments! So it looks like people will go on complaining without looking for solutions. Leaving the EU will exasperatethe UKs problems not solve them.

Tolleshunt · 23/01/2019 07:17

Oh, and I don't 'place my trust in experts and expect to hear unvarnished truth'. On the contrary. Like you, I take information from a variety of sources, and weigh it carefully and critically, depending on its provenance. I don't trust politicians. I do have respect for some economic experts and academics. It doesn't mean I uncritically swallow their opinions.

I have the relevant knowledge and background to be able to do weigh the evidence and predictions in this instance. The vast majority do not, as it is just too complex and technical. But, as with you it seems, the Dunning-Kruger effect seems to be in play.

surferjet · 23/01/2019 07:18

Why are you posting your anger on a parenting site to a handful of leave voters who are basically taking no notice?

Go & shout outside the Houses of Parliament - that’s what I’d be doing if I was as angry as you.

bellinisurge · 23/01/2019 07:24

@surferjet , I've done my bit by helping people do sensible proportionate prepping for Brexit with advice on here. Because I am also a human with opinions, I am talking to other humans with opinions. Some share my feelings about this shit show. Others don't. I don't live in London and can't afford to rock up in Westminster. I've written to my MP.
I'm angry, frustrated and feel sick at how things are going. I have a family who rely on me being calm and handling it all. I vent on here. Got a problem with that?

Mistigri · 23/01/2019 07:24

Some economists will be able to make more of an informed prediction than the rest of us. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be correct

Crucially, while some leavers seem to think that predictions can only be wrong in one direction, it's perfect possible that economists have underestimated the impact.

It's clear that forecasts made about Brexit impact are highly dependent upon assumptions - eg the modelling of the impact of increased waiting times at Dover, in which a 20 second increase in the assumed waiting time in the model changes the outcome from a "manageable" delay to an unrecoverable situation.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 23/01/2019 07:28

This seems to be doing the facebook rounds, so some people do have some fairly concrete ideas about what they dislike about the EU

Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU
The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.

Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK, I used to contract out to many, then the work just dried up as they were sold off to companies from France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, etc., and now we don't even teach electronic technology for technicians any more, due to EU regulations.

I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there.
I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.

Find something that's gone the other way, I've looked and I just can't. If you think the EU is a good idea,
1/ You haven't read the party manifesto of The European Peoples' Party.
2/ You haven't had to deal with EU petty bureaucracy tearing your business down.
3/ You don't think it matters.

OUT OF EUROPE we need to be out of it

CuriousaboutSamphire · 23/01/2019 07:32

My opinion is much as Mistigirls post. Nobody knows. Assumptions are being made and could be all sorts of of wrong in either direction!

As I have said before I am absolutely fucking horrified at the way s many politicians have abandoned their constituents on order to score their own political points!

Whichever way you voted your MP has not served you well. Had they all chosen to work together to get the very best deal, the very best outcome instead of all this pointless bickering we may have found ourselves in a far better position.

If there is a revolution I shall be womanning the wall!

surferjet · 23/01/2019 07:32

bellinisurge

I haven’t got a problem with you at all.
I just feel it’s a bit late in the day to still be ‘blaming’ leave voters for this.
It’s the governments mishandling of brexit that’s to blame, direct your anger at them!

But the way things are going I doubt we’ll ever leave, so all this has been for nothing.

Justanotherlurker · 23/01/2019 07:39

The UK is the most neo liberal country in Europe. It wasn’t the EU selling off council houses, privatising public services, implementing austerity and destroying industry. All things leavers complain about

Citation needed, the housing crisis is not ljust a UK issue, France is having to open up it's railway due to computing rules and if you think it was just the UK implementing austerity then you obviously are cherry picking information to suit your agenda

Justanotherlurker · 23/01/2019 07:42

To still grasp at the straw of neo liberalism is bad and ignore the neo liberal dream of the EU shows you're just as I'll informed as leavers and bendy bananas

bellinisurge · 23/01/2019 07:46

@surferjet , I have a personal list of who is to blame. I've written to my MP.
My in vain hope is that for all the bullshit and bluster, at least one No Dealer is looking at the suggestions on the Prepper topic and elsewhere (3 day buffer of food etc) and doing something about it. So that there is greater calm at the shops and no one is getting themselves into avoidable trouble that ends up at A&E. Means that the people who may actually need help, get it.

Patroclus · 23/01/2019 07:48

You dont have a degree in economics do you Nicholas

greendale17 · 23/01/2019 07:54

I don’t really care anymore

GrammarTeacher · 23/01/2019 07:55

It should never have happened. I note that none of the leaders on the thread have addressed the GFA. Is it because they don't know or they don't care?

Mistigri · 23/01/2019 08:08

they don't know or they don't care

It's both ... I have yet to encounter a leaver who understands what the GFA did, how it did it and why, or who cares about any of those questions.

No dealers are by definition fundamentalists who are not interested in compromise. The GFA was all about compromise: as one of the northern Irish people I follow on twitter put it the other day, talking about the GFA: "Everyone lost something. Therefore, everyone gained"

GrammarTeacher · 23/01/2019 08:13

I was told by a leader that only terrorists pardoned by Blair care about the GFA. No fucking clue.
I am quite angry about the whole thing to be honest. I am European and British and then Scottish. But it looks like I may only get to be one of those in the future and if Indyref2 happens I will have no say as live in the south.
I can't believe people thought something so complex would be as simple as just leave