that it has just hit me that this time next year I wont be an EU citizen

[garethsouthgatesmrs]

I know it's yet another brexit thread but it genuinely just hit me that it's actually happening THIS YEAR! I am truly gutted. Would love someone with political knowledge to come on and reassure me that it actually won't be that bad. I have 3 children who have to live with the repercussions.

buble is on jules holland-this has to be a good sign

@layla9000, by all means say you want to leave the EU but please don’t spout nonsense that the UK will be economically better off. 99.9 % of Economists are united that the the GDP in the UK within this generation at the very least and probably more generations to come will shrink. It’s not scaremongering, it’s economic fact. The money the UK pay tofor membership of the EU is paid back in increased prosperity and thus higher tax receipts.

Even arch Brexiters like Jason Rees Mogg acknowledges the UK economy will suffer for at least 50 years. The poorest will bear the largest brunt. The Rees Mogg of the world have financial wealth to buffer the economic storms ahead and even make money on shorting against the UK pound.

As for having control of our laws, the UK already has full control of major areas such as tax, welfare state, education. Other areas the UK participates in sharing a common rule book and regularity alignment to factialiate trade. Also no nation stands alone in today’s world unless they want to be like North Korea. As soon as a nation trades with another there will be rules to follow. Even on WTO alone (which will be an economic disaster for the UK) rules must be adhered to. UK as a member of NATO has rules they must follow.

Leatherandsilk
and that we can offer more migration opportunities to the whole world
What has the UK's external immigration policy got to do with Brexit?
The £30,000 a year rule came from Theresa May. It will stay in place.

The EU has blood on their hands when it comes to immigration policy in its selfishness.
Could you explain where the EU sets immigration policy? Which piece of legislation?

I know plenty of lawyers (I am one) and quite a few economists. Not one supports Brexit or thinks it is any way a good thing

So what? Are you implying only stupid, uneducated people voted to Leave?

My brothers are both lawyers, my father is a lawyer and three grandparents university professors. All voted to Leave.

Can't wait to leave . Let's stop whining and Crack on. No shit backstop deals just get out.

@user1483972886
What changes in your day to day life are you most looking forward to from Brexit?

All the happy Leave voters remind me of the people who voted Tory when they said they would cut benefits and then were horrified to discover that benefits include their Tax Credits and Child Benefit!

It will be your pensions, your working rights, your food chain and your travel restrictions just as much as anyone else's.

Ta1kinPeace
'The study estimates that an average of 58% of fish and shellfish caught in the UK’s water was landed by fishing boats from other EU countries each year between 2012 and 2014. This is said to represent about 650,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish worth over £400 million each year. In the same period, UK fishing boats were estimated to have landed an average of 90,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish, worth £100 million, caught in other EU member states’ waters
each year.'
Source;UK Seas Fishery Statistics published by the House of Commons

Read this and think about it.

So what? Are you implying only stupid, uneducated people voted to Leave?

Not stupid, but there is a correlation between lower education and voting Leave. Of course this also a function of the socio-economic implications of having a lower/higher level of education.

Our findings confirm a negative relationship between education and voting Leave: the higher the level of one’s education, the lower the likelihood of them voting Leave. Our findings, however, reject the dichotomous view of the low-educated Brexiter vs the high-educated Remainer, by showing that two groups with intermediate levels of education (voters with good GSCEs and A-levels) were more pro-Leave than the low-educated (those with no formal education and with low GSCE grades).

therewillbetime
58% of fish and shellfish caught in the UK’s water was landed by fishing boats from other EU countries
Because British fishermen sold their rights at auction and moved to Southern Spain with the dosh
Do not blame the buyers for the I'm all right Jack attitude of the sellers

Brexit will not magically bring back fishing jobs
because Brits do not like razor clams and herring

Posted without link! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/

Get. A. Grip.

I'm bored of the negative stereotyping of leavers as stupid racist northerners and remains are all labour voting socialists from London.
I don't expect brexit to effect my day to day life but I look forward to being removed from some of the EU bureaucracy and inter dependence.

@user1483972886
I don't expect brexit to effect my day to day life but I look forward to being removed from some of the EU bureaucracy and inter dependence.
Such as ?
What are you expecting to change?
What bureaucracy do you want removed first?

I'm bored of the negative stereotyping of leavers as stupid racist northerners and remains are all labour voting socialists from London

There are brexiteers from all over the country.
I wouldn’t have thought ken Clarke, annasoubry, paddy ashdown, John major, most of the civil service, most of the business community, most scientist and academics were particularly labour voting socialists either. Strange perception to have.

Such as any non English EU student in Scotland? Nope I've not seen an out cry.
On the subject of Scottish unis being tuition free for EU students. It's not quite as it's portrayed. EU countries (and tgat still includes Scotland) can't discriminate between home students and EU students, therefore what was mostly intended for Scottish students became available to EU students as well. However, the unintended consequence has been increased demand to get into Scottish unis and I'm pretty sure those subsidised places are capped. So it's really hard to get in if you're an EU student as it's almost like getting a scholarship.

A close relative of mine is high up in government. We've already got trade deals agreed with New Zealand and France, as well as others. France won't say so publicly yet because they need to show a certain 'face'. It'll all be fine.

@BrexitBrexitReadAllAboutIt
We've already got trade deals agreed with New Zealand and France, as well as others
Absolute bullshit
France is not leaving the EU so cannot sign trade deals.

Because British fishermen sold their rights at auction and moved to Southern Spain with the dosh

And because the Tory Government in the 1980s refused to join the EU boat scrappage scheme, which meant that retiring fisherman sold their boats and attached quotas perfectly legally to European fishermen - all because under British, not EU, regulations, if you bought the boat, you also got the licence to fish and a guaranteed share of the national quota.

Ted Heath sold out our fishing rights to the EU decades ago. None of the fisherman that I know have moved, or are contemplating moving to Spain. Interested to know where you got your 0.5% figure from. The Guardian perhaps?

The French can't sign a separate trade deal. We have to make a new one with NZ because the current one was via the EU.
If your close relative is "high up in the government " @BrexitBrexitReadAllAboutIt and they don't know that , we are all fucked.

I voted Remain and was an arch remainer for a good 18 months. More recently I’ve started to change my mind. I’m much less bothered now about leaving, and after tons of research and discussions with a variety of leaders I can understand just how patronising and antagonising Remainers’ (including me, formerly) attitude of “Leavers didn’t understand what they were voting for / Remainers are less educated” is. Those kind of comments really do not help.

NOBODY knows what will happen after we leave, expert or otherwise. There are way too many unpredictable factors at play. It is impossible to say with accuracy what the longer term impact of this will be. I would suggest it will be neither as good as some of the arch-Brexiteers suggest or as bad as the Remainers believe.

Anyway, we need to go for it and make it work. I am not in favour of a second vote or stopping it completely. It needs to happen. I hope that May’s deal goes through because business needs to be able to plan for the longer term and the sooner they can do that the better.

There are way too many unpredictable factors at play.

If that sentence was included in any business pitch, it would be 100% rejected so why should it be good enough for an entire country? Wake up !

Bluesky writes, I know we are heading towards amazing opportunities as global, dynamic global players.

A question that needs to be asked is would having less access to the single market and customs union as we enjoy as a member of the EU be outweighed by freedom to negotiate our own trading arrangements with other countries? A simple bit of maths shows the answer is no. The EU already has FTAs covering nearly 60% of the UK’s trade, including the EU itself. EU have just signed up a trade deal with Japan meaning this has increased further. It can’t possibly make sense to have less good arrangements with the 60- 70% in return for slightly better arrangements with the 30 - 20%. Note free trade agreements as a stand alone country are never as frictionless as being part of a powerful trading block such as the EU. Customs and administrative barriers will never disappear completely.

It is estimated the single market is plausibly worth 5% of GDP. The Commission says an ambitious EU deal with the US will boost GDP by 0.5% in ten years’ time. With Japan by a bit more, 0.8%. With India about 0.1%. The orders of magnitude are different and it simply isn’t worth jeopardising access to the single market for the sake of global trade.

In addition the negotiating realities the UK faces as a sole nation need to. be faced. After leaving, the UK will have to renegotiate trading arrangements simultaneously with many major countries, including the EU in a short window. Britain will be the applicant and so it will be Britain that has to make the concessions to get the deal. True, other countries will want deals too, but they won’t be under anything like the same time pressure and can afford to make us sweat.

As a Remainer, I am not saying the EU is a perfect institution and there are no areas that need reforming, find me any perfect system in the world. However, when I listen to experts in trade and finance the majority clearly argue the UK will struggle to succeed on its own. Our global economy is one of powerful trade blocs - the EU, China, US, being outside them means a poorer country. I haven’t done years of study in international trade or economics, but I will listen to those who have and if the majority make it clear the UK are still better off in the EU than out then I will believe them.

Finally, I find it interesting that the Greek Finance Minister at the time of the Greek bailout crisis with the EU in 2015, Yanks Varoufaksis, who had epic struggles with the EU and is critical of aspects the EU, still does not call for the dismantling of the EU. He calls for reform. He has publicly said that the UK economy will fare better as a member than out and to

• accidentally posted my comment before finishing, so to end >

..and to disengage when we have been an active member for 45 years is madness. In fact he is putting himself up for election as an EU Parliament MEP this April on a ticket of reform.

Just checking back since this morning - has anyone claiming they can’t wait for Brexit been able to come up with a positive change yet? Anyone?

Oh.....

Just one thing would do really. Anything at all (but don’t say sovereignty, please)!

As for the accusations aimed at the sinister MNers with an agenda to push project fear - well, it’s not a prediction, it’s already happening....

The value of our home has fallen by £300k in the last 2 months. This is in the London Borough of Richmond-Upon-Thames which has not seen house price falls in the 16 years since I’ve lived here. It’s unprecedented.

DH has had to mainly close down his City Index trading account and share portfolio because, for the first time in 18 years, he was almost “stopped out” due to volatility and the markets apparently unable to recover. We are far from being the only ones. I’m talking about real people who have lost £100s of thousands in the space of a month. This is not speculation - it’s happened.

Bankers and investors we know are invariably are making plans to get money out if the UK. Millions of £ are already flooding out of the economy. Italy has a scheme where you can pay a one-off, flat rate of tax to move your money there and pay no further income tax. You don’t have to be mainly domiciled there either.

The destructive uncertainty which has already hit London house prices and investment will surely ripple out to the rest of the UK - to places far less able to withstand recession. Brexit hasn’t even started yet, but the looming recession is tangible, here in London at least. It’s utterly depressing and, yet again, it’s the most vulnerable in society that will bear the brunt.
Those with the means to get their money out, will do so, if they haven’t already.