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AIBU?

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Original poster

To ask whether you think Theresa May’s deal will make it through parliament?

146 replies

wondering1101 · 30/11/2018 22:02

In your opinion - will Theresa May’s deal be voted through parliament, and if not, what do you think will happen?

What would you like to happen?

(I know it’s been done to death, but I can’t believe what an important juncture we are at).

OP posts:
Elfontheshelfiswatchingyoutoo · 02/12/2018 17:42

I actually hope it does get through and then it can be tinkered with after.

Right now the thought of an anarchist corbyn government on top of brexit terrifies me.

We will go under in utter chaos, the pound will really tank.. City analysts have said it would be catastrophic.

It will be carnage. Brexit doesn't frighten me. A corbyn government + brexit terrifies me.

Elfontheshelfiswatchingyoutoo · 02/12/2018 17:45

enthusiasmdisturbed

I wholeheartedly agree there should have been across party committee.

Original poster
wondering1101 · 02/12/2018 17:46

Yes really, why during the past two years did we have to be hit with Corbyn as well.

I guess that similarly to Brexit, he is in part a product of Tory austerity.

OP posts:
EnthusiasmIsDisturbed · 02/12/2018 18:01

I don’t see May as toast at all

I think she is looking stronger her position especially since the EU backed the plan

If it came to an election I think she would safely win

Walkingdeadfangirl · 02/12/2018 18:02

We are in a prison.
We have decided to Escape.
No Deal = Freedom
May's Deal = Parole for a few years.

Norway style deal = Open prison, with conjugal visits.
Remain = Supermax prison for life.

akerman · 02/12/2018 18:41

elfontheshelf - what terrifies me is Brexit and a Tory government. I don't trust Corbyn. I don't like Corbyn. I don't find him competent. However, I don't think he is fundamentally callous. I can't bear the idea of the Tories continuing to pummel the poor and the disabled - those who are really vulnerable - any longer, and Brexit gives them the perfect opportunity to strip away even more protections. And nothing I've seen of the Tories in this whole sorry saga gives me any confidence at all.

akerman · 02/12/2018 18:45

talkinpeece - your plane and parachute analogy is spot on.

single - you say that I just choose to read the parts of the impact studies that support my views, yet you also say that every single one is worst case scenario. If you have links to more optimistic and credible (ie not Westmonster/ Breitbart or the Express) impact studies, I'd be more than happy to read them. I'd actually love to be proved wrong, as I'm scared shitless about what Brexit will do to us as a nation.

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 19:13

akerman I do my best

walkingdead
How does one decide to escape from prison?
and your version of Freedom involves being on the run from the authorities for the rest of your life
parole - do many escapees get parole ?
you need to plan better Wink

ResponsibleMushroomForager · 02/12/2018 19:29

EnthusiasmDisturbed - the EU are backing the WA because they feel sorry for TMay. She's a figure of pity.

I also pray think Corbyn will soon be toast and a grown-up like Keir Starmer will be leader soon.

BoneyBackJefferson · 02/12/2018 19:38

akerman

The analogy being spot on depends on which side of the debate you are sitting on.

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 19:40

Boneyback
On another thread we have a Leave supporter saying that planning cannot start until AFTER Brexit.
Your thoughts ?
as I know you have more thoughts than most other leavers put together!

BoneyBackJefferson · 02/12/2018 19:50

Talkinpeece

My thoughts in no particular order.

We had a referendum because a man had a strop with the EU and his party.

Because he had a strop no checks and measures where put in place.

Both sides of the referendum were frankly useless.pointless and whichever side you support that should be recognised as a fact.

Nobody thought that leave would win.

There is more but the bit that you are looking for is this

Article 50 should not have been triggered until we had a firm plan as to what we wanted in place and what we are negotiating for.

QueenDoris · 02/12/2018 19:52

So it won't make it through parliament, May won't resign because she is a 'bloody difficult woman', there won't be a Tory leadership challenge because the ERG can't get their shit together, Article 50 will be extended so that May can do more negotiation, she will get some concession on a minor technicality that nobody understands, it will come back to parliament and she will lose again, she still won't resign (the bloody difficult woman thing), ERG still won't get their shit together so no leadership election, she will lose a vote of confidence so a GE, she will lead the Tories into the GE with the slogan 'Strongish and a not too wobbly', Corbyn will tend to his tomatoes, another hung parliament, Tory minority government, Article 50 extended again as time is running out, more negotiation, minor technical changes, proposal loses vote in the house, no one sure what to do, May makes a speech outside No 10 saying she will see this through, entire cabinet resigns, Larry the Downing Street cat made Home Secretary as no one else can be found to do the job, Corbyn makes a speech where he promises that if he was PM the EU would grant us magic bean status, another GE as we haven't had one for a few weeks, May still PM, eventually she agrees to a new referendum, referendum is a dead heat, someone from the Lib Dems makes a speech but no one knows who they are, Corbyn tends to his tomatoes, SNP declare a unilateral declaration of independence but no one notices as by this time I'm a Celebrity is back on

I think that is the most likely outcome

BoneyBackJefferson · 02/12/2018 19:52

Talkinpeece

by "we" I mean remainers and leavers. I know that that is pretty much impossible.

And I wonder if the some of this is part of a way to divide the population.

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 20:00

Boneyback
Article 50 should not have been triggered until we had a firm plan as to what we wanted in place and what we are negotiating for.
Phew
I knew you would talk sense.
And yes, the continual search for lack of compromise among the elected representatives is depressing and concerning.
Its almost as if they do not want to heal the country.

EnthusiasmIsDisturbed · 02/12/2018 20:06

So those involved in the discussions around UK leaving that will impact the EU hugely are prepared to back the plan because they pity May

That is ridiculous. They might pity her but not enough to break up with EU it’s not good for any country in the EU

I would like Starmer to be leader I think he is a potential PM but not right now not while Momentum are ruining Labour and sadly they will run Labour to the ground before their is a shift towards Labour being more centre and electable to lead

BoneyBackJefferson · 02/12/2018 20:07

Talkinpeece

There is always common ground, but sometimes it needs to be looked for.

This whole debacle has split an entire country and whatever happens the ramifications of that will last for generations.

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 20:13

This whole debacle has split an entire country and whatever happens the ramifications of that will last for generations.
and at such cost

feellikeanalien · 02/12/2018 20:13

To be honest, no matter what happens the UK has caused itself irreparable damage as far as the rest of the world is concerned.

Our political leaders have been show to be opportunistic and power hungry and will use any occasion for party political benefit. Both main parties have shown that the good of the country is not their first priority.

If we do remain we will never be taken seriously by the EU again and any influence we may have had will disappear. I read somewhere that the rebates we have are gradually going to be phased out (not just for the UK but any rebates).

As you can see I find the whole situation totally depressing.

Walkingdeadfangirl · 02/12/2018 20:29

How does one decide to escape from prison?
By getting together with 17.4 million people, overwhelming the guards and making a run for it. Sadly it is looking like we are going to have to fight our way out the last bit. But hey ho, one last charge!

Freedom involves being on the run from the authorities for the rest of your life
The plan is to escape to an independent UK and live our lives free from the tyranny of the EU overlords.

Remain = staying on the plane till it lands
We never chose to board the prison plane and if we don't grab the chance to escape now, we will be in the air until we crash. No thanks.

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 20:34

The plan is to escape to an independent UK and live our lives free from the tyranny of the EU overlords.
Which particular things are you looking forward to that you cannot have now?

Holidayshopping · 02/12/2018 20:35

Tories will gain a large majority and not need the DUP

I would find this the least likely scenario of any mentioned!

DRE56322 · 02/12/2018 20:38

I don't think it will. I don't want a new ref, either, though. I voted remain (and would again) but I have a sinking feeling leave would win again.

I think whats most likely to happen is May will be booted, and whoever takes her place will ask for an extension of negotiations. Then, who knows.

Holidayshopping · 02/12/2018 20:41

I think that if there was a second referendum, Remain would win.

Walkingdeadfangirl · 02/12/2018 20:43

Which particular things are you looking forward to that you cannot have now? Confused Being out of the EU. Doesn't matter if the prison bars are made of gold, nothing beats life in the outside world.

Talkinpeece You seem to have got so used to doing what you are told and having everything done for you that you are afraid of freedom. I want more for my children.