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Original poster

To ask whether you think Theresa May’s deal will make it through parliament?

146 replies

wondering1101 · 30/11/2018 22:02

In your opinion - will Theresa May’s deal be voted through parliament, and if not, what do you think will happen?

What would you like to happen?

(I know it’s been done to death, but I can’t believe what an important juncture we are at).

OP posts:
StealthPolarBear · 01/12/2018 07:41

Thanks Imissgmichael

Dongdingdong · 01/12/2018 08:28

I think it will get through by the skin of its teeth.

To the poster who said this about a potential general election:

“Tories will gain a large majority and not need the DUP.”

Really?! I can’t see the Tories winning a general election by a “large majority” if TM were to call one now.

IstanbulConstan · 01/12/2018 10:24

I can't see any party winning a majority in a GE either.

akerman · 01/12/2018 13:17

ragged - in 2016 nobody had run any impact studies of Brexit, because the Leavers never expected to win. There are now several impact studies, all of which indicate that we will be poorer under any Brexit scenario. You might call it predictions, but they are predictions with an awful lot of expertise and knowledge behind them. We have also seen the removal of business, banking etc that has already started to take place, and that's not prediction, that's reality. It's not the same as 2016 at all.

And people do tend to forget that one of Cameron's little foibles was to insist that in the event of a Leave vote, we'd go immediately. He should have known that we couldn't, and he had no business making that claim, but that' was the basis for the predictions of 'Project Fear'. It really wasn't that far off the mark, in terms of the 'no-deal' immediate exit that he was promising. And there was an immediate and severe financial hit' Crispin Odey got very rich on the night of the referendum as a result of it. And the Bank of England had to open a war chest of billions to prop up the pound, which still plummeted. And they've pumped billions into the economy ever since via quantitative easing.

ragged · 01/12/2018 13:44

BeLeavers don't care about impact studies. The forecasts in 2016 (whatever they were based on) from experts said pretty much the same as today's impact studies.

MPs who are supposed to believe in their civil servants' expertise might take note, but they might not. Brexit has never been a rational process.

I'm not arguing with Akerman's logic or quality of evidence. I'm arguing that evidence & logic aren't relevant to "The Will of the People".

Some say about 2016 "Nobody voted to be poorer". But actually, some loud BeLeavers say that they are willing to pay the price of being poorer, if it means they gain something nebulous called sovereignty.

Singletomingle · 01/12/2018 23:52

Every single study has been worst case scenario and not one has come close to happening. Yet as far as said impact studies go we are actually worse off in the EU than anyone predicted with growth 13% worse than expected. Obviously the 7% reduction in growth, worst case scenario, away from the EU is going to destroy us though.

akerman · 01/12/2018 23:59

No. They did a range of impact studies, including staying in the single market, staying in the customs union, May's deal and no deal. In all of them we are worse off than we would be in the EU. We are suffering now already because of the uncertainty to business, but that is not as a result of being in the EU.

The reason why the scenarios haven't happened is because we haven't yet left.

Nanalisa60 · 02/12/2018 00:05

I hope it does not go through!! I’m hoping that she gives in and let’s the people vote again!!

Singletomingle · 02/12/2018 00:08

There is a range of impact studies I agree yet all are worst case scenarios and the early ones which havent even come close to happening were immediate predictions. Obviously you only read the bits that confirm your opinions.

hadenough · 02/12/2018 00:34

I hope not.

My country (Scotland) voted against this, but yet again, our voice isn't being heard. Over and over again the Scottish government has asked to be consulted and heard, and time and time again we have been ignored.

This is no united union. Because if it was, you'd accept that this was unjust and all sides should be heard.

The referendum was a false choice. People were told leaving would be a simple objective, of course it isn't.

Apparently, England is the only country in the world that wants higher taxes, and lower public spending, all in the name of stopping the freedom of movement (because this is what UK Govt analysis shows Brexit will mean).

I don't understand it. Good luck in the future without EU contribution.

The only positive from Brexit could be Scottish Independence. I don't want to be associated with England - you're a complete embarrassment. I'm Scottish European, not British. Once I did believe in the UK, but this whole disaster has shown me I was wrong.

RamblinRosie · 02/12/2018 00:52

Hmmmm, Ireland anyone? A hard Brexit would require a border between North and South, not permissible because of the GFA, which is a legally binding agreement. Oh I love Ireland!

Genevieva · 02/12/2018 01:03

If Theresa May's deal is successfully voted through by Parliament the DUP will withdraw the confidence and supply arrangement. The fixed term parliament act will mean there is highly unlikely to be a General Election, but Theresa May will be unable to achieve anything as PM because she will have a minority government. This will frustrate Conservative MPs, so the number willing to sign a vote of no confidence in her will reach the required 48. We will then have to have some sort of interim leader until the Conservative Party votes for a new party leader. There is no depute PM at the moment, so it is not obvious who this would be. The new party leader will become PM without a general election, just like Gordon Brown and Theresa May did. While all this is going on we will be heading steadily toward Brexit day with no deal and without the necessary leadership to renegotiate or delay Brexit.

Ironically, if Theresa May's deal doesn't go through I think her chances of staying on as PM are slightly higher. She will have to decide whether she can struggle on and get it through parliament with some minor amendments or whether she can persuade her MPs that she is willing to try to renegotiate with the EU. In the meantime, she may be on the receiving end of a vote of no confidence and a leadership challenge (as above). There will be very little time for her to renegotiate her deal, get it signed off by the 27 members states and get it through parliament here.

In conclusion, I think there is a high chance that we will leave the EU with no deal and that Theresa May will lose her premiership over this. However, if she survives it, then she will want to stick around to fight the next general election in 2022.

EnthusiasmIsDisturbed · 02/12/2018 01:45

I am really not so sure I think many MP’s will back down

She has the EU behind her and I believe more of the public are getting behind her as they are so fed up and just want it down with

I think she would do better in an election than last time unless Labour completely change tactics which they won’t

GySgtHartman · 02/12/2018 03:49

No one's getting what they want and the EU are going to punish the UK in every way they can manage.

radishingravish · 02/12/2018 03:54

Yes it will. But it should not be.

Original poster
wondering1101 · 02/12/2018 05:55

I don't want to be associated with England - you're a complete embarrassment

Many of us voted remain. Not our fault the voting system is undemocratic and we are shackled with the Tories. Not that I want a Labour government currently either, with Corbyn having been such a weak opposer of Brexit, basically because he has no understanding of the EU, doesn’t like it, and is more focused on the cult of himself.

I would like a massive defection of both Conservative and Labour MPs to the centre, but time and again they have proven to have no courage.

OP posts:
Original poster
wondering1101 · 02/12/2018 06:42

I agree that the Tories have shown complete disregard for the other countries in the Union. That’s what they are though IMO, utterly selfish and power hungry above all else.

OP posts:
Random18 · 02/12/2018 10:20

There were people in all 4 countries that voted Leave.
I happen to know a couple of Scots who voted to Leave.
It’s not fair to blame the English solely.
Blame the Tories 100%. This is their mess and their mess only.
Oh and I am not English.........

EnthusiasmIsDisturbed · 02/12/2018 11:27

It’s consecutive governments that have lead to the divisions in society the growth of wealth in some areas and the lack of investment in others when the chance came for a real change many took it

I wouldn’t just blame the tories plenty of Labour voters voted leave and the majority of Labour MP’s supported having a referendum with minimal debate of discussion and all MP’s that supported to have a referendum are guilty of that

They should have been a cross party committee to deal with Brexit negotiations but May wasn’t going for that and Corbyn certainly wouldn’t have

smackbangwhollop · 02/12/2018 16:12

As no one knows what the deal actually is (all hush hush), who knows! It's impossible to answer this question when there's no transparency.

bellinisurge · 02/12/2018 16:16

I want to avoid No Deal. We are running out of ways to avoid it. I hope MPs will see that and accept the deal. I voted Remain but that isn't an option. In the absence of that option, I hope MPs see sense.

smackbangwhollop · 02/12/2018 16:17

Nanalisa60

I hope it does not go through!! I’m hoping that she gives in and let’s the people vote again!!
How many times should we be allowed to vote. Do you mean again and again or just again until the sensible outcome is reached?

Talkinpeece · 02/12/2018 16:27

We are in a plane.
We have decided to Jump out.
No Deal = No Parachute - landing will hurt A LOT
May's Deal = a reasonable parachute but landing will still hurt
Norway style deal = very well made parachute and softer landing
Remain = staying on the plane till it lands

ResponsibleMushroomForager · 02/12/2018 16:45

It looks like Parliament is finally starting to do its job. Hilary Benn is (I think - cos it's all bloody confusing) tabling a cross party amendment to make sure we can't crash out without a deal. The Labour Party are threatening Mrs May with contempt of parliament if she doesn't release all the Brexit legal advice (why didn't she?)

I reckon Mrs May is toast. God knows who will replace her but as a remainer, I'm feeling quite optimistic.

Flewog · 02/12/2018 17:24

Agree with @ragged , according to polls, a majority of Leave voters thought damaging the economy was a price worth paying (the selfish assholes).

I don't think the deal will go through. I don't want a new General Election though. About time the bulk of MPs acknowledged that Brexit is an absolute nonsense, called it off and got back to trying to actually improve the country.