can't afford to prep for brexit

[paintinmyhairAgain]

wrong board but the preppers will probably flame me, as you will might for mentioning it on here .
i was wondering if things goes toes up and there are food shortages, what happens with people who can't afford to -hoard- store up goods i.e the elderly and people on very tight budgets already living hand to mouth relying on food banks ?
any thoughts ?

Pledge?

allmycats
I am in my 50's and I only became a UK citizen recently.
Your memories of a halcyon age before the EU are sweet but out of date.

Before the UK joined the EU, China was not the world's biggest economy.
Before the UK joined the EU, there was no electronic trading.
Before the UK joined the EU, the range of food in the shops was SIGNIFICANTLY less than it is now (macaroni was in the 'foreign foods' aisle and olive oil came from the chemist.
Before the UK joined the EU it was known as the 'sick man of Europe' and had to beg repeatedly for DeGaulle to stop blocking entry so that we could boost trade.

I used to work in Customs Clearance - I can still remember how to fill out a T2 and a C16 / C88
THe damage to the UK economy of going back to that would be catastrophic.

Of all the Brexit arguments ‘we were fine before the EU’ has to be the most ridiculous. The world has changed. British farming and manufacturing has changed. Global supply networks have changed. And before we joined the EU we had trading agreements gradually established over many years. We’ll be leaving to none of that.

‘we were fine before the EU’

When I see people volunteering to give up all other stuff that has appeared, or changed hugely, since the late 1960s, then I'll take them seriously.

Internet? Mobile phones? Central heating? Indoor plumbing? Reliable cars? Flat-screen TV and the broadcast schedules? Easy and inexpensive travel?

I am also in my fifties. Frankly, unless you were of voting age for the earlier referendum, you are not really in a position to describe things before that referendum as being "fine".
I had a lovely and exciting childhood. I was aware of the moon landings, if the death of Franco and the end of the Vietnam war. Of power cuts and bread strikes and mass walk outs at British Leyland. But that wasn't my life. My parents let me watch the news and talked a lot of politics but I would certainly not have been able to make an adult assessment of the UK economy or global economy.
The 60s and early 70s of my memory were as wonderful as my parents could manage on a tight budget.
But I can only make an assessment of the economy then in hindsight.

It did not take 'days' or 'weeks' to get through border points

I'm just baffled anyone can write that. How life was before joining the EU has no bearing on how life will be if we crash out with no deal. Apples and oranges.

If allmycats is 60, then she was 17 at the time of the last Referendum and wouldn't have been able to vote

While she would be able to remember "life before the EEC" (having been c15 when we joined), it would have been through the filter of the life that her parents led.

She very definitely doesn't remember the War and the motivations of those that did vote to remain in the EEC (and yes, I know she hasn't explicitly said that).

My family left the UK in the mid 70s because of the oil crisis and the fact that UK was going through so many crises. (although we came back because NZ, at the time, was too much of a backwater and then, the straw that broke the camel's back for my parents, voted in a right wing government purely because it would send the All Blacks to SA, in the middle of the sports boycott, with its blessing )

I am only 3 years younger.

We can do maths too

It doesn't matter how rich we are, depending on the deal we get, there will be a delay in goods coming through customs that previously would have come straight in. CDS (the Customs Declaration System) was brought in to replace the old one this year. It was designed just before the referendum and was done so to cope with 150millon declarations - as per under the EU. This could nearly double after Brexit. The system simply isn't designed to cope with it. The upgrade on something so massive is not a simple job, very expensive and can't be implemented until the deal is known - meaning there will be a gap during which time there will be import delays. Contingencies are being put in place but they will be temporary and not as efficient as the system.
Anyone who has ever worked in a government department will understand how slowly the wheels of change move.

I haven't read the whole thread, shoot me now but...

I grew up in South Africa during the 70's and 80's when we had sanctions imposed on us by the EU. Best days of our lives and we pisswd the EU off by doing so much better than they assumed we would

Fuck a duck, you think SA in the 70s and 80s was a shining example of fabulousness? and presumably, still do?... the mind boggles.

THe RHA has calculated that an extra eight minutes per lorry will cause total gridlock in Kent within a day ....

Pre EU membership, UK had loads of other trade arrangements and agreements with European countries. That's why there wasn't Operation Stack in the 1960s.

So ... great! We'll just revert to those agreements. Except those agreements all expired and got superseded & simply don't exist. They all need to be renegotiated. There is no reversion back to what UK had 'before'.

Anybody who chose to live in SA in the 70s and 80s and thought it was the "best days of their lives" was a) white and therefore privileged and b) either actively or passively supported apartheid

We got out in the mid 60s. My dad already had a secret service file on him because he had been an anti-apartheid campaigner at Uni . My parents chose to leave when they did as otherwise their children (my brother and I) would have had to make a choice between supporting their parents, with their unpopular beliefs, or having no friends

This could nearly double after Brexit. The system simply isn't designed to cope with it.

Can you imagine the people who wil exploit this? I am aware that some ISIS fighters have been free to come home and have faced no consequences but there must be so many others would love to sneak in while there is chaos

Im not sure that we will be letting people "sneak in whilst there's chaos" .

Plus the customs infrastructure at Dover and Folkestone just doesn't exist any more - apart from in a very pared back form. The UK border is effectively in Calais. Nothing seems to be even thought of let alone planned for a No Deal scenario. There is no space for customs and immigration checks this end any more.

Folkestone never had the infrastructure

@prettybird. Snap. My parents also left SA in the 60s because of abhorrence of the political situation. My dad, who is absolutely a pilar of the establishment, was telling me how he saw himself as a communist (SA version) in his youth. He's in his 80s but still feels some guilt for not staying and helping with the struggle.

Neolara - My dad is 81 and doesn't feel any guilt . Mum and he did what they felt best for their young family.

He does now give more credit to his younger sister (still there) for staying and working within the system to change things - and for the work she did to improve early years education for poor black Africans.

First time he felt able to go back was in the late 80s. He was genuinely concerned that he might be arrested as a "communist" if he went back sooner.

Plus the customs infrastructure at Dover and Folkestone just doesn't exist any more
The terminal at Folkestone has only existed since 1994.

There were ferries for lorries and trains into Folkestone way back when, long before the Channel Tunnel. Also Ramsgate and Dover Western Docks, which is now solely a cruise terminal. The Tunnel has NEVER had infrastructure for immigration / customs clearance at the Folkestone end, but the competition has seen off many of the other ferry routes that used to operate. It's my whole point - what used to be no longer exists and cannot be put back. The current set up is totally different to what used to be in place at the SE Kent ports when I was a child in the 70s. And traffic has grown exponentially since then.

I hope things don’t come to the worse scenario because I don’t think people have a clue what is going on at the moment . As a small business we are having to stock up to keep our customers production going even though we can I’ll afford to do so , which could result in cash flow problems and even redundancies. No one knows if current driving licences or drivers insurance will be valid which again could stop international deliveries .manufacturing could be hit with extra costs to certify products , again costs they were not counting on , again could lead to redundancies . All of this is true but never mind we can send those that have lost their jobs out on the land to produce the food we normally import . I am only talking short term though so that’s a bonus . Long term , have not got a clue and so be honest if anyone knew that answer the country would not be so divided .

The one thing I don’t understand is why voters thought the savings would go to the nhs ? Genuine question . Who did you think was going to pay for the vastly increased border and visa control ? And everyone says that wages will increase because cheap labour will disappear ? If you ask most small business owners who are collectively the countries biggest employers , profit is hard , red tape appalling , incentives low , I think the utopia is imaginary . IMO. Of course

When I was in South Africa my ex MIL pointed out all the places they weren't allowed to go and the area they were mandated to live in. I know they didn't see it as the 'best times'.

Anyone who thinks we can leave with no deal, and lose all our trading relations with everybody, both EU and ROW, and everything just to carry on as if nothing has changed is deluding themselves. It might, and I hope it will be, better than we think. But with the shower we have in charge, many of whom also seem to be in denial, I doubt it.

Allmycats , unfortunately we have lost a lot of farming land and the population is very used to eating a much more varied and quantity of food . There is no way we would instantly be self sufficient on food if there was a no deal . It’s just not going to happen . Larger population etc . and don’t even get me started on pharmaceutical supplies . There is a real possibility of a nightmare , even if it is temporary.

I think the argument is that we will "suddenly" have to pay more for carers, and service staff and fruit pickers, but in reality, this means prices will rise and businesses will go bust as there is no opportunity for the market to adjust. These ARE things that can be managed over a period of time with a sustained policy of managing the economy well - balancing inflation, wages, house prices etc. But the suggested car crash scenario is never going to cut it, especially in these times of austerity when many are barely coping as it is.