AIBU to ask whether the people of the UK needs to take the threat of a no deal Brexit seriously?

[Talkstotrees]

This is just today’s Brexit related business news.

I fully expect this thread to be moved quick-smart over to the bowels of the Brexit board but a subject with implications so serious for the UK deserves a wider audience.

The Govt is making a massive hash of the negotiations and businesses operating in the UK - providing many 1000s of jobs - have no ability to plan in this climate.

Is this the Brexit you voted for?

If you voted to remain - there’s a people’s vote march this Saturday in London.

If you voted to leave but are unhappy with the PM’s proposals - there’s a people’s vote march this Saturday in London.

If you voted to leave and are happy with developments -

See you over on the Brexit board!

Still waiting for anyone to give me some positives or am I just going to have to I wait 50 years to see the benefits

You're going to have to wait I'm afraid. Numerous mnetters have repeatedly asked, nobody has ever provided any. We're just apparently supposed to practice the power of positivity and it will happen.

Well according the JRM, a very strong defender of a Real Brexit, aka No Deal Brexit, yes it will take that long....

That’s a long time to see the positives. I doubt I will be alive to see it. Possibly not even my own dcs....

Peregrina
High street banks in small towns and villages are closing because of on-line transactions;
www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/sep/17/why-bank-branches-closing

Thomas Cook branches closing - who walks into a travel agency these days? I've been booking holidays on-line for nearly 20 years. Thomas Cook are blaming this year's heat wave for a fall in profits;
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45624215

Dorothy Perkins - consumer spending patterns have changed - I used to buy Dorothy Perkins clothes in my teens - I didn't want a smartphone, designer trainers and Costa Coffee milkshakes.

Job losses - generally, employment rates and wages are up - we have the lowest unemployment rate for 40 years.

Shortage of nurses and midwives - complex, not just Brexit; historic lack of funding and training places, higher entry requirements, removal of training bursary, poor work-life balance, economic recovery in countries such as Spain and the introduction of the International English Language Testing System test (IELTS) in 2016;
rcni.com/nursing-standard/newsroom/news/exclusive-nearly-1400-overseas-nurses-fail-english-language-tests-94966

BMW:
As a responsible organisation, we have scheduled next year’s annual maintenance period at Mini Plant Oxford to start on 1 April, when the UK exits the EU, to minimise the risk of any possible short-term parts supply disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit We remain committed to our operations in Britain, which is the only country in the world where we manufacture for all three of our automotive brands

Unfortunately, Nissan has more than just Brexit to worry about - it is not surprising they want to delay pay negotiations:
^Nissan is set to cut hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland factory due to declining demand for diesel-engined cars, according to reports.
It is unclear exactly how many jobs will be lost due to the layoff, which was reported by the Financial Times^
The rapid decline in demand for diesel – in the UK, sales of diesel cars fell by 37% in March – is understood to be behind the move. Around a quarter of the cars produced at Sunderland are diesel-engine

Those who are leading us into the mire are happy to see others suffer for the next 50 years so them and their cronies can profit from this disaster. What’s driving all this is an elite network out to make £££ this has nothing to do with making life better for the ordinary people.

I am desperately praying for someone in government with a backbone to speak openly and honestly about what we are facing. No party politics, no sound bites just some honest facts please.

My DH works in the motor manufacturing sector and I'm extremely worried I just wish they'd get there arses in gear and sort this shitty mess out.

Nice try Clavinova, but not convincing. Yes shopping patterns have changed, which accounts for some gaps in the High Street. It by no means accounts for it all.

Shortage of midwives and nurses - complex. Yes and not helped by the Government's action in getting rid of burseries. But EU staff are leaving which compounds the government actions. Another thread had an instance of a Care Home having to close, because it couldn't get the staff. The residents had apparently happily voted Leave because of too many immigrants.

BMW you have hoist yourself with your own petard by that quote: "to minimise the risk of any possible short-term parts supply disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit". This isn't normal contingency planning that a well run business would make. If it was all so easy, and the German car manufacturers needed us more than we needed them, then it would have been sorted, and wouldn't be a risk. I suspect you don't know any one working at the car factory. People there are beginning to be anxious.

I agree with you OP. I think it will be disastrous too as every day there are more and more comments from business leaders. I thought that 2 years ago when I voted remain and yes I am angry with people who voted leave for no sensible reason, or none they can articulate, DC for giving the referendum in the first place to placate the Tory right, the Brexiteers in the government who should have stepped up to sort out the deal with the EU rather than TM who doesn't believe it is the right option.

However people's marches have no effect except to give the media something to focus on and they are just as at fault in not pointing out the good things about the EU over the years and I need every penny to buffer us against the economic uncertainty so I won't pay £200 plus to get from Cornwall to London on Saturday.

Only when we face rising prices, shortages of medicines and trained medical staff, job losses and high inflation will the Brexiteers sit up and take notice. I don't suppose they are vulnerable or short of money though or maybe they are? I cannot work out the demographic of those who voted to leave. I think it is short sightedness though and they are too stubborn to say they made a mistake. The rest of us who voted remain are worn out now and just waiting to see what happens. I feel sorry for those who depend on essential drugs or those who will lose their jobs.

When the Brexiters sit up and take notice it will all be the EU's fault for 'bullying us'. Not the EU's fault for enacting rules which the UK was very instrumental in creating, A50 being a case in point.

The wealthy ones like Johnson will be able to afford to skip the country. Like Nigel Lawson who lives in France. So far we have heard of him applying for his carte de sejour; we haven't heard that he's selling up to return to the UK to build the marvellous society that he wants for us. Why not, I wonder?

Clavinova, okay - you think it’s all made up (not sure for what reason they’d make it up though ). What benefits are you expecting to achieve through Brexiting?

Cornishclio, I’m not sure that the march will achieve anything either but I feel I have to do something. I regularly write to my MP about Brexit - probably equally pointless, but I can’t let them think we’re all happy with the way things are going. Theresa May has made several speeches is which she has stated that the UK is behind Brexit. Well I’m not! And I’m even less so 2+ years after the vote.

I was trying to think through the implications if BMW were to pull out. It would be unlikely to happen overnight, more like not retooling when the next model is due, and shifting production elsewhere. So it won't just be car workers who lost their jobs, it would be admin staff, canteen staff and cleaners.

On the other hand, assuming they don't pull out, I thought, that with increased customs paperwork they might need to beef up the Finance department to cope with the work, so require more staff. But this will bring extra costs, in the paperwork itself and in the extra staff costs - so this could bump up the price of a new car significantly, and make the factory unviable.

Either way, these are real issues, with thousands of peoples' jobs riding on them, and we want a bit more reassurance that 'Brexit means Brexit', and 'they' will sort something out. 'They' so far haven't been able to sort anything out.

why do people think a 'no deal' will mean we can't import drugs and food?

Britain is going to be made an example of, by the EU. Britain is fucked.
*
We, in NI are double fucked.*

^^ This with Bells on.

YANBU

What I don't get though is how the English people are allowing the DUP to manipulate the situation for their own needs.

The tail is wagging the dog and nobody seems to give a damn.

Peregrina
BMW you have hoist yourself with your own petard by that quote: "to minimise the risk of any possible short-term parts supply disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit". This isn't normal contingency planning that a well run business would make

We are not in normal times - although BMW go on to say;
While we believe this worst-case scenario is an unlikely outcome, we have to plan for it

We voted - and we're dealing with it.

Britain is going to be f*cked by its own incompetence, and by EU rules we helped to write. This is an inconvenient fact for Brexiters, who like to think we have been rule takers for 40 years.

Why won't we be able to import drugs and food? Because we are part of the Single Market and we wont be, and we won't have time to write the rules enabling us to import 'frictionlessly'. Trade deals typically take 5-10 years.

Because our road haulage companies will need licencing as part of a third country and not members.

Because the rules currently governing our aviation are by virtue of the EU. Once we are no longer in the EU the rules don't apply. We could re-negotiate, but this takes time.

Remainers and people like the Road Haulage industry have been pointing this out for the last two years.

We voted - and we're dealing with it

Really?
3 sets of some fairly horrendous no-deal notices (with few solutions) does not strike me as "dealing with it"

Quite the opposite, you ve not got a clue what you are doing.

Regardless 17m out of 46m voters is not a "we voted for it" for such an important irreversible decision.

Clavinova - so you voted for abnormal times?

Some people dislike change, I am not one, it can be beneficial. But unplanned change? Voting for a pig in a poke? Count me out.

'We' is a German car firm dealing with things. They could still pull out, they will wait and see. There are no guarantees.

Talkstotrees - I agree with you. Marching shows that the UK is not all behind Brexit. When the Gdansk shipyards went on strike; when East Germans started marching in protest, the West welcomed their actions. We in the UK though are told by some to accept a flawed, advisory vote, which so far is being dealt with by plans which are more reminiscent of war time planning than the period of prosperity that we were told was on offer.

why do people think a 'no deal' will mean we can't import drugs and food?

Have you not read anything at all on the immediate consequences of no deal?

For instance: the Government’s own advice for importing medicines with a short shelf life:

Where such products are at present imported to the UK from the EU/EEA via road haulage and roll-on, roll-off sea, road and rail routes, the Department is asking suppliers to ensure they have plans in place to air freight those products to avoid any border delays that may arise at the end of March next year in the event of a no deal exit from the EU.

Which of course assumes that some agreement is made on flights as well.

Democracy really upsets some people. I want a third or fourth vote lol

why do people think a 'no deal' will mean we can't import drugs and food?

We will no longer be part of the EU. No deal means we haven't been able to agree a trade agreement with them.

That means we don't have a contract with them ie. We can't sell or buy from them until a trade agreement is reached.

Other countries are covered by World Trade Organisation rules and any that we already have an agreement with will expire when we stop being EU members and will need renegotiated.

We are seriously faffing about when we actually need to be getting on with things!!

Trade agreements take years to negotiate and all the paperwork, customs etc etc take years to get in place.

Don't underestimate how dire the situation is!

Hilarious! The trolls are calling me a troll

(If you’re not trolls, try educating yourselves)

We are the 5 the largest economy and do you think any other country outside the EU thinks it can't survive ?

And dumping our largest single trading partner.

Clearly an EU troll upset that democracy still exists.

Democracy didn’t end on 23rd June 2016.

Stop crying and trying to infiltrate websites with your propaganda.

And we’re back to “you lost, get over it”.