To think we might not be going on holiday next April after all?

[Hoardernomore]

We stupidly booked a holiday to France for about a fortnight after Brexit. I didn’t even consider brexit at the time, I just considered ds’s Easter holidays. It’s to Disneyland Paris and we’ve been waiting to take the children for ages. We’ve only paid the deposit on the hotel (stopping in Disneyland hotel so expensive if we end up not being able to go) but have paid for the flights.

We are idiots.

Would we be best to cut our losses and not pay the balance on the hotel and book for another time?

{Unless Trump says "bend over" and Liam Fox - on behalf of the UK - says "yes, please"}
Makes it all worthwhile!

hateisnotgood

The CAA’s guide to a no deal Brexit is useful:

publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP1714BrexitAviationSafety.pdf

In the no deal scenario, we would recognise EASA certificates, approvals and licences for use in the UK aviation system and on UK-registered aircraft at least for a period of two years following Brexit. It would, in the UK’s view, be in the EU’s interests to recognise UK certificates, approvals and licences in the same way. To date, the EU has publicly stated it would not do so.

I know the EU has already proposed a “bare bones” aviation agreement in the event of No Deal (which Grayling has already admitted to relying upon) but that CAA information is concerning.

I blame the press/journalists for this thread - everything to do with Brexit means everything will stop or not work anymore - the actual earth will stop spinning (or cease to exist for those who still think earth is flat).

Apparently before we joined the EU we just ran around in loin cloths and lived in caves.

Many of us have known about the potential effects of a no deal Brexit on the aviation industry for much longer than a week - it’s been discussed on the Westminstenders threads in the Brexit section for well over a year now. As has the industry itself understood - though presumably they didn’t realise that our so called negotiators didn’t have a clue and would make such a pig’s ear of the negotiations that a No Deal would be likely.
It was stated firmly from the start that the terms of leaving would have to be agreed before anything else could be discussed. It’s not something the EU Commission has suddenly sprung on us. I’ve understood this from the start, why has it been beyond our government?

Clicky link: publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP1714BrexitAviationSafety.pdf

Oh no we have to holiday in the uk for one year. I so need a eye roll emote. Seriously everyone knew about brexit if you booked an aboard holiday for within the first few months after you where an idiot. I don’t know any sensible person who has. I’m sure we will all miss Spain so much for a few months.

Every part of industry wants their particular bit negotiated immediately.
Until we know what sort of deal, or even if there is to be a deal, it makes sense to postpone talks on flights:

We would be negotiating totally different things if there is no deal, to what we would do if there is a Canada type deal, or Customs Union, or Norway +, or ....

If there is no deal, the EU would just unilaterally allow in the people / services / goods from the UK they actually need,
as would the UK
That is not resumption of normal service; it is the bare essentials

I live in Germany and all the business associations here, for car manufacturers, chemical industry etc have repeatedly stated that the top priority is protecting the integrity of the Single Market, on which their prosperity depends
and that this is far more important than preserving trade with the UK

The Government Departments that are expected to have 'things in place' at the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations are already creating the operational changes that would be necessary to click in when the decision/agreement is made. It will be Option 'A' or Option 'B'.

Please give the British establishment some credit for their foresight.
These people are extremely clever planners - fail here and they fail their Government - they will be voted out!

For Leavers who don't trust Remain sources,

read the daily blog of Dr Richard North who has campaigned for Brexit for about the last 30 years.

He has been screaming warnings about the horrendous consequences of no deal, or indeed any deal that menas leaving the Single Market.
(However, he still wants to Leave, even if the economy crashes totally)

He makes it clear that the consequences of leaving the SM are automatic, under WTO /WCO rules,
NOT the EU taking any "punishment" action - if they give us cherries, they destroy the SM on which their prosperity depends.

This is a recent one about farming / agricultural exports:
<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87006" target="_blank">http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87006

or this, outlining again the consequences of no deal: logjammed ports and delayed food supplies:
<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86951" target="_blank">http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86951

"it will be a disaster"

"a "no deal" applying from the 29 March next year will result in every shipment moving by road vehicle between the UK and the EU requiring customs clearance.
Millions of lorries, with hundreds of millions of shipments move this way every year.

Each shipment will require both an export clearance for departure and an import clearance for arrival regardless of the direction of travel.
...
no ferry port (or the tunnel) has facilities to accommodate this extra customs work – in the UK or the EU.
There is no processing point that can handle the volume of business.
There are not enough customs agents to handle the business, nor enough customs officers.

With the lack of knowledge and skills massive numbers of processing mistakes will be made in respect of duties and VAT – therefore current processing times will not be achievable."

He refers to latest press statement by the Road Haulage Association:
<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.rha.uk.net/getmedia/c98d0219-fcf7-434e-b9cd-51f2ff0c316c/180730-Brexit-pull-your-finger-out-final.pdf.aspx" target="_blank">https://www.rha.uk.net/getmedia/c98d0219-fcf7-434e-b9cd-51f2ff0c316c/180730-Brexit-pull-your-finger-out-final.pdf.aspx

I blame the press/journalists for this thread

The information has been available on the EU website since April. Potential impacts of Brexit have been reported in the industry press for much longer.

ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-aviation-safety.pdf

Perhaps all those clever people preparing for Plan A or Plan B have been drafted in from the sector that usually oversees the disposal of clinical waste, which would explain why the country is currently littered with containers of frozen body parts, discarded dressings and other medical unpleasantness.

We’re going to Italy on 6 April I’m not worried - Brexit doesn’t mean you’re not allowed to leave the UK. I’m expecting some upheaval but nothing that means we can’t go on our holiday! (We’re not flying with Ryanair I’d be more worried if we were!)

Hollipopsmum.
If there is no deal, there will be no flights no ferries and no trains. Do I take it you have your own boat or are very good swimmers?

Bottom line is that Article 50 was triggered far too soon IMO.

"These people are extremely clever planners" 😂😂

Look at every big govt project over the last 40 years and see how many have come in on time, working properly and within budget
e.g. NHS IT, HMRC IT, Trident, any other large military kit ....

Their "plans" are fluff & nonsense, e.g. those UK businesses trading with the RoI should "ask Dublin" 🤦🏻‍♀️
UK businesses have been begging the givt for guidance;
some have just made their own contingency plans to wind down in the UK, should no deal happen.

In contrast, the websites from the EU and from governments of the most affected countries - e.g. RoI, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden - that give detailled and very specific advice to each sector of business

Our ruling class are very clever at making sure they won't be poorer or inconvenienced:

Look at Redwood, JRM all moving investments abroad.
Look at the big Tory Leave donors hedging against Sterling and British business - i.e. betting it goes down the toilet
Look at all those like Lawson, with boltholes in the EU, safe from whatever happens after Brexit

Then look at what happens to ordinary people
e.g. how well Universal Credit started, how people with cancer are found fit to work ....

Chillpizza, how is it idiotic to book a holiday after Brexit? We have a government of elected officials who supposedly have the ability to resolve these complex EU issues in the timeline which they themselves set out. Why should people have to put their lives on hold just because the government are (potentially because it hasn’t happened yet) not fit for the task.

I’m sure we will all miss Spain so much for a few months.
Maybe people are visiting family in EU countries. Maybe people are travelling for business. This about the U.K. infrastructure, economy and travel, not having a jolly in Benidorm.

We want to book a holiday to Cyprus next June. We went there before Cyprus joined the EU, so it is hard to see it will much different to then, except for not using EHIC to access healthcare.

The largest group of tourists in Cyprus are still from the UK at present, I just cannot see the country wanting to decimate their tourist revenue.

It is not scaremongering.I live in France and we have lots of info coming through from here.At the end of the day noone knows anything.Trying to live here without fear of being set back isnt fun

You could say that for every single eu citizens living in the uk too.
The difference though is that Brits in the EU seems to stay there despite the uncertainty.
EU citizens are leaving.
I’m wondering why.....

Yes, banamara Before invoking A50, the "party of business" should have treated Brexit like a business project

So, something like this:

Scope the possible alternatives
Investigate each to obtain impact assessments, costs , timings etc
Get agreement for the cabinet on the chosen Brexit aim and strategy to achieve it
Plan in detail, with costings & timings
Have fallback plans
Plan any necessary infrastructure, extra staff etc, provide resources and start building all this, to be ready in time
Decide negotiating strategy, choose an expert time and give them the bounds of their remit

Only then, when everything is in place, invoke A50

Cameron didn't plan anything; Neither did May, until far too late
she put party before country and concentrated on party unity
That's why Brexit "planning" is such a mess and why the UK govt is a laughing stock, not just inside the EU

Please give the British establishment some credit for their foresight.

Are they the same people who are supposed to have a system place for customs for after the 29th march?
The system that has already been described as Not fit for purpose (and won’t be by the end of March 19 either).

"Of course you will be able to travel. There is no way travel will be stopped, the economy would go into free fall!"

This is literally what sensible people are worried about. Literally. Jesus.

frankiestein40
Thanks for your explanation. Obviously our Company was buying into expert companies such as SAPS that were involved with all of our systems, including order processing and accounting. We were probably more protected than other companies. I appreciate that now. However, we were all on alert and had to report any malfunctions or any unusual activity in any area of our daily activities. We were so used to our regular programmes that we did scrutinise every process as we completed it.
YK2 did no damage - nor did it create any out of the ordinary situations whatsoever.
It isn't comparable to leaving the European Union, however we are still making the most of our lives - just returned from Venice - and will continue to travel in Europe and we don't feel any out of the ordinary problems attached to booking European Holidays. I will fill out with more detail later.

However, good news:
strong hints came today from both the EU and the UK that they are very close to a deal.

This would of course give a transition period until 31 Dec 2020, in which things stay much the same as now, at least between the UK and the EU
(the EU can't force 3rd countries, e.g. the US, Japan,China ..., to treat the UK after Brexit as if it were still inside the EU)

In that case, EU holidays would continue just like now
imo, even more reason not to cancel a booking if you've already paid part of it, but definitely don't book anything new yet.

Just keep fingers crossed the deal happens and it's not yet another false hope

It's a Democracy, you were outvoted

The majority wanted to leave the EU - and if this transition period is going to be inconvenient, then that's just the way the extraction from the EU Process is going to go.

Ah, democracy. I love democracy.
The one that says you are allowed to change your mind and that’s why we have regular elections. Because it’s not because the conservatives were it into power once that they will again (clearly TM needed a reminder if that fact).
So yes, the vote said that Leave won by a SMALL majority.
I gather that if the vote was happening now, Remain wouod be winning this time round.
Can we still be a democracy and listen to the NEW Will of the People please?
Moaning not allowed

@BigChocFrenzy

Agree, A 50 trigger was a knee jerk reaction by May to show her party how committed she was to Brexit. Look how that panned out!

But we are where we are now, and if a deal is struck it is definitely better than No Deal. At least there will be a transition period.

I am concerned about the NI situation though, but hopefully it will work out too.

Still wondering what the benefits of Brexit are, since no one has told me yet!