AIBU to wonder why Corbyn hasn't got the boot yet?

[marsbarsandtwix]

After all this recent stuff. Please could we have someone else and make labour electable again. Why is he still there and do we think he still will be for the forseeable?

I left the UK nearly two decades ago when Labour were in power. From the outside looking in, they are in precisely the same position as the Conservatives were then.

Jeremy Corbyn is no more a winner than William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith or Michael Howard. He is not going to win Labour a general election. Ever. This is for the following reasons.

First, from where I sit in the southern hemisphere, it appears that the Labour Party are going through the same entirely unnecessary ritual bloodletting that the Tories put themselves through, in the name of political purity. I say it's unnecessary, because the nonsense they seem to come out with doesn't appear to have any connection with centrist voters, who Labour have to win over. The Tories went hard right after the 1997 election and remained in the wilderness until David Cameron taked towards the centre with his Red Tory idea of the big society. Labour have gone hard left, and will remain in the wilderness - just as they did in the 80s - until they come to their senses. I suppose this is all fine if one's vision of the Labour Party is like the Israelites in the wilderness following a pillar of smoke by day and a pillar of fire by night. If, by contrast, one's vision is to form the next government, it's just crazy.

Second, they don't seem to fathom just how much support the Tories have picked up. In 2005, the Conservatives polled 8.7 million votes. In 2017 they polled 13.6 million. That's a 56% increase. Labour has completely failed to take advantage of the Lib Dem meltdown, which ought to have delivered them plenty of votes. Any benefit they got from this was lost because they haemorrhaged swing voters to to the Tories in 2015 and didn't win them back.

I keep hearing from Labour supporters about what a great success Corbyn has been because he has increased the Labour vote. I just don't get this at all, because Labour still lost the election. I'm going to say it again because it seems like such a hard point to grasp:

• Labour lost the election.
• Labour lost the election.
• Labour lost the election.

Because of the same fallacy, his supporters - even in the Guardian say he "won" the campaign in 2017 because he increased the Labour vote. Well, once again, I refer such people to the same point above, which, in case you missed it, is that Labour lost the election.

Third, if Brexit turns out not to cause an economic shitstorm, the Tories will be in power for a generation. If it is a shitstorm, why does it follow that Corbyn's Labour Party will be considered a better alternative? A more likely scenario is that Mrs May gets knifed in the back and replaced with another Tory.

Third, despite tacking leftward, Labour hasn't recovered anything like its old position in Scotland. This is about winning elections, isn't it? Well, winning elections is a numbers game. The collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland has lost them 50 guaranteed parliamentary seats. They now have fewer Scottish seats than the Tories. Scotland is notionally more left-wing than the rest of the UK. Well, it seems that the Scots prefer to vote for the Tories, or the SNP who resemble nothing so much as nationalist, centrist, image-conscious Blairites.

From my vantage point the UK government is in disarray. They cannot agree on how to take on the EU. If my memory of the UK public is correct, this will be resolved by backing a leader they perceive as strong and patriotic. Mrs May was, it seems to me, perceived as a combination of Mrs Thatcher and Elizabeth I.

I simply don't know what Mr Corbyn has to offer in that respect.

I see it is going well in Venezuela then, Corbyns socialist paradise that he so admired.

He's an idiot.

Looks like its not working Vicky, maybe come up with photographic evidence that Corbyn started WW2 or tried to assassinate Churchill lol!

BMG for the Independent have topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%
NumberCruncherPolitics have topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%
YouGov have them both on 38%

Ok, let's try Corbyns support for the IRA then.
I wander if they are giving him any support now, what was that saying, you can judge what a person is like by the company they keep.

Blackforest anyone at all, who doesn’t think women have penises will do.

To think that this massive women’s rights issue is going under the radar. (As it’s being hidden from them.)

Considering this-its unbelievable - but they don’t want you to know if you don’t already.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3340870-To-think-that-this-massive-women-s-rights-issue-is-going-under-the-radar-As-it-s-being-hidden-from-them

Anybody looked at the polls recently? Not bad at all.

It’s the summer holidays not much does happen

certain areas of the press will not let this go and his response to the issues of anti semitism within the party he was just too slow to respond becuase he wasn’t bothered by it

Momentum have go to find a new leader after their messiah McDonnell, Rayner 😁😁😁

Sadly Labour are not a winning party and probably won’t be for some time but for many that’s ok they have returned to their roots yep that’s really helpful

Labour should be absolutely trashing The Conservatives in the poles after the last six months but heyho this is something to rejoice for his followers a few points ahead in these circumstances with fours years to go until the next general election wow Jermey you go

I am spoiling my vote until ANY party comes out with a pro-woman platform.

#stickerwoman

As EnthusiasmDisturbed says spot on.

Prowoman?

You mean anti-self ID?

I think the self ID thing does have issues however, it's no reason to continue to allow the decimation of public services with all the hideous consequences.

You know, like shit schools, shit health, rising mortality rates.... all of which pales into insignificance compared to the possibility of a willy in the next toilet cubicle or JC laying a wreath...

Truly got the government we deserve- at the moment.

There's actually an interesting (and encouraging to me at least) article on the wreath story at the museum moment. Basically, most people don't give a shit either way:

ukpollingreport.co.uk

thereareflowersinmygarden
People would give a shit if they knew what was actually going on. Women are being silenced if they ask any question about self id. We are supposed to shut up and put up. Infact that’s exactly what they say. Suck it up buttercup. That’s a reference to not being remotely interested if you as a woman are uncomfortable with standing next to a man with a penis in your changing room at the gym. Oh also if your uncomfortable with the fact that these men want to be considered actual biological women. In law. So what does that make you? How are you going to access women’s health services if the term “woman” now includes women with...you guessed it penises. Sorry but to say that this is a small issue that nobody cares about is frighteneibg, and this is born out by the conversations many of us have had with other women. We can’t talk online much because we get silenced and threatened or called ( my handle was;) a disgusting transphobic bigot. I had dared mention online to my local Lib Dem’s on Facebook page that I could see why some women may not be comfortable. Don’t ignore this issue it’s massive and it eclipses all other political issues for women who know about it.
Follow the link if you think people don’t give a shit.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3340870-To-think-that-this-massive-women-s-rights-issue-is-going-under-the-radar-As-it-s-being-hidden-from-them?noti=1#80412112

Oh and flowers that was the Lib Dem’s who called me that not some crazy weird troll. That’s what you get from local politics if you ask questions about self I.D wake up.

flowers

It bothers many women actually and it’s lost labour and the Lib Dem’s my vote and all the females in my family and friend circle.

You won’t shut us up you know.

If things continue, there will not be any healthcare to access- for women or anybody else.

The NHS is going to go bust. I'm not exaggerating there.

It will exist in name only- but the waiting lists will be so long and the list of stuff available so small, that it'll be practically useless.

I'm trying to shut you up - this a forum for debate. The freedom
of speech you're exercising here does not include the right not to be challenged.

My challenge is, there are more important issues that those of a political bent should be focused on.

*i'm not

Deficit has come down from the highs after the GFC but the amount the country owes (debt) has gone up massively, whats your point?

The point is that people do know what a deficit is, you know. While it is being addressed debt must continue to rise lots because that is literally what a deficit does.

It's a knowingly BAD faith argument an insult to the intelligence to say "oh look debt is higher" while the deficit is still being tackled.

I shouldn't be surprised though, every momentum post we see on these forums seems to assume that stupid mum's won't get it and won't check - vote for who you're told to here's a half-baked lie for an argument. The latent misogyny really does shine through.

As with the "what about the nhs" thing, really. The NHS is vital but Corbyn cannot always be defended by deflecting onto the NHS, let alond promises to borrow more money for the NHS that our kids will have to pay back with ever higher taxes, no pensions, no NHS treatment themselves etc.

So it's ok for the Tories to borrow but not Labour. Ok.

The funniest thing about recent polls is the suggestion that LimpDems might ever get 8 - 10% of the vote

No doubt they're bouncing around like toddlers who think they might get to play in the sandbox at last, but I'd say the chances of that happening at an actual GE are less than nil

Puzzledandpissedoff I dunno you know- I’d say there could be a chunk of disillusioned labour voters go to the because they can’t bear the thought of the conservatives. i Know a fair few who have switched allegiances.