Thread from Nate Silver:
twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1019935521961922561
@ NateSilver538
Retweeted Axios
I don't like the trend of treating Trump's approval among GOP voters as the headline and his overall approval number as the subheadline.
Both are important, but the overall number is more important.
His approval among independents is also important, and rarely gets mentioned.
Nate Silver added,
Axios
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@ axios
NEW POLL: Republicans overwhelmingly back Trump's handling of press conference with Putin — 85% see election interference as a distraction.
www.axios.com/republicans-say-trump-did-fine-in-helsinki-5776322f-a483-4e21-b50c-028799b08367.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic
@ NateSilver538
Jul 19
For instance, if Trump has 40% approval, it could be because:
—He's lost some support among R's and is merely treading water among independents
—He polls great among R's, but really bad with indies, and maybe some anti-Trump conservatives no longer call themselves Republicans
@ NateSilver538
Jul 19
Are either of these cases obviously better or worse for Trump? ¯\(ツ)/¯ As far as forecasting general elections go, they're probably about the same. They're different from one another, so it's worth discussing. But the overall number should still be the headline.