Alexandra Erin
***@alexandraerin*
There are a pair of recent moves, from the State Department and the Treasury Department, which suggest that in year two of Trump's reign, the regime is being a lot less circumspect about being in Putin's pocket, with less ego-clashing feud and less smoke-and-mirrors resistance.
Now, you might recall that back in 2017, Congress passed laws calling for tough new sanctions to punish Russia for its election interference. There was a lot of speculation about whether Trump would sign this act, but he finally did, grudgingly and complaining the whole time.
In the United States system of government, the theory is that Congress passes the law, and the executive branch executes them, hence the term. Trump as chief executive is the chief one responsible for carrying out laws passed by Congress.
So guess where this is going.
Monday, January 29th, was the deadline for the executive branch to impose the sanctions, as prescribed in the bill that Donald Trump personally signed into canon as the law of the land.
It came and it went.
The law called for the Treasury Department to help guide the sanctions by producing an investigative report of oligarchs and businesses linked to Putin.
Serious, lifetime-career experts at the Treasury Department prepared that report, which was then thrown out and replaced with a copy of the Russian Forbes 100 list plus a few public Putin associates and a disclaimer that it's not a list of people who should face sanctions.
And Rex Tillerson, secretary of state and obvious Yosemite Sam pseudonym, told Congress that they haven't imposed actual sanctions because the threat of sanctions is proving an effective deterrent. Slap on the wrist, everybody learned a valuable lesson. No actual penalty.
The actual implementation strategy here is to let everyone else know that doing "significant transactions" with certain Russia-linked entities may result in penalties for the other party. But it's entirely discretionary. No actual rules per se.
Team America: World Secret Police.
This gives the Trump regime a valuable tool for looking tough (Trump's favorite way to look), a free hand for Putin, and a way to arbitrarily impose sanctions on countries or other entities that Trump or Putin want to weaken.
With nothing actually in writing about what transactions get penalized, we could easily see a situation where a group that does significant business with the Ukraine and also had an incidental transaction in Russia gets hit with sanctions for violating the unwritten rules.
Or anybody backing dissidents and opposition politicians in Russia. The sub-basement floor is the limit with these guys.
I don't think we are quite at "Treasury and State Department overtly help Putin crush his enemies" territory yet. Nope. But one year and change in to Trump's rule, and we are at "Treasury and State Department overtly shield Putin and his cronies from consequences" territory.
And while it's not a surprising shift, it is a marked shift from where they were last year, and the main thing that has changed is what year it is. Time makes Trump normal. The passage of the year changed his dislike of the sanctions from an outrage to the way things are.
And with Trump's feet-dragging opposition to the sanctions accepted as the new normal, his executive branch failing to execute them becomes a natural progression of time rather than a startling departure from all norms of governance and the rule of law.
So you've really got to ask yourself, what would the start of a year 3 of Trump look like? How far would he be able to go after his next calendar reset? How far can he push things between now and then?
Cathy R 🇨🇦
@CathyMaiRu
Replying to @alexandraerin
So now what? No further actions!? What can be done?
Alexandra Erin
***@alexandraerin*
Talk about it. Spread awareness of it. Make sure everybody you know knows that it's happening. Post it on your Facebook. Put it in an email forward to your uncle. The right does these things, and it shapes the way people think about politics, and vote.
Talk is not the only action required, but talk is an action that is required. There is a national discourse. We have to be shaping it.
Believe it or not, talking about the regime's corruption is doing something. Talking about the resurgence of overt Nazism and white nationalism is doing something. Being willing to talk about these things, to label them as they are rather than accepting them as normal, helps.
We could be calling Congress to light a fire under them to demand the executive branch actually execute these things, to write newer, more specific, and tougher sanction laws, but to be honest: the public engagement and awareness aren't there yet to get the critical mass needed.
So step one is: talk about it. Talk to people about it. Get people talking about it. The executive branch is flouting the rule of law, Trump is ignoring a law he himself signed into existence.
The right has a hundred talking points about why Russian interference doesn't exist or doesn't matter or helped Clinton or whatever. But none of that addresses the fact that Trump signed this law. He made it the law of the land. And he's ignoring it.
Now, here's a very simple thing you can do. Does your local paper print letters to the editor? Write one, expressing your opinion that Trump is undermining Congress and the rule of law by ignoring the Russian sanction deadlines. Reference a recent article they published.
Chances are the demographic who reads letters to the editor may be a different demographic than you normally talk to or interact with.
If you are vulnerable and/or have a distinctive name, be cautious, as newspapers usually publish the real names and possibly home towns of the people whose letters they print.
Although they don't necessarily have rigorous ID checking if you use a pseudonym.
Just, you know, make it a name and not glamthrower69420.
Anyway, that's my morning analysis. Off to read the State of the Union. If you get anything from my work on here, feel free to tip in to keep it going.
www.paypal.me/alexandraerin