Renato MariottiVerified account @renato_mariotti 1
THREAD: What does news that George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI mean? (Hint: He's flipping.)
1/ Today Trump Advisor George Padadopoulos pleaded guilty to one count of lying to the FBI. The charge is here: assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4163402/Papadopoulos-Statement-Offense.pdf
2/ Unlike the charges against Manafort and Gates, Padadopoulos is not charged via indictment. He has agreed to waive that right.
3/ That is something that defendants do when they are trying to be cooperative with the prosecutor. It saves the grand jury's time.
4/ Also it gives the defense some input into what is in the charging document (called an "information") because they are agreeing to it.
5/ In and of itself, the fact that he agreed to an information doesn't necessarily mean that he has "flipped."
6/ "Flipping" means that someone has agreed to completely and truthfully cooperate with the government, including testify against others.
7/ In addition to agreeing to an information, there are two other signs that strongly suggest to me that Padadopoulos has "flipped."
8/ First, he is pleading guilty. If Papadopoulos is not receiving any benefit from Mueller, there is little to be gained from doing that.
9/ He could wait to receive the evidence that Mueller plans to use (something called "discovery") and see what Mueller has on him.
10/ In addition, Papadopoulos is charged with only a single, narrow crime. That is also strongly suggestive of cooperation.
11/ Attorneys representing cooperators typically try to bargain with prosecutors over what crime they are charged with.
12/ Typically federal prosecutors require that defendants plead to a single felony crime that has a sufficient maximum criminal penalty
13/ to cover all of the criminal conduct they committed, because judges consider all of a defendant's activity when determining a sentence.
14/ Lying to the FBI is a fairly narrow crime, but it carries a five-year maximum sentence, which is sufficient to cover his liability.
15/ The fact that this charge was released now, along with Manafort and Gates, suggests to me that he will cooperate against one of them.
16/ Otherwise, Mueller could have waited to charge Padadopoulos. Obviously, the fact that he is admitting that he lied to the FBI will be
17/ by the defense to suggest that he is lying when he testifies against Manafort and/or Gates.
18/ That's very typical for cooperators. Usually cooperators are criminals themselves, and carry with them some amount of baggage.
19/ That's why, as I've said before, a witness like Comey is so much better. Unlike a cooperator, he's a career law enforcement officer.
20/ Nonetheless, Papadopoulos will be very important to Mueller because he can provide an inside look at the Trump campaign.
21/ Having an insider explain to the jury what happened is really important because it tells a story in a way documents don't tell alone.
22/ There is a lot more here to digest and discuss, including the detailed allegations. I'll post more threads (and discuss more on TV).
23/ I'll do my best to read your questions in this thread in between. /end