This echos my thoughts, and I do not anticipate any coming together, sadly. Yes, it will be imperative to know what happened but will we be able to all know it together or will this just deepen the rifts of the two realities?
David Roberts
@drvox
- Here's a morbid train of thought. I feel quite confident I'm not the only one thinking it. But let's get it down for the record.
- Tomorrow is going to be something close to a clean test - the kind of perfectly constructed experiment sociologists & polisci folks love.
- It is a test of whether right-wing media can distort reality sufficiently to prevent any kind of transpartisan consensus from forming.
- On one side you have a richly detailed history of shady behavior from Trump, an impeccably credentialed investigator, & indictments.
- It is a paradigmatic example of the kind of thing that might once have been able to unite Americans as Americans, party aside.
- It's the kind of thing that eventually did unite Americans re: Watergate (though it was slower to do so than the romanticized history).
- With Watergate it took an escalating series of revelations & defensive flails to eventually tip the scales, but the point is ...
- ... at that time, the scales were still capable of tipping. There was a limit to conservatives' ability to distort the facts and ...
- ... and, when the facts became widely known, a limit to partisanship. There was such a thing as party leader going "too far."
10. Does either limit still exist? Tomorrow will kick off our latest experiment. Because now, on the other side, you have ...
11. ... a vast edifice of media outlets, think tanks, advocacy groups, & hyper-ideological pols that
dwarfs what cons had in the '70s.
12. And the entire machine has sprung to life, throwing chaff about the dossier & Mueller & Comey & uranium & Hillary & whatever the F.
13. It is as frantic & deafening & coordinated an effort as I've ever seen, now enthusiastically being led by the president himself.
14. (The experiment depends on Mueller actually uncovering serious wrongdoing connected to Trump, of course, but it's looking pretty bad.)
15. If there is serious wrongdoing, then, we will find out: are we still capable of learning a set of facts
as a nation? Together?
16. Are we still living in the same world, at all? Do we share
any common set of facts? Or is it the case that literally anything ...
17. ...
even collusion with a foreign power to subvert democracy, can simply be fed into the partisan-bullshit machine & processed.
17 1/2. [I hope everyone's watching this insane f'ing world series while they are reading this.]
18. The difference b/t the Rs of the 70s & now is that R electeds & the party itself had some power back then to shape opinion.
19. Now R electeds cringe at the feet of the baying, insatiable base, which is never not outraged & exercised by RW media.
20. RW media pulls the strings, controls the very reality the base lives in, and it has
no incentive to moderate or tell the truth.
21. So even if some GOP officeholders see what's happening & feel some pangs of responsibility toward national integrity & dignity ...
22. ... they cross the base at their peril. Corker & Flake are leaving b/c they no longer have any control over what their constituents ...
23. ... believe or want. And constituents believe & want increasingly ugly things. The grievance machine has colonized the GOP, entirely.
24. So is there anything, at all, that Mueller could do or discover that would tip the scales like they eventually tipped on Watergate?
25. Is there anything, at all, that Trump could do - fire Mueller, issue blanket pardons, shoot someone on 5th Ave. - that could tip them?
26. Are the scales still capable of tipping? Are there any limits left? Tomorrow will kick off our grand experiment in earnest.
27. My guess: no & no.
*@mattyglesias* is probably right. ☹️
Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
My prediction: Mueller fired, blanket pardons, Rs defend, Russians hack again in 2018, House Ds win popular vote by 7 points, GOP majority.
- The US conservative movement has been bulldozing norms for decades. This is just another increment. Why would it play out any different?
- Maybe I'm too pessimistic. We'll see. Perhaps US institutions still have a little life left in them.
- The Cubs winning the Series was the last good thing to happen. Maybe this Series will break the streak. 🤞