If a new referendum on Brexit was announced..

[bbcessex]

Would you be up in arms about that?
Discussing last night.. I think given the margins in the last vote and the (being charitable) confusion and uncertainty over the Brexit plans, a new referendum would generally be accepted.

DH (remainer) thinks a re-vote is not constitutional & would cause uproar (amongst all).

Who is unreasonable ?

There was an opportunity for the electorate to vote in some potential ‘heroes’ though - the new reverse-UKIP Party ran on an anti Brexit ticket.
If the burning desire of the majority was to stop Brexit above all else the option was there for them.

Remainers have their very own version of UKIP in the Lib Dem’s, yet their vote share reduced in this year’s GE.

I think you had good reasons m4dad. I'm very remain but the result hardly came out of nowhere, not with Farage and Hannan elected year after year as MEPs. As for the Guardian, it has articulated the left wing case for Lexit at times, it's not the bubble on its own. The EU is about a million miles from perfect, I just thought it was a lot better than not having it. Europe does war or it does the Eu.

I don't think we should have more referendums, unless we take them seriously and make them part of our constituton. The negotiations are going so badly it's frightening but the sooner we in the UK are faced with the reality the better - there is no one who would do any better because we don't know what we want and we won't have much to offer. Project Feet (my new favourite name) is proceeding as expected though not on schedule.

Sandycarrots.
"The reality is that with sterling down 20% on the year, and job losses quietly growing in the background"

Sterling was overvalued, a remain vote was priced in to that rate, a Brexit vote caused a correction. We haven't lost any money, but we have gained a serious exporting advantage. Compass group a couple of months ago reported a massive increase in sales due to the lower pound, as are many other businesses,

Of course we've had a current account deficit of £84 bln in 2016, but that isn't relevant here. The balance of trade has narrowed significantly since the fall in the £

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/may2017

Therefore we must be taking more money in that we were previously so we have made money, or more correctly, loss far less. Yet you still feel the need to make a political point out of the fall in sterling ?

The IMF are in a better position than most as an international financial org'. They can model international markets with it. Anyway, I take Ashoka Mody's view
From Oct 2016:

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/10/currency-guru-says-pound-slide-liberates-uk-from-malign-grip-of/

..The slump in sterling is a blessing in disguise after years of overvaluation and helps to break the corrosive stranglehold of the financial elites over the British economy, according to a former bail-out chief for the International Monetary Fund. “The UK economy is rebalancing amazingly well. It is a stunning achievement that a once-in-fifty-year event should have gone to smoothly,”

As for Job losses “growing in the background” Which jobs are you talking about, what companies, in what sector?

As for Job losses “growing in the background” Which jobs are you talking about, what companies, in what sector?

Monarch?
Those weapons makers, BAF?

But I suppose those aren't in the background.

I mean really, it hasn't even started yet and we are seeing instability and uncertainty.

The job losses haven't happened yet as it takes time for companies to plan and there's still hope for a solution which gives single market/customs union access. But do not be under any illusion that moving to WTO terms would be disastrous for the UK economy

• car and aerospace industries would be decimated as tariffs and Just in Time production would hit hard
• food prices would rise due to customs delays
• financial services hit due to lack of passports
• communications jobs hit by lack of ability to be recognised across border
• NI farmers (including DUP voters) hit hard as they could no longer sell milk to the Republic

The benefits of the EU - the ability for companies to trade across 28 countries without any barriers and to have the same standards recognised in all are very real. The UK has benefitted hugely from inward investment as we have been used by many multinational companies as their EU base from which to access the whole single market - see Nissan etc. Having the same standards requires compromise. If threes a hard sovereignty first Brexit then those advantages will disappear.

For a small flavour, Ofcom yesterday gave a speech on how Brexit affects the communications industry. Sunny uplands it is not

www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/speeches/2017/what-does-brexit-mean-for-communications-customers

And we've never seen uncertainty, firms large and small going under, or a drop in the pounds value before?

Monarch: How exactly did a lower £ undermine Monarch? Their problems started decades ago with inadequate levels of customer service. Ever since the early days of the Indy UK Airline (non State owned) operating air package holidays, the competition's been severe with airlines going bust / taken over. The ECAA has created greater competition with the additional

Freedoms to operate a low cost airline within the EU ouside of its Country of registration. So It will continue to be 'dog eat dog' .

I take it you mean BAE systems? They're jobs losses are in in military, maritime and intelligence services, mainly due to poor orders for the Typhoon/Eurofighter. Explain the Brexit connection please, as even at Remain Central at The Guardian aren't claiming that one?

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/bae-systems-is-planning-1000-job-cuts

By aerospace, I mean Airbus.

The uncertainty by Brexit is of a different magnitude to anything that has happened since WWII. Whilst the consequences of pulling out from agreements with all our major trading partners (not just EU as we also benefit from the agreements the EU has reached with other countries. ) are so great that it's hard to believe that we won't step away from the brink.

I say again, now that we have triggered Article 50 do we know that the EU would accept us back under our old terms? We could be forced to join the Euro and Schengen.

Oh, thank you, tiggy, that was very clear and helpful!

We don't know anything - no one has ever used article 50 before and there are no agreements.

I remain grateful that we didn't join the euro - one cockup we didn't make.

Absolutely. Uncertainty is the killer in today's finance environment. The orders cancelled will be bad enough, but increased risk also increases costs of finance and insurance.

This is commonly known.

I agree...

And that's because not only was there no plan for a Leave vote in place, it was forbidden by Cameron during the ref' campaign.

A Leave vote was being characterised as a total 'leap in the dark' and it would not have been the dark if civil servants had done some work on it in advance:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/david-cameron-accused-gross-negligence-brexit-contingency-plans

As a staunch Remain-er I'd be delighted if there was a revote that stood a chance of stopping this idiocy in its tracks. It feels like the Tories are trying their best to shoot this country in the foot in as many ways as possible right now and it's incredibly frustrating.

I remain grateful that we didn't join the euro - one cockup we didn't make. And if we don't leave the EU now there is no guarantee that we won't be forced to join the euro at a future date. Who knows what else the EU will dictate, we need the certainty of controlling our own country.

Sterling was overvalued, a remain vote was priced in to that rate, a Brexit vote caused a correction. We haven't lost any money, but we have gained a serious exporting advantage. Compass group a couple of months ago reported a massive increase in sales due to the lower pound, as are many other businesses,

why was the sterling overvalued?

The problem is that the loss in value in the sterling is offset by all the uncertainty. People aren't investing in business because no one knows what our trade arrangements will be.

As for the OP, I think we couldn't have another referendum on the exact same question, but I think what could happen is a referendum on a slightly different question which will amount to a second referendum.

Crackednips In answer to you question...

Rushing so shall just post and run...

Source Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-companies-tracker/

General overview by bloomberg on:
earning hits
· Mondelez International - The food company shrinks the size of some Toblerone bars in the U.K., citing higher costs.
· Apple - The U.S. tech giant raised prices of some of its computers and other products in the U.K. by 20 percent.
· Microsoft - The tech giant raised prices of enterprise software and cloud offerings by as much as 22 percent in the U.K. because of the weak pound.
· Rolls Royce - The British aircraft-engine maker posted a loss of $1.8 billion pounds ($2.37 billion) in the first half of the year after taking an accounting hit relating to the weakness of the pound after its post-referendum plunge
· Wizzair - The Hungary-based budget airline has halved the number of aircraft and frequencies it intends to add to U.K. routes as the collapse in the pound makes British destinations less profitable.

and on cost cuts
· Addecco - Brexit uncertainty caused London financial services firms to stop hiring, hurting revenue and the temporary-staffing firm.
Wienebergen - The world's biggest brickmaker has cut U.K. production of clay products following a slowdown in demand before the referendum Ryainair - The Irish low-cost airline will allocate 50 planes due for delivery this year to non-U.K. bases as part of an investment shift toward continental Europe after the Brexit vote.
Siemens - The German engineering company will freeze new investment in wind power in the U.K. until it has more clarity on the U.K.’s future trade relationship with the European Union, a spokeswoman for the company said.

Source here
“Drinks giant Diageo has been criticised for moving its vodka production out of Scotland because of Brexit.
The company, which manufactures Smirnoff and Circo vodka, is reportedly shifting its production to Italy and US, which will lead to the loss of 105 roles at its plants in Fife and Glasgow.

Research by games industry trade body Ukie found that 40 percent of games companies based in the UK were considering relocating after the UK decided to leave the EU. [more here]

The costume and fancy dress supplier has been headquartered in Gainsborough and Leeds for the past 120 years, yet Smiffy’s director, Elliot Peckett, announced it would open a new head office in the Netherlands as a result of Brexit.”

Source here
Nestlé has announced that they are to axe 300 UK jobs and move Blue Riband biscuit production to Poland. More than likely this is about cost saving and has nothing to do with Brexit but it does introduce some interesting questions. [more here]

Source here
HSBC moving 1,000 jobs to Paris

Source here
Tiffany&Co might move to Amsteram

Source here
Vodafone warns it may move its HQ out of the UK
Richard Branson (Virgin Airlines Group) cancels deal worth 3,000 jobs
EasyJet attempts to get airline certificate in Europe
Siemens puts export and investment plans on hold

Source here
Airbus says production ‘could’ move out of Britain unless Brexit demands are met Company wants "non-negotiable" demands over the free movement of people

Source here
Cosmetics chain Lush is planning to shift much of its production to Europe (Germany), following the Brexit vote.[more here]

Source here
BMW (BAMXF) is a case in point: The German automaker is considering whether to produce the new electric version of its iconic Mini car in mainland Europe rather than at its main U.K. facility in Oxford. [more here]

Source here
UK insurer Hiscox will set up its new EU subsidiary in Luxembourg as it plans for life after Brexit, opting for the duchy over Malta.

Source here:
BARCLAYS has confirmed plans to expand its Dublin operations as part of Brexit contingency plans, amid a lack of uncertainty about the future of financial services in Britain.

General news:
76% of U.K. CEOs consider leaving Britain after Brexit, survey finds [source here]

Source here
Global investors with operations in the U.K. looking to relocate have identified Germany as the top destination following Britain's decision to leave the European Union, according to the latest EY study.

Source here
the European Medicines Agency and the European Banking Authority, which employ 1,050 people between them and must leave London because of Brexit.

And if we don't leave the EU now there is no guarantee that we won't be forced to join the euro at a future date. Who knows what else the EU will dictate, we need the certainty of controlling our own country.

There is such a guarantee: eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3Al25060.

Fair enough to want to leave the EU and to have serious disagreements with it, but stating that we could be forced to join when that is not the case is silly.

Also, interesting with ref to Ireland/

www.irishjobs.ie/JobDesc.aspx?ID=8080165

Ireland's financial services industry is set to absorb in the region of 13,000 jobs from the UK arising following its decision to vote in favour of Brexit.
That's according to an analysis carried out by John Ring of Knight Frank as part of the agency's Dublin Office Market Review and Outlook for 2017.
Using statistics gleaned from a range of sources, including the European Parliament, the British Banking Authority and the Brussels-based 'think tank', Bruegel, Ring has estimated Ireland will gain up to 15pc of the employment leakage arising from Brexit.
While the British Banking Authority states that 25pc or 262,500 of the UK's financial services 1.05m strong workforce is engaged in wholesale banking, Bruegel believes that only one third of this activity (87,499 jobs) will migrate to the EU 27 [member states].
Should that prediction be proven to be accurate, Ireland's 15pc share of the post-Brexit spoils would amount to 13,125 additional jobs, Ring believes.

I think on every level Britain will be worse off post Brexit, how much worse is debatable. The decision has been made and they just need to get on with it now. Let's face it Britain was never a very pro-EU country or as Juncker said "it wasn't exactly a tight love affair anyway".

The whole process is a drag on Britain and the EU. The EU will probably come out of this strong and there are tough times ahead for the UK in my opinion (with some real risk with regards to Scotland, Northern Ireland etc) but Britain will be free to self govern which is what this is all about. I feel sorry for pro-remainers who will no longer have the same access to the EU (yes there will be Visas etc but it will not be so easy just to move for another EU country and what about programs like Erasmus etc).

Britain can actually reenter the EU in the future (with it's tail between it's legs) however unlikely still possible.

the whole process is a drag on Britain and the EU. The EU will probably come out of this strong

The EU are skint and the place is crumbling around them. What makes you think they will come out strong?

Fair enough to want to leave the EU and to have serious disagreements with it, but stating that we could be forced to join when that is not the case is silly

There is no reason why the EU couldn't decide to pass a law that removes opt out clauses, and make everyone adopt the euro. The only way we can ever have certainty in the UK is to be in control of our own laws.

M4dad - what makes you think they are crumbling?

It’s also supply chains - these are complex and cross boundaries seamlessly now, allowing specialisms to flourish. With ‘friction’ every time they need to come back to the UK we will likely be cut out of the chain. Satellite manufacture is a good example I understand.