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(THREAD) The single most important fact in the Trump-Russia investigation is a never-discussed one. This thread discusses it. Please share.
Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson Oct 4
1/ Investigators are now trying to determine exactly when every member of the Trump campaign found out Russia was working to elect Trump.
2/ These dates are of legal importance because they establish a "mens rea" (mental state) for possible crimes committed by Trump and others.
3/ Once Trump, his family, and/or his campaign aides knew Russia was committing crimes to assist Trump, certain actions became prohibited.
4/ For instance, once Trump had this knowledge, he could not publicly deny it without running afoul of federal Aiding and Abetting statutes.
5/ For instance, once Don Jr. had this knowledge he couldn't take any action in furtherance of a plan to benefit from Russia's illegal acts.
6/ Knowledge of Russian illegalities—even broadly—is a necessary precursor to what we colloquially call "collusion" (not a legal term here).
7/ This is why all of Trump's most audacious lies—and his family's, and his aides'—center on their knowledge of what Russia was doing.
8/ Paul Manafort's excuse for not knowing Russia was working to elect Trump? (a) he didn't check his email; (b) he was looking at his phone.
9/ Jared Kushner's excuse for not knowing Russia was working to elect Trump? (a) he left a big meeting early; (b) he didn't check his email.
10/ What do the Trump aides who changed the GOP platform last July say in response to charges they were executing a quid pro quo for Russia?
11/ They say (a) they were executing orders Trump gave March 31, 2016; (b) but don't blame Trump, because he didn't know what we were doing.
12/ What's Trump's excuse as to Russia working to elect him—after admitting he knew and then getting briefed on it on August 17, 2016?
13/ Why, he just didn't believe what U.S. intel agencies said, of course! He just didn't believe the mountains of evidence we all saw!
14/ Now ask yourself: does Bob Mueller believe any of these lies? Does the FBI? Does the DOJ? Do American voters? Would a duly-seated jury?
15/ FACT: Don was directly told by a trusted friend that Putin was working to elect his dad. He knew this as of the first week of June 2016.
16/ Now consider: despite the way the Russia issue blew up after June 2016, Don says he never told his dad Putin was working to elect him.
17/ Don, Jared, and Manafort say they never discussed the issue again—with anyone—and deliberately plotted to keep this info from Trump.
18/ Do you believe that? Do you think Mueller does? Or the FBI? The DOJ? Most American voters? Most American Congressmen? Future jurors?
19/ You think Don sat there watching Russia news every single day for months, yet never told daddy Putin was confirmed as "in his corner"?
20/ Do you believe that—once the Russia news broke shortly after June 2016—
Kushner and Manafort never went back to look at their emails?
21/ Do you think Kushner and Manafort were—start to finish—in the dark about who Veselnitskaya was, who she worked for, and what she wanted?
22/ Do you believe none of the Russia news between June 2016 and this summer caused Kushner or Manafort to reflect back on that meeting?
23/ Why did Trump witness-tamper with his son—exposing himself/Don to prison—with false statements on the meeting? Why? Knowledge matters.
24/ This explains fantastical tales of phone-checking/email-ignoring at the exact moments knowledge—legally speaking—could be established.
25/ This explains Trump's increasingly grotesque and deranged denials of reality on Russian interference: if he says otherwise, knowledge.
26/ This is why the news that Don and Ivanka were about to be charged with felony fraud matters. It goes to their honesty—which is now key.
27/ Don/Ivanka repeatedly lied to consumers about how many Trump SoHo units had sold. So do you think they'd lie to save dad's presidency?
28/ And this is why every single lie Trump tells is legally relevant on the question of his reputation/propensity for honesty versus deceit.
29/ Trump admitted Russia was helping—then was briefed on it—then reversed course and said otherwise when he saw the danger of an admission.
30/ But his reputation for deceit—it's legendary—would prompt an investigator or juror to presume his initial briefing sealed his knowledge.
31/ The danger now is non-attorney journalists confusing evidence of Aiding and Abetting with "evidence of a cover-up." They're different.
32/ There's evidence of a cover-up—Mueller could get Trump on Obstruction with a jury right now—but also Aiding and Abetting a Russian plot.
33/ The evidence of a cover-up overlaps in many particulars with the evidence Trump and his team knew Russia was interfering, then aided it.
34/ For instance, it isn't legal for Trump to learn on August 17th, 2016 that Russia was committing crimes against the U.S., and then...
35/ ...send his chief foreign policy aide—Sessions—to negotiate unilateral sanctions-lifting with Russia's ambassador three weeks later.
36/ So let's stop talking collusion—a vague and meaningless term in this legal scenario—and instead discuss "knowledge of illegal activity."
37/ Don, Jared, and Manafort were on legal notice that Russia was illegally stealing information from June 9, 2016 onward—at the latest.
38/ So no, Don wasn't entitled to take that meeting—given what he'd been told. And Manafort couldn't push a GOP platform change weeks later.
39/ Indeed, arguably, the entire campaign was on notice Russia aimed to secretly negotiate with and aid Trump from March 24, 2016 onward.
40/ On that date, Papadopoulos told seven senior Trump staffers that Putin wanted to meet with Trump—and felt Trump could improve relations.
41/ On that basis, any subsequent revelation that Russia was committing crimes should've been read by the campaign as a pro-Trump proffer.
42/ Note that, in this analysis, I'm approaching this as a former criminal attorney and former criminal investigator—we do think this way.
43/ The media can't—it feels—call Trump a liar when he lies to (dis)establish his legal knowledge. But as an attorney, I see it differently.
44/ But as we enter the intermediate stages of the Mueller probe, we all must be thinking in legal terms—as we're in the legal sphere now.
45/ So if you want to talk Russia on social media, I'd suggest focusing on the date each actor had knowledge of Russia's illegal acts. {end}