To really wish someone other than Tony Blair had asked us to rise up against brexit?

[DeviTheGaelet]

Can't see a thread about this. And yes I know there is a brexit topic but I wanted to post in AIBU to see what people thought. If you don't want to read about brexit and have no opinion click away now.
Tony Blair is urging remainers to rise up against brexit because we didn't know what we were voting for and it's going to be disastrous for the country.
I totally agree it's a disaster and I think it's shocking we can plunge into the unknown when only just over 50% of voters voted for it in an advisory referendum with a campaign based on lies. I've been desperate for a political party to get behind on a remain ticket.
But why the fuck does it have to be Tony Blair, the man who totally ignored strong public feeling on Iraq who says this? Where are the opposition in parliament?

'I don't believe everyone's opinion is equally valid on every issue, no. I think when you're considering a course of action that will have huge ramifications socially, politically and economically on both a domestic and a global scale not just for a few years but for decades, possibly lifetimes, then the people making the decision to do that and weighing up the pros and cons bloody well better be experts in their field.'

I like this from Naseem Taleb: the definition of the 'intellectual-yet-idiot' or 'IYI':

'The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences. While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools and PhDs as these are needed in the club.'

It would genuinely be interesting to see the results of a second referendum.

Honestly speaking, I don't think the result would change much at the moment. In.a couple of years, when higher prices have started to bite and when jobs have started to go, then I think it might be a different story. By that time, though, it may be too late.

I have come across quite a few people who think it will all be ok because the economy hasn't crashed yet. They seem not to have noticed that we still haven't actually left.

I suspect that Leave would have a bigger majority at the moment.

Yes indeed. I suspect that a lot of non-voters were lukewarm Remainers, who just assumed that the country would vote to stay.

Well, we have to - that's the point of them not voting!

I suspect otherwise

We do know that a lot of the non-voters were younger, and that younger people were more likely to vote remain. I think it's also easier to be apathetic when you want to keep the status quo.

Of course, we have no means of really knowing. The fact is, they didn't exercise their right to vote, so whatever they wanted, it doesn't count.

Mummy I have dealt with extreme poverty, multiple pregnancy losses, alcoholism, death of siblings, parents with dementia in their 50's etc etc. I also do a job where I am exposed to the kind of suffering that is simply beyond the imagination of most people in a first world country- I have heard a woman from Sierra Leone talk about being strapped into a chair, have her 2 year old son beheaded, and his head placed in her lap and have to sit like that for 3 days until she was rescued. I am pretty tough.
As a PP said, Brexit will probably not have a huge impact on me as I am in a very fortunate position. I worry for my children but at least they've got Irish Passports.
What makes me so angry is the we should simply never have been put in this situation. This referendum was called by a PM simply to shut up an annoying minority of his party. The electorate weren't clamouring for it, it was simply to shut up a small number of MPs who might have defaulted to UKIP.
Whatever anyone says, it absolutely was an advisory referendum which meant that the government was under no obligation to act on the result. It was far far to complex a decision to have been put to a binary answer. I think that the great majority of the Electorate didn't understand the complexity of what they were voting for. I have aPolitics degree and I don't understand it that well.For a referendum to be binding, there needs to be a Referendum Act which sets out a minimum majority needed for a major constitutional change - usually two thirds and a minimum turnout.
What if Leave had won by the one or two votes? Would people really feel happy leading us out of the EU on that basis with an advisory referendum?
My current job involves working with women who are pregnant or who have babies or young children. I have been involved with women who have children with congenital birth defects and women who have children who are severely disabled as a result of their birth being mismanaged by midwives and/or doctors. I know it's anecdotal but my experience has been that parents of children who are disabled as a result of random bad luck such as chromosomal abnormalities seem to find it easier to accept it and move on and just see it as 'one of those that things' that could happen to anyone whereas the parents of children damaged by negligence find it much harder and struggle to accept that their child may never walk or talk because it could have been very different if people had done their job properly.
This should simply never have happened and I am therefore not prepared to just shut up and my move on.

Thank you mummy

I think there's probably as much of a split amongst non-voters as voters. Given Remain was ahead in the polls, some potential Leavers won't have bothered as they may have thought it was a done deal. Some people might have been fairly apathetic beforehand but taken up a position since - on either side.

Brilliant post MrsHooliesCardigan.

The other prevailing factor for voting apathy is poverty, and we are repeatedly told they are the Leave voters. You are quite correct though; we cannot know.

MsHoolies a very humbling post.

I would also be fascinated at the result of a 2nd referendum. I sincerely believe it would be remain as agree that people who didn't vote thought it was a done deal that we would stay in. The shock of the nation on 24th was evident that this was the case.

People saying stop moaning and make the most of it, I am not sure what I can do as an individual to make the best of it. I will never accept it and will never be happy about it, we may well end up ok in a couple of decades but dear god it seems like a hell of a risk just to be ok when we already were. What happens in those couple of decades, are we supposed to just wing it??

babybarrister I'm not seeing any posts blaming Leave for the referendum? I absolutely agree that Cameron's complacency is a large part of the whole mess.

I don't divide everything along Remain/Leave lines, black or white.

Let me make this quite clear (as Camoron would say ) I totally blame him for the referendum happening in the first place. I think the lack of any planning about what happened in the event of a Leave vote was bordering on criminal negligence. And then the fucking coward just flounces off and leaves everyone to clear up his mess. Forgot about locking Hillary up, I'd like to lock him up.

Well said MsHoolies, excellent posts.

Haha... trying to appeal for popular uprisings after doing their level best to knock us off in senseless war after senseless war? Right.

running
I don't blame leave for the referendum but I do blame them for lying through their teeth and giving the impression there was some kind of plan when there wasn't.
The whole thing is a shambles and now we are pretending that a 52% vote is "the will of the people" and a mandate for all kinds of craziness like leaving the free market.
I really think if the terms of brexit (no free market, no customs union) were put in front of voters now in plain English they would vote remain.

Devi did you see the Dispatches programme last night with the Brexit Basket? Very sobering observations on production and consumption of our food, where it comes from and what it will mean for us when we leave. I just don't believe that a lot of the leave voters say in Boston, will really be happy with much higher prices and far less choice?

As for the NHS report this morning, I know that isn't directly to do with Brexit but you would think they would be saying 'oh it's all going to be fine because of course we will have an extra £350 million to spend in a couple of years time' that didn't appear to be the case though....

I forgot to comment on your original OP, sorry! I think Tony Blair's speech was very good actually, he is a brilliant orator and summed up exactly how I feel BUT I do think his credibility is fairly low sadly. I must say I really don't get the total hate for him, there was someone on Any Answers R4 Saturday who was being utterly vile, almost libellous about him. I am sure he has regrets like many others about decisions made in the past but often you are working with the material you have at that point in time obviously different in hindsight. Bush didn't help one jot of course.

I have come to the sad conclusion that some of the hate is because some of the Labour party don't actually want to be in power and take difficult decisions, if you are in eternal opposition you can never be proved wrong. Hence the current shambles.
There is another thread elsewhere about prices in supermarkets, it's starting to be noticed but it's just too late .

MrsHoolie - please read the post about IYI from Larrygrylls.

larrygrylls this is literally the best thing I have ever read about Brexit. thank you for posting this.

"I think that the great majority of the Electorate didn't understand the complexity of what they were voting for

MrsHoolie - that is incredibly patronising. People have different levels of understanding and different views depending on how things affect them. so what do you suggest then, only IYI's get to vote. Ridiculous.

this should simply never have happened

Of course it shouldn't why should we ask people to determine their own destiny especially when they are stupid and don't understand the complexity of the issue. They need someone more intelligent to make their decisions and decide for them. can you not see how ridiculous that sounds in a democracy?

I am sure you are very good at your job and a caring person, but your post about children born with disabilities vs those who are damaged at birth I actually find a bit offensive. How you can juxtapose this with a vote on brexit, as the parent of a disabled child, has got me shaking my head.

mummy I have read larry's post and I agree with some of it but not all. As for deciding our own destiny, that's what elections are for. Referenda have never played much of a role in our democracy- the last one was forty odd years ago. So not holding this one wouldn't have meant that we are no longer a democracy.
All votes count equally (obviously) but I do think that some votes are more 'considered' than others i.e. Some people read Manifestos, watch candidate's speeches, look at political websites, read Hansard etc and some people vote for a party because that's what a particular newspaper told them they should do. Most people are somewhere in between.
I stand by what I said about this being too complex to put to a yes/no vote, especially as we can't change our minds in five years time like you can with a GE. It's 8 months on from the referendum and we haven't even triggered a50 yet despite shiny Dave saying he'd do it the next day. That's how complex it is.
My point about parents of children with disabilities may have sounded clumsy and I apologise if it offended anyone- I did say I was only talking from personal experience. What I was trying to say is that we all know that bad things happen - people get cancer or drown or die in earthquakes or in car accidents, they go blind or develop a degenerative disease. I know some religious people believe everything happens for a reason. Personally, I believe most of life is random chance and there's not much we can do about it. In my personal experience, parents whose children have a disability that was caused by medical negligence have found it harder to come to terms with than those whose children have a disability because of chance because they know it was avoidable. If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, I will get on and deal with it as we won't have a choice. However, I will find it hard to let go of the thought that it was avoidable.