To continue to wonder who is happy with where Brexit is heading

[Bearbehind]

Whilst I'm sure Leavers will undoubtedly think AIBU the last thread filled up so here's another 1000 opportunities to discuss what you think about where Brexit is heading.

You can't say something is infinite whilst putting a finite limit on it then claim maths. Something is either finite or infinite. Immigration can never be infinite because there are not infinite amounts of people.

Stripes,

Not vastly poorer than us? Some of the eastern block have roughly 20% per capita of what we do.

Bear,

There does seem to be a habit in these threads, of which you are particularly guilty, of trying to get leavers to justify in a detailed way every single minuscule policy detail going forwards. If people needed to know these to vote I am informed way, we would probably have an electoral college if a few thousand people over all of the uk.

When you are asked the same, however, you don't really want to engage in a meaningful way. Pitiful Eurozone GDP growth ('we are not in the euro zone'), youth unemployment in Southern Europe ('not our problem matey') or the inevitable implosion of the Eurozone ('may never happen')....,

If you want a reasoned debate, you also have to listen to and meaningfully engage with counter arguments.

Not sure what prompted that larry

I completely accept no one can give any detail on specific policies but it's not unreasonable to ask what general policies/ principles are important to people and, if any one gives any, to then ask for specifics where relevant.

For example saying you want to leave the EU so we don't have to abide by their laws immediately begs the question, which laws do you want to change?

Please show me where I have been asked a question I haven't answered?

I have not said the first 2 of those points you made in brackets and the third is true.

I don't profess to be a political or economics expert but I am capable of weighing up arguments that are presented.

It just seems to be the case that noone defends the questions I ask - just look at brexit as an example- she posted a load of crap then disappeared.

I disagree with your argument about businesses hedging their currency if they are exposed to exchange rate fluctuations because it don't believe it is right for every business and a still maintain its not as simple as not buying contents insurance.

Neither of us are nessarily wrong and it's actually a good example of the wider Brexit picture and my frustration with it.

All anyone can do when a decision has to be made is look at the options and go with ehag they believe to be the right choice.

That involves considering as many possible outcomes as you can think of/ research/ be told about and then making a choice.

It doesn't entail picking something that sounds vaguely positive and making a decision based on that without considering everything else.

Bear,

The only way any human being can make any decision with an almost infinite number of variables is just to choose the one we have the most philosophical/moral sympathy with and hope the 'experts' can most effectively implement the decisions.

Even the most expert reports begin with stating their assumptions, which are nearly always not borne out. Even when they are there are feedback loops that people have not considered.

Re hedging, there are occasions when it is best not to hedge. These are nearly always to do with competition in heavily competitive businesses (utilities and airlines come to mind). Even then a partial hedge is nearly always optimal. I used to price fx forwards daily for business customers, so I am an 'expert' here. For most businesses, leaving unhedged fx exposure is N unnecessary and foolish risk to take.

If you do not expect the euro to collapse, how about you explain the mechanism where this won't happen? The only one I can imagine is wholescake debt write off or physical transfer of funds from Germany to Southern Europe.

The whole discussion is far more nuanced in both directions than you (and some others) are making out.

larry If someone has weighed the options and reached a conclusion i expect they could articulate their thought process.

Without exception I have never seen a Leaver on here say I want X/y/z and I think it is worth the consequence of a/b/c

You misquoted me on 2 points above and re the third, you said it was 'inevitable the Eurozone will implode', then quoted me saying 'may never happen' (and I not even sure I've actually said that either)

I said in my reply it was true- it may never happen.

I don't profess to fully understand the mechanics the Euruzone but I'd like to hear your argument why it's inevitable it will collapse.

If that's true we're all in the shit anyway because we aren't going to escape the repercussions if that, in or out of the EU.

Bear,

I did not misquote you. My quotes were the general thrust of the responses to the points I made. I am sorry if I was ambiguous in that regard.

Re the Eurozone:

The southern European countries (the 'PIGS' as Goldman christened them) came into the Euro at far too high an exchange rate. They thus could not compete in the single market with Northern Europe, and especially Germany. As monetary policy was made for the Eurozone as a whole and Germany was booming, the ECB kept interest rates far too high for far too long for these countries, furthering their death spiral.

As far as I can see, using 'Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure in Constant Prices: Total Gross Domestic Product for Italy©, National Currency, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted', same source as my post above, Italian GDP 'grew' an average of 0.15% per annum between 1999 and 2014, clearly not enough to in any way help them grow out of debt.

As they could not generate enough money to run their public services and pay down existing debt, they had to borrow more. Right now, Italian debt to GDP ratio is 130%+. Being a member of the Euro, Italy cannot print its own currency and, ultimately, if they run out of reserves, they cannot pay their debt. This can again be contributed further to by lenders demanding a higher yield. They did this in the Euro crisis and it nearly came to an end. Fortunately the ECB, contrary to law and its mandate (making a mockery of all those who keep quoting EC regulations on this thread), bought Italian debt in the open market to drive yields back down. This can work for a while, but if confidence is lost in a serious way, they do not have enough funds for a full scale bail out.

I really cannot see how the Euro can survive much longer without Euroland becoming a federation with wholescale grants to worse off regions.

That is it in a nutshell, not very well written (apologies). The Telegraph article below also explains it well.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/11/italy-must-chose-between-the-euro-and-its-own-economic-survival/

I don't often find myself agreeing with Nicky Morgan but I have to here.

One of the golden rules of politics is that if your opponent is attacking you personally then they are rattled.
As we now see with the Brexit debate, those who are wildly enthusiastic about the UK leaving the EU are focused on knocking out any dissenting voices rather than actually answering the hard constitutional and practical questions that have arisen as a consequence of the 23 June vote.

You either don't understand or you're pretending not to. There is no case or argument that migration is controlled.

Let me give an analogy.

If I want to acquire potatoes, and one farm has a supply of potatoes maximum one hundred, and another farm has an uncontrolled supply of potatoes then I have at my disposal an uncontrolled supply of potatoes. It doesn't matter if part of my potato supply is controlled. If the rest is uncontrolled, then there is an uncontrolled supply,

I did not misquote you. My quotes were the general thrust of the responses to the points I made. I am sorry if I was ambiguous in that regard.

I understand perfectly. There are controls on immigration therefore it is not uncontrolled. I've already said there's potential for more control, but it is not nor has it ever been uncontrolled.

What you mean is that we don't have the ability within the EU to say we will only take x number or x types or only from certain areas. This is very different from being uncontrolled.

Anybody bother to read the Telegraph article that I linked to? I think it is quite compelling.

Bearbehind
As ever you miss the point surfer, I'm saying if they do suffer they'll think it's a bad idea. There is a big difference between wishing it on people and thinking it will happen.

Really? Looks like a whole load of wishing to me.

Bearbehind Thu 08-Sep-16 08:17:29
Bear behind you want people in Sunderland to lose their jobs to punish them for voting for Brexit?

I want people who voted Leave to understand what damage they've done to the country. It seems that is only going to happen when they see beyond the flag flying rhetoric and actually start to feel the impact.

If you voted Leave even after being told your employer is very likely to look at alternative locations which are still in the EU in the event Leave won therefore now your job is on the line then I have absolutely no sympathy.

Peregrina Thu 08-Sep-16 08:31:50
I have been reflecting on this and yes, I agree. The Nissan workers were warned that their employer could pull out, so yes, if they get what they voted for they need to accept the consequences.

Bearbehind Thu 08-Sep-16 11:32:53
wrong I'm hoping people realise what a disaster Brexit is likely to be and do something about it.

I cannot comprehend the logic of someone voting Leave when they've been explicitly told it is very likely to result in their employer leaving the country, particularly in an area where there aren't many alternative job options.

If the threat of Nissan leaving the UK starts to convince people this is a really dangerous road we're treading and encourages them to change their opinion then I'm all for it.

Truly disgusting, shame on you.

That analogy only works for immigration if the potatoes spout legs and decide to enter your sack by of their own volition. You're comparing apples and oranges to stick to the plant life theme.

I did not misquote you. My quotes were the general thrust of the responses to the points I made. I am sorry if I was ambiguous in that regard.

larry you started an unprompted discussion on the style of some posters then said I was particularly guilty yet quoted things I hadn't even said.

If I'm guilty of whatever you perceive at least give me relevant examples,

Will get back to you on the telegraph piece when I'm home.

rorty, did you go back through posts from nearly 2 months ago for any other reason than to attempt to shit stir?

I did not say I wanted Nissan to pull out, I said I wouldn't be sympathetic to those who voted out who's jobs were then at risk if they did and I stand by that.

If we'd voted to Remain Nissans decision would have been a foregone conclusion, it was only put at risk because of the vote for Brexit therefore if that decision hadn't gone the way it did Leavers couldn't complain about it.

It turns out it's a moot point anyway now but I still believe that when people do start to personally feel the affects that 'project fear' warned of then the support for Brexit will wane.

No, there are no controls or freedom on of movement is meaningless. The only control is the maximum number of potential migrants which is the entire eu population.

Personal volition is not a control. We have no power over others' personal volition therefore no control.

There are controls winchester - I linked to them. There are no numerical controls, but that is not uncontrolled. Freedom of movement is not, nor has ever been, truly free. Even more so when you aren't Schengen.

Anybody bother to read the Telegraph article that I linked to? I think it is quite compelling.

I've now read it larry and my question is, if it is so compelling why is it nearly 6 months old.

I've heard nothing to indicate the situation is any worse now and I'm guessing as you've resorted to such an old link, you haven't either.

As ever, this goes back to my age old argument that no one thinks the EU is perfect but that doesn't automatically make leaving the right choice.

Then you are not talking about controls that have any meaningful bearing on numbers. You are arguing about something different and pretending it is the same.

No winchester I am making the point that there is no uncontrolled immigration into this country. There are many forms of control, numeracy is just one. Something is not uncontrolled because its not subject to a control you'd prefer.

Bear,

That is possibly the strangest response that I have read!

You asked what the problem was in the Eurozone and I gave you my own explanation and found an article that explained it even better.

I think this really indicates how little interest you actually have in the structure of the EC and valid arguments why we may not want to be a member.

'Such an old link'. Yes, it is old news. It is like linking to a diagnosis of terminal cancer, complete with scans and explanations of the medical facts, and you saying 'oh well, the patient is not yet in the final stages, so is clearly healthy enough'...um no, the patient is still dying, the only question is how long it will take.

'EU is not perfect' That could be the understatement of the year. It has destroyed half a continent's hopes and aspirations (as very well explained in my 'old link).

If you don't want to address the substance of the article, which I note that you have completely ignored, there is little point in an ongoing discussion.

We only allow open immigration from other EU countries which are not vastly poorer than us

I am not sure how to respond to that. Most people are very aware that former Eastern Bloc countries forced to live under communism are very very poor countries. Grindingly poor.

It was not what I voted for. Although both sides of the mainstream arguments were flawed and full of myths, assumptions and plain old fashioned propaganda. When I balanced it up it wasn't the most prudent of decisions so I voted No. But we are deluded to thing the EU was the best thing since sliced bread.

Anyway the decision has been made and you know what the world keeps on ticking amazingly. Its done, I am not losing sleep over the supposed end of the world or wasting my time and energy bitching. Only time will tell what happens. I am not for whining constantly. I have far too much on my plate. All I am bothered about is weathering what ever winds blow my way and making the best of things. I am starting to get sick of this bitchathon about the outcome.