To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

Except that it is WRONG to say that old people are the group most in favour of BREXIT.

In fact, by some distance it is those without a formal education, who split 2-1 in favour of BREXIT. Of course the Remain snobs would dismiss them as stupid and/or racist and insist that George Soros knows what's best for them, better than they do themselves, because obviously uneducated means stupid.

The reality is explained here: www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

The EU, and free movement of labour from poorer countries in Eastern Europe in particular, is a GIFT to the likes of Soros and his globalist cronies, allowing them to screw the poor into the ground with low wages, knowing full well that there's ten immigrants queuing up to take their jobs, many young and childless (so the government can foot the bill for the sickness and welfare payments for the workless natives).

And you don't need a degree in international relations to sus THAT equation out.

Oh, and there we go.

Just as I thought, a REMAINer couldn't resist a snide comment about old people being stupid.

Vile, vile, vile.

Vile, vile, vile.

Oh wind your neck in, you've been pumping out invective on this thread and then spin on a sixpence and give it the offended maiden aunt act.

Here's the LEXIT video, for those who sympathise with the likes of Tony Benn, Jeremy Corbyn (at least until about six months ago).

I'm actually excited at the prospect of change, but slightly frightened that this may be our only chance to exit.

From everything I've read/seen we are predicted to be worse off financially for a short term period only (whatever 'short term' is). I do fear that worries about the short term will put people off from voting to Leave but my vote is for the future, specifically my childs future.

My parents are voting leave. They have no mortgage, no jobs to keep & a rise in interest rates will increase their savings.

If leave's win they may have an out of work son in law though (& my salary won't keep our family afloat).

'Whatever short term is' - most economic models put Brexit as leading to lower incomes long term - it's not two or three years of pain for all the world's riches - it's twenty/thirty years or more.

If leave's win they may have an out of work son in law though (& my salary won't keep our family afloat).

My BIL could be in the same position but us still voting leave.

None if this is as straightforward as those leading either campaign would have us believe.

Well I hope your BIL has more savings than us!!

I have lots of othet reasons for voting remain (think my severely disabled son is much safer in Europe, want my younger kids to be able to live/work freely across the EU if they want, feel much more european than little Englander, think
Scotland & NI would be destabilised by us leaving & so the list goes on) but the risk of losing everything we have is the one that worries me most petsonally as we really can't afford DH to be out of work for even a short time. I'm sure there are many others in our situatuon.

'Whatever short term is' - most economic models put Brexit as leading to lower incomes long term - it's not two or three years of pain for all the world's riches - it's twenty/thirty years or more.

Where do you get those figures? Have tried Googling but have found nothing stating twenty/thirty years or more.

I did find an aritcle about Jim Mellon though who suggests staying in the EU will ruin Britain financially. www.express.co.uk/news/politics/677739/Britain-financial-crisis-disaster-remain-EU-referendum-Brexit

The FTSE and the pound appear to be tracking polls at the moment. Which seems to me to say that the collective wisdom of the market thinks brexit is a bad thing. Then business doesn't tend to like uncertainty, and brexit would lead to a long period of uncertainty whatever else happened. Almost all UK companies and economists who I've seen stating a view have said remain.
I'm scared too OP yanbu.

Well the economist who answered my question on the ask the experts mumsnet talk thread talked about the long term figures (how long do you think long term is?)

I worked in New Zealand 20 years after they lost their main trading partner (us) & they were still buggered - the farm I was working on had gone from farm hands in double figures to me (working for board & lodging). I can't see why we'd willingly put ourselves in that situation (they had no choice).

Long term isn't five years.

Not at all. You're absolutely right. Did you see that George Soros has come out and explained the potential impact eg of the pound losing value?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/2665363-EU-Referendum-Webchat-with-four-experts-on-Monday-20-June-at-12-noon?pg=3&order=

12:20 for the response (& a useful link explaining why different models give different predictions).

Particularly bad for the poor.

YANBU OP. Especially given thrfact that the Brexit campaign are STILL braying about £350m a week going to Europe (ignoring what we recieve back in rebates and funding). They have repeatedly been told not to use this figure but continue to do so....leaflet through my door yesterday and it was point no 1.
I seethe even more ehen they suggest this money could be used on tge NHS. Purleese...have you seen the people suggesting tgis? Gove, Johnson, Fridge (he's cold and white).
I wouldn't trust any of them with the NHS. All have spoken out,against it in the past.

Add in a bit of casual racism and Nazi style posters and you are right to feel fearful but not just for financial reasons.

Long term isn't five years.

....and short term isn't 20/30 years. (in my view anyway).

The thing is everything is speculation. What happens if we stay, what happens if we leave .... who knows? no one. Of course experts can come up with numerous scenarios but ultimately it's a case of wait and see.

Personally I think there are pros and cons of remaining and pros and cons of leaving, each effecting differently individuals differently. What is 'right' for one person won't necessarily be 'right' for me, which is why I respect everyones individual vote.

YANBU
I suspect the majority of those saying they're 'prepared to take the pain' for the short term (5 years? 10 years?) are in a financial position to do so (equity, savings, pension etc). Actually DH and I are in a fairly sound financial position too but in 5/10 years our children will be just starting out on their adult life - they're not in a position to 'take the hit'. I flirted with the idea of voting Leave and have read extensively - on both sides. Am now convinced that leaving the EU would be incredibly reckless and selfish, and will do untold damage to generations to come.

The Treasury btw believes the UK would be permanently poorer if we left. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

You may choose to not believe the Treasury but I think you'll find the majority of economists agree.

You may believe it's worth it in order to stick two fingers up at Brussels (or reclaim sovereignty or control borders- although if you want any sort of trade with the EU that's not going to be easy) but I can't say I do.

I agree it will have a major effect on the economy with various companies moving. The pound will certainly free fall on friday if we exited. Im still on the fence on which way to go myself for loads of reasons not just the economy. The trouble is without a crystal ball we dont know if the pain inflected by exiting will be short term pain for long term gain. Wish someone tell me which way to vote!

Particularly bad for the poor.

Which makes it all the more depressing that apparently it's those without a formal education ie more likely to be poor voting to leave...

SeminlNormal - when pretty much everyone (except Trump & Putin) tell you it would be economically disastrous to leave it becomes more than lots of different opinions.

I agree that leave is fine if you have lots of savings in the bank, no or low mortgage & you don't need an income (oh hello Boris), but the rest of us would be shafted.

Rather bizarrely the person who seems to have communicated this the best is John Oliver
m.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8

I hadn't heard that most older people are voting Leave! That's not my experience. Me, DH, my siblings, DH's sibling and the vast majority of my friends (all aged between 55 and 78) and my DM and MIL (aged 89 and 91), are all Remainers!

Leaving just doesn't make any sense at all. There would be nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Which makes it all the more depressing that apparently it's those without a formal education ie more likely to be poor voting to leave..

Divide and conquer.