Right Body I'm back. I've spared lots of boring figures for you and just gone for the shortest explanation I can type (it's still long)
Labour returned 30% of the vote. The swing this election was +1.4%. This is higher than the swing for the Tories which was +0.8%.
So let's think about how Labour could have gained votes but ultimately lost the election.
We gained votes in areas we were strong in. We did not gain votes in the marginals. This was key for Labour.
SNP gained 50 seats. Labour seats. Scotland voted for a socialist government. Labour could not deliver that to Scotland and they knew it. They voted with their principles and good on them.
For Labour to win now, we needed to pick up the seats from the Libdem massacre. We did not. Tories picked them up. We also didn't make enough headway in London. Why? I feel that Labour didn't engage the middle classes enough. A sense of mistrust over the economy, a feeling that Labour is "too left", "for the working classes" "full of ideology". England is inherently right wing and these voters swung that way rather than to the Left. It was these voters that got Blair elected.
Labour is left in the position that in order to become electable in a right wing country, we need to become just that. That's why Blair succeeded.
However, this time round, the party shifted slightly back to "Old Labour" ideologies and principles slightly. That's why the feeling on the ground was positive, that's why the exit polls confounded Labour. Labour supporters and members felt like we had our principles back. That we could vote with a clear conscience this time round. It gave a false impression of Labour confidence.
It's also what turned prospective Libdem voters into Tories and lost us the election.
The UKIP effect, well, they took a surprising percentage of the votes but only returned one seat. The UKIP vote was too think spread and ultimately was not a large contributing factor, IMO anyway.
I also have a whole other rant about why this country needs a unified Left now. But that's not for this thread 