To ask all Scottish MNrs to work together 2

[siiiiiiiiigh]

Sorry, filled the last thread with this, thought I'd better be part of Team Scottish MN and work together for those of us on the old thread...

Here's Armando's thoughts. I vote him in for everything.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/21/scottish-referendum-massive-voter-turnout-means-politics-changed-for-ever

Oh it is all very interesting, DC and AS are both very clever and willing to take risks. I think DC played it very well, even if his gamble briefly looked as though it hadn 't worked out. I think AS couldn't say, oh well we won't bother if Devo Max isn't available, therefore he had to go ahead, probably expecting the vote to be close but not a winner, after all only a third of the electorate usually supports independence. He had Nicola Sturgeon in the wings, known to be more of a gradualist and a supporter of Devo Max, and probably planned to throw himself on the sacrificial pyre after a no vote and let her take it forward. All they needed was a decent increase in the yes vote to put pressure on Westminster and they would make progress. I may have watched too many political dramas though.

I have also voted Lib Dem in the past as I am very keen on constitutional reform so I am happy with the interest in changes in Westminster too.

"If the perfect political party existed for Scotland,what would their policies be?"

I think that's a hard one, because while some policies lots of people would agree are universally good or bad, others are individual?

"I don't think it's paranoid to think DC's insistence on a Yes/No ballot was well thought through - that's how they play politics."

Well yes, but if David Cameron managed to purposely divide Scotland to do something that's not been noticed yet at the same time as setting labour up to be the fallguy by tying English powers to Scottish ones...he's a much much better politician than I gave him credit for, lol

BTW there has been a lot of coverage of the Ashcroft poll about which age categories voted for independence.

This YouGov one on the day had quite different results. Every age category except 25-39 year olds voted no.

Age 16-24 - 49% Yes 51% No
Age 25-39 - 55% Yes 45% No
Age 40-59 - 47% Yes 53% No
Age 60-64 - 45% Yes 55% No
Age 65+ - 34% Yes 66% No

Men voted 51% Yes 49% No
Women voted 42% Yes 58% No

very interesting figures.

Men/Women split particularly. Another reason for MN to rule the world

Thanks for that Spirited, I've become a bit of weary of some Yes people quoting the Ashcroft poll and using the over 65's as scapegoats for their anger and disappointment.

I'll have a look at the yougov one, but the ashcroft one is not reliable for some age groups because of the sample sizes. If I remember correctly they had 14 in the 16-17 group and 84 in the 18-24. Total 98 under 24.

Normally when drawing conclusions from a sample you'd look at a confidence interval I.e. Because it's a sample we don't know what the true result is at population level, but we can be a certain percentage confident that it lies within a certain range. The bigger the sample, the tighter that range becomes.

Don't have time to look it up just now but I think it was 71% yes in the younger band, 51% in 16-24 overall. If that's right the confidence intervals at a 95% confidence level would be :

41.9-91.6% for 16-17
40.7-61.2% for 16-24

Disclaimer in a hurry so used an online calculator but they look about right.

And that's assuming that the sample is a true representation of the population which it's not because their sample sizes are off with respect to regions ie they drew 20% from Glasgow.

Anyone making comments about how young people were let down by old on the basis of the ashcroft poll should think again-we have pretty much no idea how they voted! The yougov one is interesting, I'll have a squint.

Well - my three dses - all of whom are well under the age of retirement - all voted No.

It's quite scary how quickly older people have turned from lovely little old ladies holding cute babies which will all be well looked after in an iScotland to traitors who messed evrything up in some peoples opinion.
I was actually polled in that YouGov poll, got an invitation by email, my age group voted 53% no.

I think there needs to be a reasonable length of time before another referendum, because even if 44.7% still want it and haven't changed their minds, there's nothing to suggest that 55.3% have either. You've got to give it some time, see how the new powers go, give thing a chance to change before assessing whether there is a greater appetite for independence that would justify another referendum.

Not everything is, or should be, about independence. If 44.7% of people in Scotland vote SNP at the next GE and 55.3% of people split their votes between Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems, then the SNP could potentially win every seat via FPTP. It doesn't prove a majority of people want independence even if all those who vote SNP do.

I'm not going to vote Conservative to keep the SNP out, because not everything is about independence. I want to be part of the union, but that doesn't mean I want a Conservative government.

The fact that the SNP/45s both think that a Conservative government is damaging to Scotland and a reason to be independent AND are happy to talk about destroying Scottish Labour which would make a Conservative government more likely, exposes that they don't want what is best for Scotland, they want independence at any cost.

I think this is out of step with many of the people who voted Yes on the basis that was advertised to them - to protect Scotland from Conservative policies on the NHS etc. There are people who ideologically want independence at any cost, but no where near enough to win a majority. As it is, only 44.7% of people wanted Salmond's Indylite 'don't spook the horses' every thing you like about the UK will remain the same, proposition.

Several yes activists said they weren't fussed about a currency union and thought that a new currency or the euro were better options. If those were the eventual plans then I think it was deceptive to promise people the pound. If 50%+1 had voted for Yes on the basis of using the pound (or the Euro, or Nato etc), and then that wasn't possible, you could have ended up with a majority of the country deeply unhappy with the settlement on indy day.

I can understand why the Yes voters are so disappointed - they thought things were really going their way, and that there was going to be a Yes vote (I thought there was going to be a Yes vote, so I am sure that people who wanted it must have believed even more than I did that it was going to happen).

Some weeks ago, I wondered, on FB, how Scotland was going to heal after the referendum - it was clear then that, whatever the result was, it was going to be fairly close - which meant that whichever group won, the voters for the other side were going to be a substantial percentage of the population, and whichever side didn't win was going to be really unhappy about it - far, far more unhappy than most people would be about a General Election's results, say.

People did reply, and said that, whatever happened, we would move on into a brave new world - and I hope and pray that that will happen - but I think it is too soon to be expecting that to happen now. The Yes campaign were and still are deeply passionate about independence - it isn't just a political policy, it's a long-held dream - and I can understand why they feel that those of us who voted No have taken away their dream. All the stuff about people only voting No through fear, or because of bullying from Westminster, or because they are traitors, un-scottish, quislings, all the blaming of the elderly voters is a result of this huge disappointment. I guess you could say it is part of the grieving process.

I hope that, in time, the wounds will heal. I hope that Westminster carries through on its promises, and that, with those new powers, Holyrood and the people of Scotland can build a better, fairer society, that is passionately Scottish and proud of it, but is also a valuable and valued member of the UK, benefiting from all that has to offer, as well as bringing so much to the Union too.

But I am still feeling very insecure here. I love Scotland, and would like nothing better than to live out the rest of my life here. But if the emotional atmosphere doesn't get better, or if there are genuine, credible moves either towards another referendum in the not-too-distant future, or towards Scotland suing for independence without another referendum, I don't think we will be wanting to stay here - I couldn't take the stress of another referendum, and am finding it so hard to be, albeit indirectly, the object of the hatred and scorn of Yes voters. And I don't want to live in a country which could set aside the democratic choice of 55% of the voters in the referendum.

I've talked to dh about this - and we are going to see how things go. But if, a year or so from now, things are still all up in the air, we will be looking again at the possibility of moving back to England.

Agreed Ignecoccus, it's very unpleasant isn't it.

Some people are definitely adopting an independence at any cost tone, regardless of the damage that might be caused in the interim. How much have snp not bothered doing in the last 7 years which they could have been doing, because not doing it made the arguments for indy stronger?

I have published the small sample size if the Ashcroft poll on Facebook as I have seen it repeated, unqualified in quite a few articles. I seem to be the only person posting directly from a no vote perspective on my Facebook page but I am getting lots of likes.

You know what I would love, but what isn't gonna happen just now, is for a new Scottish party to be created that's got moderate Yessers who have dropped the idea of independence, liberal/conservate folk who are alienated by the Westminster elite and land ownership / extremes of income, and anyone else in between who understands a balance sheet.

The Scottish Pragmatist Party.

I'd vote for that, as long as it had progressive environmental policies.

I'd vote for them, *WhatWouldFreddieDo.

The thing to bear in mind, even about the YouGov poll is that even that poll was predicting Yes 46% No 54%, as the final result was 44.7% Yes 55.3% No, even more people voted No in the actual vote. So the actual percentages in the age groups voting no must have been higher.

I don't know what the Ashcroft poll was predicting overall, but it might also have a similar adjustment needing to be made.

2 votes already

But seriously, the political parties as they stand take a long time to change - look how long it took Labour to drag itself out of the 1970s. I can't see how the southern-based parties can adapt to reflect Scottish voters' needs and wants.

The thing is, I'm not a proclaimer singing, Alba gu brath shouting (well for starters I know how to pronounce it properly, lol) nationalist, I don't think I'm even a nationalist at all...I voted yes on political principles and at the beginning of the campaigns genuinely could have gone either way.

On Friday - I was genuinely devastated, I didn't expect to be, I really didn't, but I was.

I mean not all nationalists are fuelled by Braveheart just as not all no voters think it was like a bet and that they just happened to pick the right side which was something someone in RL said on Friday night (I mean I genuinely hope that was a one off as irrespective of which way he voted, that, is terrifying)

But some of the yes people have genuinely been working towards one goal for their whole lives and they range from die hard we are oppressed by the English people to, look I quite like England as a neighbour, but I don't feel British and I want my country to be self-governing.

If I was devastated - I can't imagine how they feel just now, well I can because it's all over my facebook, lol, but I think when the dust settles that will settle down at least while people see what happens next.

"The Scottish Pragmatist Party."

I prefer The monstruous regiment of women, personally

I'll set up the MAGPIE party down here.

Mighty Army Of Good People In England.

MAGPIS doesn't sound quite right for the equivalent in Scotland.

I hope SNP HQ read Mumsnet.

I do feel like there is a gap on our political parties -I want to get involved but there really isn't much about any of the mainstream parties that convinces. Do you just get involved anyway and try to change from within?

YY to monstrous regiments.

The Monstrous Regimental Scottish Pragmatic Party

SC I dunno, I want to get involved but can't' see a party that feels the right fit for me, and I sure as hell don't have the time or energy to devote to changing another party from inside.

SC I am the same. I want to join but none appeal at all. It isn't about politics it all seems to be about jockeying for position. Which is depressing.

Me either Freddie! It's slightly depressing though.