indyref 14 - the one with the polling day

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Come on in, sit down, and chew your nails with us.

Dh overheard someone on his flight back up to Scotland tonight saying that Rupert Murdoch had told Fox News that the postal votes were showing 65% No, 35% Yes, but can't find any confirmation of this except one other person saying the same on another forum. If true thus would make a No vote majority virtually impossible.

This doesn't make any sense, even if that No at the end is a typo.

The postal vote is 20%ish, so thats about 857,000 votes.

Assuming they're all posted back, 65% of that is 557,000 (approx) and 35% is approx 300,000.

Which is only 13% and 7%. All to play for.

It certainly would SC. Or lots of sandwiches and a good few movies.

I should imagine that the rationale is that they're also there to sort out problems including for people who think they ought to be registered or able to vote so you would never know but that for example a remote island polling station might have a disheveled mariner turn up at 21.30 demanding to exercise his rights and so on.

I'm quite excited to see how the voting goes (disclaimer, I'm half welsh half English and I work in London so have no vote).

Agree with Santana, it doesn't add up. I think someone on that flight has been having too much of the bevvy!

I reckon they're trying to test out the jungle drums and see how quickly it gets on the internet

Irn

I agree - it doesn't add up. Where are they getting these figures from. why are the bookies so confident it's going to be a no. Just saw an odds checker on twitter - they're on 73% now for a NO.

If it is all down the 'silent majority' then they've kept themselves bloody quiet?!

Can I just ask about this business of each country affecting the outcome of general elections? I've heard various versions of this stat (from both sides!) and am genuinely confused.

From the post above:

"5 elections when the Scottish electorate prevented the outcome that England had voted for - 1951, 1964, 1974, 2005 and 2010"

Just talking about 2010 now, I get that the massive majority towards Labour in Scotland meant a coalition government in the UK, which nobody voted for, so yes, "the Scottish electorate prevented the outcome that England had voted for" - but checking Wikipedia, the number of seats in Scotland were Lab 41, Lib Dem 11, SNP 6, Con 1 - a massive majority for Labour. No Labour government was returned, so isn't it true that "the English electorate prevented the outcome that Scotland had voted for" as well, and 2010 at least should appear in both columns?

I see some of the posts earlier were conflating being concerned about the economy and currency with being focused on money, business and GDP, as if no voters are more materialistic or something.

I have very lefty ideals and I'm voting No. I'm not a terribly materialistic person (my wee flat is cluttered out of sentimentality for books mainly).

The economy might sound like it's something that only business people and politicians care about. But it underpins everything else. None of the grand contradictory almost promises that the Yes campaign have made can come to pass if they get their sums wrong.

Statistically and other regular posters on this thread have gone through the different currency options and the impact they would have for Scotland's finances. People complain (understandably) about the Coalition's cuts, but the currency options available are going to cause greater cuts.

We believe it is poorer to middle income people that will be badly affected by independence. And middle to higher income people may well follow their jobs if they go south. If the tax take falls then even greater cuts will be required.

I'm not just saying this because I voted yes earlier today, but it really would be hard to believe if Yes were, say, 25% or 30% of the final result when you see how much grassroots campaigning has been going on.

I acknowledge that BT have also done plenty too but I've mainly seen lots of Yes supporters everywhere in recent days.

Correction... I have already voted no.

An international perspective: TVNZ's news website has the headline "Judgement day". And I thought people over here were enjoying hyperbole far too much.

I can't really understand that either IrnBru.

Status - English living in UK.

Just a post to say how enlightening these threads have been and to wish everyone in Scotland all the best.

I confess I would be very sad to see Scotland leave the UK, but hope whatever the outcome that all Scots feel able to pull together and move forward.

to you all

Thank you yellow for you too

Does anyone watch Max Keiser report on RT (sorry!)?

Blanch basically nobody got who they voted for last time! If I remember correctly England and Scotland have both got the government they voted for 12 times in the last 18 (I think, I don't have the energy to look it up!) and the remaining have been a mix of getting what the other want, or getting a coalition

CityIndex's poll is 71% no 29% yes

That would be brilliant. Not only a good outcome, but a good margin with it. A win is a win granted, but I think it will only feel like a win if there's a damn good margin. Fingers crossed.

Nope. What's been said?

He's really had a lot of opinions recently about independence.

Check out his Twitter page and he seems very vocal about it all!

sorry I don't know how to link from Twitter as I don't have an account.

Oddschecker: www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

I must confess I am utterly baffled by odds.

It's currently No: 1/6 and Yes: 4.

I can't either IrnBru. I suspect the rumour isn't true, but if it is it could more likely be down to some demographic differences in the make up of the vote.

Before anyone jumps on me I am NOT saying anything specific about what yes or no voters are like. But I think the polls do tend to show a bit of a split i.e. older people seem to be more likely to vote no. They're also more likely to postal vote. Aren't a lot of the islands looking more No, and also more likely to postal vote due to access to polling stations?

Also people who are working away from home, perhaps out of the country. I'm not saying that everyone who works outside of Scotland would vote no, but they might lean that way.

But Latte - how in hell can that be?

You had the Nos 20 points out in front for months leading up to this, then that majority disappeared literally overnight and the polls showed the yesses ahead - almost 6 points at their highest, and right up until yesterday it was pretty much neck and neck until they had the nos nudging ahead between 2 and 6 points.

But the Bookies are paying out on Nos early and are SUPREMELY confident that their calculations are right. Not only that but the rumours are showing a much larger majority for the Nos than anyone could ever have anticipated ... just doesn't make any sense.

Have those No voters who made up the 20 point lead reappeared? Have they brought their friends with them?

And why would Nicola Sturgeon say last night 'if I win and I genuinely do think we will' ... surely the SNP have got researchers and analysts on their side working on stats. Why say something like that if you know you haven't got a cat in hell's chance?