Indyref 12 - keeping the ball rolling

[flippinada]

Hope everyone doesn't mind, I'm to keep the discussion going. As you were folks :)

I am concerned that for some elements of these campaigns the outcome may be to build upon underlying and possibly old tensions which is I think the case in the part of Scotland where I live. I had thought that these old bitternesses were dying out but I think now that for some they've only been quietly simmering.

That may not be the intent of the parties but I fear that in some instances it could be the outcome of this whole business.

Just to correct one of my posts from the early hours, I think the documentary that had business folk saying the Scottish government was leaning on them to stay quiet on their views of independence was channel 4 dispatches not the BBC. Just saw mention of it on a previous thread.

This media campaign reminds me of the problems science has versus, well voodoo pedlars.

You have a well established and evidence supported view from the majority of scientists put forward.

Then the other side has their say with something far less rigorous but plausible sounding to the uninitiated.

Then the presenter says: there are the two views . now you the public must decide who is right!

I saw a classic of the genre with Ian Wood of Wood Group against a Yes campaigner. It was reality and experience versus one academic report on what oil reserves may be available in the future.(ignoring the fact it would be costly to extract anyway.)

latte - great!

I am not anti SNP per se but I do find them frighteningly similar to the WM folk hate so much in terms of 'big brother' and in terms of ' power hungry' and in terms of 'liars'.

They are ALL politicians - just of different colours.

wild - it's actually potentially worse than your surmise.
I wish I could tell you my story - it would make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up, honestly. I am still trying to get justice through the appropriate channels but the stonewalling is astonishing. This is the type of legislation being used to cover up a complete lack of professional competence.

sorry to derail - but my experience IS part of the legislation by the SNP and is therefore relevant to the people who will run Scotland as an Independent country if Yes wins on Thursday.

mind not a derail, don't apologise. I'm sure we all have personal issues and concerns that will honestly affect the way we vote.

Am not keeping up with these threads, dipping in and out, but just wanted to say sorry to hear about your experience mind - hope you get the right result in the end

Mind blown by reading the rest of the chat thread that I'd missed before. You'd think that people so willing to believe that the British State is the source of all evil might have a few reservations about the popular nationalism in the Scottish government which has been centralising and stomping over civil liberties... but no, presumably as we're Scottish we're above all that

How can they keep peddling this out and out lie?

I think maybe they are between a rock and a hard place.

If it looks like you'll win... run a "Yes, we can" style campaign and then use the "manageing expectations" part of aforementioned campaign just before the election to avoid backlash once the buzz has worn off.

If it looks like you'll lose..l run "Yes, we can" style campaign and stick to your own facts willy nilly, cos they'll never be tested outside the arena of "hypothetical".

If it looks like it could go either way... what are your choices ?

You do the "managing expectations" phases and risk a backlash of having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory if you lose.

or

You stick to "tis what we say it is, Yes, we can" and risk a backlash caused by an oft repeated "fact" crashing hard against a post win reality.

And they went for the latter.

I'm also deeply concerned about an iScotland finding things very difficult financially and deciding to parcel up our natural resources to big business.

If iScotland adopts Sterlingisation what would that mean on a day-to-day basis for the wo/man in the street? Would Scots still use and spend the English pound or just use the Scottish notes? Would the Scottish pound (possibly) be considered to be worth less - should Scots be stockpiling English notes?

Juice

Sterlingisation is Scotland's only real option to be honest - but it's hugely risky.

Sterlingisation is effectively using sterling 'informally' – but it is hard to imagine financial markets smiling on such an arrangement. A lack of formal commitment to a CU could lead to capital flight from Scotland, tightening financial and monetary conditions.

The theory is that the yes camp are relying on the threat to adopt sterlingisation, which would have knock-on effects for the rest of the UK, to force Westminster to give ground. The hope would be that by choosing sterlingisation, the Scottish government could force some degree of cooperation from the UK government, resulting in something that looked more akin to a currency union.

It's a theory, but an awful lot of political capital would have to be swallowed by both sides for such an agreement to come to pass. The process would also be messy, very messy. It relies on the existence of a currency crisis to force a resolution, there would be huge after-shocks and ramifications.

Salmond can threaten it - but if he adopts it, he threatens to bring down not just Scotland but the rest of the UK to a point that it would be virtually impossible to recover from. Not the best way to get your new independent country off to a flying start - destroying not only yourself but your larger and more powerful neighbour with whom you do 70% of your trade. You can see from the Guardian polls that it's not just rUK politicians and economists who are getting mightily pissed off with the Scottish Governement's threats and refusal to address the currency issue. It's the man in the street. Taking Scotland down is one thing. Taking the rest of us down with you is quite another.

(I'm using 'you' referring to in regard to the 'Yes' campaign by the way).

Things in Scotland are getting very surreal. Dennis Skinner talking to ex mining communities was picketed by Yes supporters calling him a Red Tory...

DH expressed concern that all these newly mobilised 'grassroots campaigners' who think that trying to shout down no supporters is a good tactic to convince people of their cause might not know or abide by the rules on polling day.

There was a bit on newsnight last night where yes supporters were making sure that anyone going to a 'No' office had to walk past 20 or so yes campaigners and the libdem mp/msp thought that people would be intimidated. I don't want to have to walk through crowds of Yes supporters to get to polling stations.... that would be voter intimidation, if it happens I'd be complaining to the folk running the polling station.

Seasoned political activists are used to these rules, I hope Yes gets the word out about what is acceptable.

Things in Scotland are getting very surreal. Dennis Skinner talking to ex mining communities was picketed by Yes supporters calling him a Red Tory.

I feel like I'm in a twilight zone

And for once it isn't dye to meds

*due

spirited :( it is getting very scary isn't it. I really, really worry what things will be like in Scotland on Friday morning - either way.

EarthWindFire I meant to say earlier, that I really feel for you. I hope that whatever happens, you keep getting your healthcare (free) and your care at least at the level it is now. It's not 'selfish' to want that for yourself.

To go back to the oil question, here's a really useful article.

It explains the difference between proven, probable and possible reserves - the 24 billion barrels that AS likes to quote is the possible, the more realistic figure is 9 billion barrels of proven and probable reserves. It also points out the considerable amount of investment the North Sea will require to keep operating for even the next 30 years.

And re Sillar's comments about nationalising BP - I think some people still haven't forgiven the way BP took over Britoil in the late 80s.

Dennis Skinner ... A Red Tory

Interesting to hear Bob Geldof speak out about Britain too.
I was surprised. He almost sounded keen on the England?

And George Galloway has increased his credibility during this campaign - who'd have thought that?

The world's gone made, I tell ya! Mad!

I do wonder about voter intimidation on Polling Day too

Thanks stat and font.
If it's a Yes I hope the currency negotiations get started (and finished) quickly - another 18 months of arguing over it could destroy Scotland.
Scary!

Breaking News Leaked Document £400million funding gap in the Scottish NHS

Currency union, sterlingisation or pegged currency are main options and all grim

I've said it before - what a waste of time, effort and money to needlessly negotiate the dismantling of UK when there are so many more important things going on.

Tgank you latte

Marking my place although I'm not going to be online hugely over the next few days - doors to knock, people to talk to etc. last night someone called to canvass me whilst I was out canvassing people - then I got sent a YouGov survey, I almost felt that I had achieved referendum critical mass . Sadly rounded the evening off with another argument with my yes-voting husband. We are now so far apart I think it could be it either way

Interesting conversation with a (very intelligent) colleague, also English, also voting. He seemed convinced that, in the event of a "Yes" it would all settle down and everything would be fine - it would all go back to normal. Others arrived so I couldn't say much more but, really! He said he had "kept away from the internet" to avoid seeing any nastiness. As if, by covering his eyes and not seeing the nastiness, it did not matter (or exist) .

I don't know what way he is voting, and I didn't ask. But, very worried that there are people out there that don't recognise that things will change, very very dramatically.

Even in the event of a "No" I anticipate widespread civil unrest in cities. We have people arriving at a flat we rent out to tourists on Friday, from overseas, into Edinburgh. They are very, very worried about even getting there from the airport. They were thinking of cancelling but DH calmed them.

I am sorry OOAOML.