To believe that it will be a "no" vote in the majority on the 18th?

[Tabby1963]

My reasoning is that, although there appears (from media reports) to be increased enthusiasm for voting "yes" it is not the whole story (they're just shouting the loudest). The noes are the default; and therefore they don't have to say anything or do anything, just vote on the 18th.

My experience having chatted to neighbours, colleagues, friends is that the vast majority (more than 80%) are going to be voting no.

I'm hoping for a no vote, I care hugely about this country and fear the future if "yes" wins. I am certain that if "no" is the majority then I anticipate there will be big changes coming for Scotland, and devolution will continue slowly and carefully.

I totally sympathise with the notion that Scotland does not want the Tories to rule from Westminster and that only by voting for independence will that never happen again, but surely we have to look at the bigger picture here? There is so much at stake to base the future of Scotland and its inhabitants on this single issue?

I also instinctively feel it will be no. I'm thinking 57% no, 43% yes, of those who vote.

I think the vociferousness of some of the yes voters is one of the things that might make people nervous - like if you are a no voter you will no longer be welcome after a yes vote - and I think paradoxically that will increase the no vote. Also, I think people who are wavering are more likely to vote no on the day for reasons of uncertainty and nervousness. These aren't my reasons for voting no particularly, but I think they'll come into play in the final countdown.

It's funny that Clegg, Cameron and Miliband are on their way here to put us all right. I can't believe they are being so daft, or maybe they secretly want Scotland to flounce off and they're coming up to give us the final push. I don't think it will have much effect though, and will be amusing.

thinkin. Yes I agree about Salmond.

And I know that this is way bigger than personalities, bit that smug face and his performance at the recent debates make me despair.

He's an embarrassment

HappyCria, Nazi was short for National Socialism (in German hence the Z). The Nazis' rise to power was similar in some ways, and the SNP stand for something similar to what National Socialism did initially.

That doesn't for a second mean the same thing will happen or that Salmond is the same as Hitler, but I'm always interested when people who know about history bring up those comparisons, and I think it's wise to take note and stay on the ball. I feel the same about Farage and UKIP.

It's not ignorant to point it out.

Space, Hitler's blending of nationalism and socialism had very little to do with ideology. He was trying to appeal to as wide a demographic as possible. He hated socialism. The Communists in Germany were among the first to be sent to the camps.

I'm not nationalist and don't have much time for Salmond but the whole Nazi comparison is so offensive to all involved.

Weasel words Space Station

You start by drawing a direct parallel between The sNP and the nazi party, coyly suggesting Salmond parallels Hitler's rise to power But them contradict your openjng paragraph by then saying you weren't suggesting what you were actually suggesting!

In reality suggesting there is any parallel at all between 1920s Weimar Republic and Scotland in 2014 is utterly idiotic.

It is completely different. So stop insinuating this nonsense.

No, I don't agree. Hitler wasn't the only Nazi - there were others, early on who were very socialist and interested in an ideal utopian, nationalist form of socialism. Some of them saw Hitler as selling out when he became more prominent.

The trouble is Hitler is such a bogeyman (obviously, and understandably of course) that people get hysterical when these comparisons are drawn. It's not offensive. It's a comparison, but people can't cope with that and immediately start flinging accusations that you are calling someone Hitler etc.

Look at what HappyCria actually wrote:

"Someone on dh's Facebook feed has gone on a big long lecturing rant to try and educate everyone on the similarities between hitlers rise to power and the snp's tonight.

Dh finds it funny at his ignorance

( - let's belittle and laugh at the person who sees a historical pattern, and call them ignorant when in fact it's the opposite - they happen to be aware of some history - )

but I'm feeling quite hurt insulted that someone honestly believes that people that want independence are no different to those that supported the nazi party!!

Now, the person on facebook apparently did not say that at all. They were talking about some similarities in the rise to power - in other words, in the early days of the Nazis, when Hitler was gaining power, there were some similarities with the SNP - namely Nationalism, Socialism, and a surge of patriotic feeling.

But that is turned into "people that want independence are no different to those that supported the nazi party!!"

That is a HUGE leap, a false one, and has then been used as a reason to take offence.

The same comparison has been made about UKIP's agenda, and reasonable so. I think it's a good point to make, because it raises the point that nationalism, though not necessarily inherently a bad thing, can turn very unpleasant and get hijacked by some very nasty movements. I don't like or trust nationalism for exactly these reasons.

coyly suggesting Salmond parallels Hitler's rise to power

No, I didn't. I said explicitly that seeing these parallels does not therefore imply Salmond is another Hitler.

Of course "It's completely different"! A lot of people don't seem able to understand that drawing a parallel, making a comparison or seeing a pattern, can be done between two completely different situations. They respond as if you are saying "Panic! It's the exact same situation happening again!"

Whereas as what people who point this out are saying is more like "Beware unchecked nationalism, it can go wrong."

And I didn't bring all this up, I was responding to the mention of someone else doing it below and pointing out that they weren't saying what they were accused of saying, but that they may have a point.

Gah.

Space, can you name any of these socialist Nazis?

Seriously, one of the first things we learned in Higher History was that the Nazis were socialist in name only.

I am Scottish and am voting no. As is my DP and his family. My parents were no voters but are now yes voters. Sadly I think the yes campaign will win.

Gawd, now it looks like I am being nice about selected nazis! In case anyone is unclear, Nazism was a bad thing.

Otto Strasser was one.

One of the things we learned in history what that Nazism began as a socialist and nationalist movement that was quickly taken over by more sinister elements, chiefly anti-semitism, which piggybacked on socialist and nationalist appeal.

I don't know who is right. I am not a professor of Nazism so I will back out of this now and defer to anyone who is.

I just think finding nationalism alarming for historical reasons is perfectly reasonable. That's all!

I'll throw my tuppence in even though I'm neither Scottish or English

1. No matter what your political opinion surely common sense would tell you there are far too many uncertainties to vote yes. There is no going back after all. Yes surely in 5 years time when things are ironed out it might be more visable.

1. If you think Westminster politicians are bad, try living in N Ireland. Politicians in a small state are too coloquial in their approach to achieve anything worthwhile.

1. A simple majority vote cannot be good for any society and the well being of its people. Surely a vote of 70/30 would be better?

1. A divided society does not make for a happy one. Ok here in NI it is sectarian. There is already traces of that in Scotland. Don't underestimate how unrest can develop into more than just the political forums

Well, if it turns out to be a "yes" result we'll have to make the best of it, but I envision some very tough years in the future.

I was chatting to a colleague earlier who said that a "yes" canvasser called at her house yesterday to chat. She explained she was a "no" voter. Later her next door neighbour mentioned that the canvasser had spoken to him too. He's a "yes" voter and the canvasser said he should speak to his neighbour and try to persuade her to vote "yes". Needless to say, he wasn't impressed at this suggestion. Neither was I or my colleague.

OK I am back with an apology.

I genuinely do think it is ok to point out historical comparisons, even where 1930s Germany is concerned, and I think it's ok to find nationalism worrying given its history.

But, I have now researched and seen that there has been some name calling of the snp calling them nazis, comparing salmond directly to hitler etc. I do not think that is fair or ok and I am sorry if I appeared to support that - I don't at all.

Opinion polls never really predict the actual result that accurately unless an absolute landslide is glaringly obvious.

People tend to mouth off about stuff but when it actually counts they are much more conservative about what they do with their vote. "I'm going to vote Monster Raving Loony/BNP/UKIP" tends to end up as "I voted Tory/Labour"

I think it will be a no vote

careerist Fits with something I read/watched once that said the Tory vote is always much higher (in the whole UK, obv, not Scotland! ) than opinion polls suggest because lots of people are 'secret' Tory voters and don't want to say so if asked. I would guess from this thread that the equivalent in this poll will be secret No voters.

I don't think it'll happen, but it'll be close. There'll be too many people waking up next Thursday wondering if they'll still have a job the following year, if they'll be able to pay their mortgage, if the value of their property will fall, if they'll be paying more in tax, what currency they'll be using (ha!)....forget about all the shite about "ruling ourselves" and chat about Westminster being the big bad bogeyman- it's the day to day issues, the money in your pocket and what you can do with it, that will make up the minds of many.

Agree with Atlantic on many of their points. NI is a prime example of how things can go tits up when there are polar opposite viewpoints within a small political system. Deadlock. DevoMax is the way to go.

I hope the answer is No, DD1 may well want to go to a Scottish university and I'm not sure what mess everything will be in if it's Yes.

I think hearts are ruling heads and no one has thought it through very carefully.

I hope it's a No. Already the pound is falling and international investors are withdrawing from the UK - to the tune of some £12bn from the Japanese market alone. And Nomura is advising others to follow its lead.

If Scotland votes Yes, I hope it all works out, I really do. I have a nagging suspicion though that it won't be the land of milk and honey Salmond is promising.

TheCraic and Fyrefly, my DH hasn't found a contract (in his field of expertise) yet to replace the one that ended in May unless he wants to work in London or Iraq, neither of which I am happy with. The oil industry is holding fire with investing in new projects until after the vote. That's the word from agencies he deals with. Thankfully, we have always planned for work being sporadic (although it never has been in the past) and had contingency plans in place.

What about everyone else though ?

Even a No vote will not be the end this; the prospect of a neverendum will knock outsiders' confidence in Scotland.

No poll predicted the SNP landslide in 2011.
There's a new survation poll out tonight which was done the last few days, should be interesting.

I would guess that the "no" vote will win, but I think it might well be very close. I think a lot of people might be voting with their hearts rather than their heads. I haven't really been following the many long threads on this issue so that is just my guess!

I had a letter from Intelligent Finance yesterday who are based in Edinburgh. They are virtually advising me to shut down my account as they have had to move out of the savings market and not doing any more new business. I can leave my little bit of money there and let it jog along until I find somewhere else to put it and I know this is not totally motivated by the referendum but it does focus the mind a little about the implications of having money in Scotland if there is a yes vote.

I think my gut feeling is that it will be a no vote, the closer we get but I do wonder if it is a yes, whether everybody else will be doing the same as me on 19th September and withdrawing my money from Scotland.

I had thought it would be a no vote, but it is obvious that the Westminster Government are panicking that it will be yes. And now seeing their real panic, I think it may be yes.