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AIBU?

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IndyRef 7

999 replies

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 09:33

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oddcommentator · 08/09/2014 19:14

So - look - even the NY times and all sorts of non UK economic opinions are voicing that it doesnt stack up economically. Further, a lot of well reasoned voices here and elsewhere have all said it doesnt stack up. But lets face facts. The vast majority of the yes people are not voting because of this they are voting for non-rational, ideological or vague non distinct reasons (fairness, etc). So we can bang on time and time again - it wont matter. Fingers were in ears and eyes glazed over.

There is a very rational clear economic case for the union and when tested on each and every single point AS and NS have dodged the issue - because it doesnt fit in the narrative. Look at the manifesto, the language is deliberately vague in terms of linguistics it allows the reader to put their own definition on it. Lets take a single word "fair" - the manifest says scotland will be a fairer society. Define fair? You see it is a word chose to resonate emotionally with the reader. Everyone wants a "fair" society. To argue against it is to demonstantly want an unfair society. Of course to demand - how will fairness be measured, and how will it be specifically be improved is naturally "negative" - not believing in Scotland - etc.

You see you put your own definitions on "fair". To someone in Glasgow who wants to work in shipbuilding - it might mean heavily subsidised metal bashing, steel making, shipbuilding, coal mining. To someone who is passionate about renewables, it might mean, getting rid of all that polluting stuff and taxing people to put up windfarms. To the student, it might mean taxing anyone earning over 50k a year 90% and giving it to the poor. To the man running his own business it means letting him pay no tax at all.

The linguistics were chosen very carefully and they refuse to go further and delineate exactly what it means as it will burst the bubble. They havent hoodwinked you, you have done it yourself and really - you should be ashamed at your own gullibility.

Still, moving on - lets imagine yes wins. Now comes negotiations.

Day 1 - a gurning AS ponies up to London - and starts the demands. However, now DC has to only care about how it will play out domestically - as in with the English and Welsh and NI voters. He will be punished severely for giving in to any demands. rUK is has promised to pay the debt anyway, so that card is no use anymore. So what do Scotland have that rUK want? Bearing in mind the industry that will be moving south because of the law. Not a long list - AS has already said the oil is Scotlands in its entirety. What cards does he have? London will have the biggies and you have just told em to fuck off.

How will that play out?

Day 2 - A slightly strained AS ponies up to Brussels. We want in he demands to the club he is realised he is exiting by leaving the UK. Every single head of state will think "how will this play out domestically" Spain - don't want to wind up Catalonia and the Basque. France, Brittany and Western Pyrenees, Italy - have their own domestic agenda. Germany - Merkel will want to know how it plays with the good burghers of Munich. Answer - again - you have nothing, nothing to bargain with. the answer will be - if you want in, get with the Euro - and anyway you have just stropped about your debt which is inconsistent with membership. Special terms? Non.

Day 3. A Nato conference - Scotland - can we be in? Answer. Sure- Leave trident where it is and accept Nuclear weapons on your land. Oh - you promised the electorate the opposite. dont let it slam on the way out.

You see - you will have precious few chips to play with - and AS argues them away to try an get the very thing that will devastate your economy, A currency union with out fiscal and political union.

ultiamtely - the UK has been one of the most successful unions in history. We have defeated fascism, defended the west against russia (and look at crimea to see how it would have played if it wasnt for NATO). We rebuilt Europe with the US after a World War.

Together we have dismantled an empire we built together and tried to build a better Britain and a better commonwealth. But sure- yee hates the tories - so break up a great country. A country that is respected as the mother of democracy - that is loved and respected as much as it is feared or hated.

Why? cos the snake oil salesman promised you what exactly? more freedom - how much more freedom exactly? more fairness - how much exactly.

i weep for this country - i really do. so instead of helping us all build a country for our children you are going to walk away. There will be no going back - you cant try it out. once it is done - its is gone. Over. You wont be British, you wont have much - I'm sorry. I weep for Britain.

LadyCordeliaFlyte · 08/09/2014 19:15

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LadyCordeliaFlyte · 08/09/2014 19:21

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Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 19:22

ffalada before copy-posting things like that you might like to consider whether they are at all applicable.

Oil reserves are not the same everywhere.

The easily accessible oil in the North Sea is rapidly coming to an end. There is more oil still in the ground but it becomes increasingly difficult and therefore expensive to remove. How much can be extracted depends on the market price at the time, which is why the comments about prices dropping is so relevant. Sooner or later North Sea oil will cost more to extract than it is worth - and then will come a bill of many billions of pounds to remove the oilfields and clean up the mess.

There are suggestions of new oilfields to the west, but these are in far more difficult areas to exploit and if there is actually any oil there it may be too expensive to get out.

But instead of considering or discussing these issues it is so much easier to post silly pictures. Which is, sadly, how the Yes camps tend to operate.

Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 19:22

crossed with Cordelia. You type faster than me!

LadyCordeliaFlyte · 08/09/2014 19:24

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WildThong · 08/09/2014 19:25

Oh, I'll vote based on a meme Grin

Interested to know what 'yessers' have been hounded - I've been here from number 1 and haven't noticed that.

There are some cruel and quite nasty posters just appearing though Hmm

Roonerspism · 08/09/2014 19:26

odd excellent post. I wish you could publicise it more widely. You sum up my sentiments but put it far more eloquently.

I weep with you.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 19:28

New TNS Poll

Yes 50% (+8)
No 50% (-8)

TNS has until this poll been one of the most No friendly pollsters.

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weatherall · 08/09/2014 19:28

Gordon brown on BBC news 24 now just said Johann Lamont was the first female leader of Scottish labour. Hmm Wendy Alexander? (Douglas's sister)

ffallada · 08/09/2014 19:28

Indeed, unsurprisingly, I had realised that the oil we have access to (even taking into account the shifting borders that suit the English not the Scottish) is a little different than the Scandinavian oil fields.

Indeed I know many people in the Oil industry in Aberdeen who are voting Yes.

I also see that this thread often has a nasty look to it, so I thought it might make someone smile. It made me smile.

But you are right - this is no time for brevity. Serious faces and hats.

I am still hoping that come the 19th, whichever side wins, that we can get on....although reading the tone on some of these posts I am not sure that will be possible.

Roseformeplease · 08/09/2014 19:28

Excellent post oddcommentator. I am finding myself pretty close to tears much of the time because people in the Yes camp seem to have no idea just how shit this wonderful place is going to be.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 19:29

There's definitely something happening in the polls - that's three shot up now...

IndyRef 7
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TeamScotland · 08/09/2014 19:39

Oil decommissioning will be paid for by the oil companies. They will need a large workforce to achieve it, over many years.

Oil is currently being recovered, or projects to bring fields online ongoing, that 20 years ago was deemed unrecoverable. Google BP's current Clair Ridge project, for example.

As extraction methods and technologies are developed more previously unrecoverable oil can be extracted.

If it's there, the operators will want to get their hands on it.

WildThong · 08/09/2014 19:41

celtic your post...
, I wouldn't take any notice. The whining and breast beating, and the threat of the mass exodus is actually quite funny. It has amused me anyway.
Chin up you might just be popping a champagne cork on 18th. If not, it's not the end by any means

Utterly charming. These are your own people that you enjoy taking the piss out of.

weatherall · 08/09/2014 19:41

No one is going to be 'forced out' by a yes vote!

Stop with the Enoch Powell esque 'repatriations'.

If people want to emigrate from Scotland that is their free choice.

I was made redundant during the crash. I didn't emigrate.

Highly skilled, talented, educated people, as these doomsayers claim they are, have no difficulty in finding alternative employment.

Emigrating is using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I'm looking forward to the job creating powers an independent Scotland will have. Then we can finally do something to rejuvenate the job deserts that were destroyed by thatcher and abandoned by labour.

Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 19:43

Oil decommissioning will be paid for by the oil companies.

But as agreed in their contracts, they will get tax relief for doing it. So little income for the government over the decommissioning period.

The tax losses will be so great that SNP actually wants the UK government to share them!

weatherall · 08/09/2014 19:43

Teamscotland- yes it is quite suspicious how all the Clair field workers were put on gardening leave in the run up to the referendum Hmm

The establishment don't want a good news story in Scotland just now.

CoreyTrevorLahey · 08/09/2014 19:45

Together we have dismantled an empire we built together and tried to build a better Britain and a better commonwealth

Odd, I wrote my doctoral thesis on the legacy of colonialism. The thought that anyone could take pride in the 'empire' and the mess we left behind terrifies me.

Sorry for the derail but if I were on the fence, appeals toward nostalgia for the empire would have me running for Yes.

starwarslegoboy · 08/09/2014 19:46

There is little wonder that No Voters feel alarmed at the fact that their opinion will not count in the referendum. But it is the way most Scots feel at any General Election.

I weep too, I have wept for a long time about the right wing nature of the South of England that dominated British politics. I wept at all the elections since 1983, was hopeful for a small time in 1997 and resigned to the serious imperfection of New Labour but prepared to accept. Since 2010, I have been fighting the inevitable: that Scotland's left wing vote has no bearing in an increasingly right wing South of England. I do feel for the North of England too, of course.

I am probably still a reluctant Yes, but I am now a firm Yes. To quote the song, 'there may be trouble ahead'..... i am under no illusions of a utopia. But I do think that we bolsy, pragmatic, canny Scots can do a better job of it than a bunch of Eton boys who couldn't draw the border on a map and couldn't care less that they cant't

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 19:47

No-one interested in the polls then? Wink

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Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 19:47

So someone trained in shipbuilding should not move to Portsmouth with BAE?

Someone with qualifications and experience in banking should not move to England with Lloyds or RBS?

You SNP types really do want it all ways don't you!

squoosh · 08/09/2014 19:47

Why the wink?

IrnBruTheNoo · 08/09/2014 19:49

DH was at a local Yes meeting last night and there was one chap in the audience who said he was waiting on the Better Together spokesperson showing up too (they were invited so as to given both sides of the independence debate) but they did not show up! He then said to everyone "I was undecided before tonight, but I'll be voting Yes now!!" Huge, massive round of applause from everyone in the hall.

It was later said that Better Together don't do community hall talks unless it's in an affluent area. Shocking. Cheers, gives folk even more ammunition to vote Yes!!

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 19:49

I was just surprised at the lack of wailing and beating of breasts compared to the YouGov poll. Maybe the Nos are just resigned now?

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