'What I can't see is how it can be a successful sea change in politics. Say UKIP do win 50% of the seats, what then? The big three go back to their careerist advisors who tell them to promise a referendum. They do that. The media crucify them. Anything they've said will be used against them if the result is OUT. What then? We go back to the same old system?'
You are right. No one knows and nothing is for certain. But, even though George Bush joked that he wished he was a dictator because it would make things easier, we don't live in a dictatorship. We do live in a democracy, even if as Natalie Bennett rightly said that our 2 and a half party first-past-the post system has broken down.
And they great thing about democracy, is that no one single person is in control. There are competing parties, competing newspapers , competing businesses and competing millionaires and billionaires. These people wil all start to panic about the result of the next election if UKIP cause an earthquake.
At the moment Murdoch is obviously anti UKIP as the Sun and Times attack Farage on expenses and dig out as many fruitcakes as they can find. But if it looks like disaster for Cameron, millionaires and billionaires and the Daily Mail and the voters will start abandoning Cameron and calling for new leadership. MPs will fear that they will lose their seats and in all that turmoil, the establishment will have to throw some bones to the public to keep them quiet and steady the ship. There will be change. What change, we don't know, but change there must be. And it is in that period of change, that we the people win more rights and have our voices heard as the establishment try to win us back on side.
The politicians are only in power by consent, first by us as voters, but crucially also by the consent of billionaires, moguls, newspapers etc and if they all start to panic, then a new set of politicians will have to appear.
Don't worry about UKIP because the public are not voting UKIP because they agree with all of their few stated policies - they are voting UKIP because they disagree with the establishment of Labour and Tory.
The change that happens may not be led by UKIP. I think we will have to be granted a real proportional system and then if you are a Green, you will get your voice heard etc. The public does not expect UKIP to win the General Election, it is using UKIP to tip over the apple cart and force some change.
'I think the future lies in smaller and more local government.'
I think TucosnGirl is right. This is the coming political battle over the coming decades - the people vs the elites and establishments. Localisation vs centralisation. We are seeing it in Scotland now and the anti EU vote is about the same thing. The elite will fight it becaue the Etonians and the chums will lose power over the people. UKIP want referendums for any issue that gets 5% public support. If that happened, then the elite would not be able to push through HS2 or fracking or GM food etc etc because they would be constantly losing referendums.
The battle for democratic representation will have begun. The elite won't like it, but I think they will lose and the rise of UKIP is the first indication of how the people are defying the entire establishment and voting against them all.
UKIP started off as a one-issue movement and when its job has been done, it may even fizzle away, but it will have begun the battle for representation of the people versus the rule by an arrogant, unlistening, condescending, privileged elite who prefer to spend billions on wars than on hospitals.