Measles Outbreak?

[MoaningLisa]

I am sure you have all heard on the news that there has been an outbreak of measles.

Papers, Schools, Hv, Drs are saying if you or your child haven't had the vaccine(s) now would be a good time to get it done.

I cant help but think though that the parents who haven't and wont get their child vaccinated are putting their children at risk.

Aibu to think that its just bloody selfish and very daring to play with their own childs life?

We did until the MMR scare bubbleymummy. You didn't like me putting the figures into decades, but I couldn't make anything of them otherwise as they were up and down. It is like having a hot summer and saying all our summers will be hot in a new pattern and then the next one is wet and cold. You need to take the pattern over at least 10 yrs.
Once I added the figures it was quite clear that it went down amazingly after vaccine
1960s 3700,323
1970s 1424,444
and then by time it took effect
1980s 786,283

So in 1960s there were on average 370,032 cases per year
Down in 1980s to 78,628 cases on average.

Deaths were way down-due to all the things you mentioned I expect but what caused the drop in cases -other than vaccine?

Exotic: an epidemic of measles wouldn't change my mind. What we seem to have at the moment is an epidemic of autistic disorder with no apparent explanation. You talk about forgetting what measles is like. I think there is a collective memory loss about life before this endemic condition. Autism was rare - so rare than estimates ranged at between one in five thousand and one in ten thousand sufferers. That's how rare - that level of inaccuracy. People also have a collective memory loss about how few people had auto-immune disorders and life-threatening anaphylactic reactions. They forget how few children had rheumatoid arthritis. They forget that measles was declining to vanishing point before the vaccine was introduced.

As bubbly says, Vit A supplements reduce morbidity and mortality (FDA, WHO etc). If our health authorities were so desperately keen to reduce complications, everyone would know this. I suppose "we" are not told because it would make it harder to generate hysteria and scaremongering about measles.

No we didn't exotic: having 95 pc of 18 month olds immunised does not equal herd immunity. There is a population outside two year olds, you know.

I think that autism wasn't diagnosed in the past. I know DCs from childhood who must have been on the spectrum-they were not given a name.

We would get that way Gooseberrybushes-if everyone continued.

So you think that for no reason at all health agencies suddenly started diagnosing autism in very, very large numbers with no real increase? Just, for no reason, they just spotted it? Around about the same time tens of thousands of parents started to report regression after MMR vaccine?

You seriously believe that?

In Scotland one in sixty four boys (iirc from memory) were diagnosed not "on the spectrum" but fully autistic, with all the most serious symptoms and signs. One in sixty four. You simply think that such children were "not noticed" before? You think they can pass in a school without anybody noticing?

What do you mean, we would get that way? We are that way.

If you have 95 pc of two year olds immunised, first of all you only have just over 90 immunity, as in 5pc of cases the vaccine is not thought to "take".

Then you have vaccines wearing off, which I don't believe there are accurate figures for but looking at the outbreak problems among vaccinated populations in Europe, are obviously significant. And you have adults who didn't catch measles as a child but were never vaccinated.

There's no way immunity is 95 pc. Even with 95pc uptake it's not 95 pc immunity, then you've got everything else on top. It never has been.

The first case of autism wasn't diagnosed until 1938 and I would expect it took some time to become mainstream. I'm sure that in my rural area as a DC , it wasn't a general diagnosis, or one that people thought about and in many cases still didn't know existed.

You were the one who mentioned that we had a hge population outside 2 yr olds!

Yes - it was shortly after mercury was introduced into vaccines. I think you must live in a state of suspended reality to imagine that one in sixty four boys was always fully autistic and people just didn't notice.

Exotic, I don't think uptake of the MMR has ever been over 95%. I know it hasn't been in NI and its uptake is higher than the rest of the UK.

"You need to take the pattern over at least 10 yrs."

Really? How did you come to that conclusion? Why not 5,6,7? Why take the figures per decade? Why not in 10 year cycles from 1945 for example. It's a bit random. In any case, as I pointed out, it is the fatality figures that are interesting. The deaths from measles had reduced considerably before the vaccine was introduced and they did not decrease any more dramatically with the introduction of the vaccine. They may have continued to decrease anyway, as they had been doing since the 1940s.

Also worth considering that a diagnosis of measles is less likely to be given in a child who has been vaccinated with MMR.

yes exotic what of it?

having a 90 immune population of two year olds does not mean we have a 90 per cent immune population - we never did

given waning immunity and non vaccine uptake among older people that means we don't have herd immunity - we never did

do you see?

Of course they noticed! It didn't have a name until 1938! Of course they had it before 1938. I am trying to say that I knew people who must have been on the spectrum and they were not diagnosed, and no one would have thought of autism. (because they didn't know anything about it)

"Also worth considering that a diagnosis of measles is less likely to be given in a child who has been vaccinated with MMR."

yy

"measles-type illness" anyone

The 2 yrs old will be 90 one day! New batches of 2 yr olds come along every year.If they keep coming you will have herd immunity.
I bet you have smallpox, diptheria, polio, TB etc yourself Gooseberry-most of the population do.

so they had a name for autism between 1938 and 1988 and they didn't use it on tens of thousands of autistic people for fifty years and then they all started using it all at once for no reason? just, because? and it was a total coincidence that it was around the same time thousands of parents began to notice regression after the vaccine?

so what do you think was the trigger for health agencies after fifty years to suddenly start diagnosing autism in epidemic proportions? or do you think, they just all had a moment of eureka proportions? around the same time thousands of parents started noticing regression after the vaccine?

exotic I think you're missing something here

it's called

waning immunity

I also think you're missing the fact that according to your argument, it will take two generations of 100 pc vaccine uptake and no waning immunity to create a population with 95 pc herd immunity.

Exotic, but those 90 year olds won't still be immune from the vaccine. It doesn't provide lifelong immunity.

Still rumbling on. I remember the last thread involving "Gooseberybushes". Forty pages of posts - most of which were me asking for evidence and GBB refusing to supply it (because it doesn't exist).

I see nothing has changed. Still the same old conspiracy nut bags with no evidence and no clue.

Yes you probably spouted the same old rubbish and abuse back then. "No evidence" my foot.

You just didn't choose to look WW - plenty of evidence. Go back and read the thread I just linked to. Except it's much easier to fling about insults than read isn't it.

You can swim about in ignorance if you like but you shouldn't call people "stupid" who choose to read a little further into the subject than NHS online.

Perhaps you'd care to answer a few of the points and questions addressed to exotic?

Oh - hang on - it's just so much quicker and easier to call people stupid, isn't it?

Evidence of what exactly windward? We're discussing the lack of herd immunity in the UK. Do you have figures that show it is in fact above 95% in children and that the adult population will in fact still have immunity from the vaccine when they are 90?

I actually wonder will a rise in measles cases result from the loss of our older naturally immune adults and the increase of the number of adults who were vaccinated and now have waning immunity. There may be some pretty serious outbreaks in the adult population in the future.

So, just to repeat myself: please provide references to the published, peer reviewed documentation that indicates a casual relationship between the MMR vaccine and any of the broad range of neural development disorders.

By the time they have waning immunity the herd instinct will protect them.
Smallpox has been eradicated worldwide in this way.

Since there is no question of changing people's minds (sadly it will take seeing epidemics of measles to do) it I will leave you to it.

I wouldn't go to a third world country without the right innoculations, I would think it too risky. I wouldn't leave my DCs without adequate protection.

It may seem a cop out, but I do have a life and things to do today-I really don't have time to trawl all through figures on autism.( I thought I was slightly mad adding all the cases of measles since 1940!)