Fuck. Russian bomb has hit Poland.

Kinetic? Oh please. We would all have been dead decades ago.

It’s a mutual protection cause, but we don’t have to go along if it’s being cynically used to drag us into something suicidal for everyone.

Some of us did.

I think NATO do. I also think NATO will weigh up where the war is at and decide on the likely outcomes and whether escalation is tactically a wise move for either Ukraine or the West.

This calculation includes looking at Russian imputance at this point.

No one gains by increasing the risk of nukes.

There is a case to be made for Polish Air defence. There is a case to be made for more weapons and support.

Is there a case to be made for NATO soliders to go in, ahead of winter when there are already concerns about domestic unrest due to cost of living rises due to the war. Sending in soliders and having casualties higher than levels seen in Iraq or Afghanistan just won't play out domestically over a single issue like this.

Really is, you would need a lot more dead and a lot more of an obvious threat before you scale up to that, 'because politics'.

There were starting to be calls for talks with Russia. That's now most likely totally off the cards and this incident (if it turns out to be Russia) will only strengthen commitment at a time when Putin was banking on it waivering.

I’m no expert (nuke history is a passion not a profession) but this is more likely to be an accidental bollock drop (by either side) than a deliberate provocation by Russian to force NATO into war. If intelligence is correct in its suggestion, it could feasibly be an anti aircraft missile from either side’s armoury. I suspect it’s Russian, but it could be an UAF missile.

Remember, the Russian Army has been flooded with untrained (and in some cases unarmed) conscripts, with local reports from the Russian troops themselves there are a lot of guys with mental health issues, guys who have been conscripted straight from prison, and the training has been minimal. Likewise Ukrainian troops have been swelled by untrained guys joining up to fight the intruders. Any one of them may have been a little trigger happy leading to an accidental missile incident on Polish soil. We just don’t know.

The best thing to do is not start running to the hills, turn off rolling 24 news & let the folks who know their beans get on with this stuff. The very fact that almost immediately the Russians have gone, “Nope, not one of ours!” leads me to think that yeah, it probably is one of theirs but wasn’t intentional, just a dropped bollock.

Appreciate the info. Thank you

No, we don't. But we do have to uphold it, if Poland decides they invoke it. Such treaties are meaningless if people keep moving the red lines, which is precisely why the US, for example, has very wishy washy ones for nuclear deterrence.

Imagine if this did escalate into full blown Armageddon and you spent your last few days angrily shouting at strangers on the internet. Imagine

😆

It most likely wasn't an attack against Poland.

It's very possible that the missiles were fired by one country, and shot down by the other (countries being Russia and Ukraine) - it was very close to the border and it's very difficult to control where a shot down missile actually lands.

Are you a Russian bot?

The important parts of that, and the parts that Putin knows that we will ignore, will put in bold

if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Some people when they become frightened do tend to pretend that this is nothing to worry about and console themselves, a self soothing mechanism.

How anyone can see this development as anything other than very concerning and an escalation regardless of how it happened is beyond me.

green you are simply gas lighting. Spouting on the thread that anyone that is worried is deluded/inflammatory. I think not.

If Sky News halt their adverts we know we are all done for. Only special times call for that. Including chatting to people in queues ad nauseum.

Am I wearing a furry hat?

This thread does seem to have bots.

Roundmywaythe

Hardly worth posting, someone always going for the jugular at innocent comments online

@CentrifugalBumblePuppy

If intelligence is correct in its suggestion, it could feasibly be an anti aircraft missile from either side’s armoury.

Given the supposed location it's very unlikely, to say the least, to be a SAM launched by the Russian side.

Absolutely this.

Thank you @CentrifugalBumblePuppy and @RedToothBrush always the voices of reasoned argument.

And it’s me with the daughter who won’t leave the house. She is watching bake off at the moment.

And the war is about to get worse. He knew targeting a nato country would kick it off. I’ve never been so scared for my family that live there.

I'm pretty sure that Poland will find their interpretation of the wording to be not quite as they were told.....

Putin could have attacked Poland months ago - he hasn't.

There's no reason why he would do so now when he's facing losses in Ukraine. He's unhinged, clearly, but he isn't likely to want to aggravate NATO at the moment given how many losses he has faced recently.

Sky talks about article 4 which basically means NATO meets to discuss. There will steps before full blown article 5 over something (unfortunately to say) as small as this.

Any one joining me for a glass of red. Not the best day for any of us.

It's not even confirmed that it was Russian missiles at this stage...