Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

Also another good nudge!
I have a check up this week fortunately. I do have an emergency dental repair kit.
I always have a little supply of reading glasses too. I'm fortunate to just need the straightforward ones from the pound shop.
One thing I thought of this morning is to get some extra wild bird food. I have the same gang turn up every morning for breakfast and I don't think I could bear to see their disappointed little birdy faces if I ran out!!!

So glad I had the second part of my root canal done this week. Still need the final stage of changing the temporary filling for a permanent fix but temporary fillings can last years so not the end of the world if it gets delayed (appointment is right before Christmas)

I bought a camping stove from lidl a couple of months ago when it was reduced to a tenner but just realised I don't have any gas for it and not sure what is the right kind as I saw 3 different sizes of gas canisters in the shop.

We do have one of those calor gas heaters in the garage that we never used, presumably we still have the gas for it but I better check.

Yep, very bad. Carbon monoxide which is colourless and odourless, so you won't know until it's too late. I expect quite a few people will get that spectacularly wrong at some point, which is very sad. My camping stove does come with warnings about it and that it's to be used outside only - but I'm a compulsive leaflet reader! There are some stoves that can be used indoors but even those I believe should be done with a window open and a CO monitor to hand.

@WaffleMacGubbins That's fascinating research. My natural instinct would be to conserve water if I didn't know how long I might be without it, so would try to keep to drinking/cooking use only and washing would be kept to a bare minimum, certainly at the outset.

@DrBlackbird I know right? We've no 'inner room' either. I recall getting quite stressed about that at one point! It's just not realistic to exist that way. Let's hope none of us ever have to face that.

What I have noticed are the "I will not be scared into submission" ones who clearly think that the government is useless, and yet will presumably expect them to step in and sort things out should difficulties arise. I think it's far more sensible to be pragmatic about these things.

"Seeing life in shapes and colours" made me laugh, but I agree with you.

I have two crows that pick on my window if I don’t feed them on time twice a day. Their parents sort of left them in my garden when they were babies years ago and they just stayed. Cheese is their favourite. They are becoming quite expensive to feed, but I don’t dare stop now. They have recently learnt to throw pinecones on the window next to the sofa where I usually sit, if I’m not there. God knows what they will learn next.

They do give me presents though, which is always nice I guess.

We've been prepared since the mid-90s when we lived in an active earthquake zone. It becomes a habit, I suppose. DH's brother and his family are at the other end of the scale and found out that a couple of years ago when the power went off over a wide area where they live. It was November and cold so BiL brought the gas bbq indoors and lit it to try and warm the place up, but it hadn't been cleaned since the last use and filled the kitchen with smoke. He then found out that, by some miracle, a local chippy was open so went there but the queue was 2 hours long so he came home half frozen. It that situation, we'd have lit the fire (which is also a back boiler and heats water) in the living room and used a camping stove, with the kitchen window open obviously.

@Natsku I bought a camping stove from lidl a couple of months ago when it was reduced to a tenner but just realised I don't have any gas for it and not sure what is the right kind as I saw 3 different sizes of gas canisters in the shop.

What brand of stove is it? We can help figure out which canisters will be compatible with it.

oh in my 20s we had tubed cheese

I mean I can understand that people feel a bit disillusioned with our government, but when the Scandi countries, the Netherlands, the French, Germany, are all running similar campaigns, I think its stupidity disguised as optimism to ignore the signs.

I really hope we don't end up in conflict because if getting in some tins of beans is too much of an imposition then we are bit screwed really.

One thing to consider is that people used small tea cups, not the half pint buckets I drink tea out of 5 times a day.

I am preparing but still, it is hard for me to conceive of needing to prepare for open conflict between the UK and any other country.

For example, why would Russia attack any other country. Why would it when they’re struggling with Ukraine? Surely they haven’t forgotten the dangers of too many fronts.

It’s more likely that we suffer a Fancy Bears cyber attack and yes, hopefully that’d last just a few days. Anyhow, a spare pair of glasses is a good idea. That’s a good shout.

Just been to Sainsbury’s for a few normal bits and whilst there wasn’t the normal full shelves, there was still plenty of tins etc, including water and toilet rolls.
I’m swinging between being pleased that people aren’t panic buying, and thinking bloody fools.

why would Russia attack any other country. Why would it when they’re struggling with Ukraine?

It could be a tiny country like Estonia which would be relatively easier - the population of Estonia is 1.4m vs 40m in Ukraine. The risk will be substantially higher if Putin finally takes Ukraine with Trump's support and has access to all of Ukraine's natural resources

I don't think anything is likely to happen imminently, only due to storms and I think if people are in an area which is usually affected they prepare every year anyway.

Wes Streeting has said 2030, could be sooner or could be later so I think the Government are just trying to get people to build up a supply gradually rather than rushing out and clearing shelves. I also don't think it will be open conflict for us, we are lucky that we have the Channel between us and the rest of Europe.

Please be aware that whilst filling the bath is sensible, it won't be good for drinking, due to the bath oils, soap residues and cleaning agents that remain.
Water for hygiene is still important, as disease spreads quickly with no sanitation (to say nothing of the human waste issue if the all the sewerage pumping stations go down)
You can buy a large bath sized bladder to fill the bath with drinkable water. It is called a Water Bob.

I was thinking electric wise. It’s very unlikely that we will all be sat without power for days. Unless something happens to a plant/s it would just be lack of enough power which would be more like rolling blackouts so everyone has some power at certain parts of the day.

So you’d just have to adapt your washing/cooking/heating times.

Also the 2p in a cup trick in that case. Freeze a cup of water in a clear cup preferably. If you know the powers about to go place a 2p on top of the water in that cup. Don’t open during the power cut. Once you reopen when the power is restored you can see how much defrost you had via how far down the 2p has moved in the cup.

Water Bob in not shipping internationally as far as I can see.
There are other bladders avaliable but they have all ( of course!) gone up in price

I bought most of the non-food items in 2023 - I realised that since Russia failed to win in Ukraine for a year and Ukraine was supported by the US, the war is likely to last way longer and affect us at some point.

I remember when I told friends at work that they should have a radio, water, a week's worth of tinned food etc in case of emergencies and be able to survive without electricity for a few days, they just looked at me funny. I even said that foreign hackers could attack power grid and it actually happened in the UK two months ago when Iranian hackers disabled a power plant for a few days. With all of the government messages they must think I'm Cassandra now.

I have a huge box of items like radio, batteries, walkie talkies, led lanterns, charged powerbanks, torches, candles, matches, emergency blankets, sleeping bags, 80 litre backpack, first aid kit, dettol wipes, sinle use bowls and cutlery (I'm sure I've missed something). I have lots of water and toilet paper in the loft. I've been rotating tinned food for the past 2 years.

I thought I'd buy something new with all of the government advice and I impulse-splurged on a Geiger counter 🤦🏼‍♀️ In the unlikely event of nukes hitting London landmarks I shouldn't be in the range of the blast, but will be in the range of the fallout. Radioactive dust should settle after a few days but it would be good to know that it's safe to go outside. I really hope we won't get to this point though and it's going to be just a cool gadget

A Lidl brand, I guess Crivit as that's their brand for outdoorsy stuff

I wasn’t really that worried until I read this thread but on the back of it, I will start stocking up on water, tinned food etc

I will also look into a small camping stove. DH has some spare cash and a shotgun (if needs be 😏)!

If there's time to give the bath a clean with fairy liquid first, wouldn't it then be as clean as any of your kitchen pots and pans? Then you could decant from it with a clean jug to be used for drinking or cleaning.
The bath would need covering though - clingfilm, tinfoil???

Sticking my head in if that’s ok? I’ve been thinking about this after 2 conversations a couple of months back from people I felt I would be unwise to ignore.We don’t have many power banks but am keeping them and the car charged.

Gradually building drinking water stash. Camping stove could do with a few more canisters and found the wind up radio which is now tuned up a station and does work. We have water purifying tablets , an underground water tank thanks to the Victorian’s and 3 butts so far but would like an IBC or 2. That’s all as much for the garden as much as anything which I’m really grateful to have and I will be growing more veg at home next year where possible, think flower only beds may be a bit of a luxury currently. Starting to build cash reserve but need smaller notes.

Also lucky enough to have an allotment but there has been theft going on so will squeeze new plum tree in at home somewhere instead. Am involved in a community project and we are looking to be as self sufficient and off grid as possible with a view to be a community hub if the shit hits the fan. We lost internet the other day and have realised most of our books are now gone so will go to charity shop and get some plus review board games.

Just ordered some paper plates etc
I'll charge up the powerbanks.
I'll restock pain meds and cold meds this week
I might also grab a few things like honey etc

If we get to the point of needing a geiger counter I'm done and wouldn't want to be here

Maybe you could post a picture of it and also of what the gas connector looks like