Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

We all remember the whole emergency broadcast you must stay at home government comms from covid, so a few ordinary news stories about a government initiative might not seem that urgent compared to that, and might not provoke rushed prepping.

I'm going to guess there will be a fair few people buying extra things, but no panic buying as such, unless or until it starts to feel more like a fast-moving situation for some reason (some other coincidental news story perhaps).

Even in normal times (in Scotland), my dad had his vegetables nicked.

A relative in the Balkans had his fruit and vegetable plot stripped in a time of crisis.

We had a powercut this morning.
Only a couple of hours and we were all good.
Our mobiles didn't work in any way shape or form...tbh I wasn't expecting that they would.
I think that is what I would find most difficult in a longer situation....not being able to contact people.

DM lives about 10 mins away, I'm trying to get her to prep things without scaring her, but she still thinks she has a landline and that ATMs would work....

I told her that anything lasting longer than 24 hours we will go and get her.

One of my plot holders actually had their chickens stolen a few months back.

Definitely not as fox as they boxed up the eggs as well but then left them half way down site in a wheelbarrow.

Cabbage is often stolen as well as carrots.

I didn't realise - though I've used chlorine tablets.

Just back from Aldi, they've had a delivery of 5l water, and it does appear like people have been buying bottles of water. In the middle aisle they have usb desk lamps. Has a wireless phone charger as well, I think my phone is too old to do that but for £7.99 I picked one up and it's now on charge.

Have you watched The Last House on Netflix? We will have to live like that. 🍅

we have just had a brief power cut
put my wind up torch/radio on the windowsill to charge

I haven't. Shall have to have a look.

Just checking in, and thank you to @RedToothBrush for such an informed and considered thread to help us make sense of things.

I've just gone through the cupboards and thrown out lots of food from 21 and 22. It did occur to me I would maybe keep it as decoy food in case of looters.
But this is going to be the case for everyone. Most of us will be throwing food out in 2028 having not needed it and not managed to rotate it because we've lived on fresh stuff in preference.
The only time I'd use ours is a spontaneous hiking/camping trip.

One thing everyone could do is sprout seeds. You can buy seeds for sprouting fairly inexpensively. After that you just need a jar. If fresh veg can't be obtained, they're a good source of nutrients.

Another thing I've done is picked and dried enough nettle and wild garlic to live in large kilner jars beside the cooker hob. Any time I make a soup (even heating up a tin), omelette etc. I can chuck some in like one might any other herb to add a bit of extra goodness. Nettles are amazing.

I also have rosemary, thyme, sage and oregano in pots outside. They're really hardy so I've had the same plants for years (I am not a gardener). Thyme has been shown to kill strep bacteria, so I make thyme tea if I get a sore throat.

You need to rotate stock so you eat oldest first, especially for "use by" dates. If it's a "best before" date it should still be safe to eat but it might not taste good, and 2021-22 is a long time ago! If you are buying stuff to store that you wouldn't normally eat, then yes it will probably get wasted however old it is.

I don't store food I don't eat. I don't have the space for a start. A lot of my tins and jars are ingredients, with ready made for days when we are too busy, or can't be arsed to cook, or when we all had flu. Very little food gets binned, even random fridge veg gets made into soup or curry, otherwise composted.

My cupboard has red and green pesto, jar sauces, jar currys, canned fish, canned tomato, canned and dried beans/lentils/chickpeas, coconut milk, rice pudding, custard, oat/soya milk, polenta, various pasta, noodles, couscous, rice, raisins, nuts, cereals, popping corn, pudding rice, jam, marmalade, syrup, oatcakes, Nutella, peanut butter, flour, sugar yeast etc. All of this is long life, and I check when I buy for the longest dates.

Dried camping food is for proper expeditions where everything is in a backpack and min weight and max calories are the only consideration, because they mostly taste like shit. Even when we did camping up mountains we lived on biscuits, peanut butter, Nutella, trailmix, bacon buttys and hotdogs. Now, like most campers, we are never that far from a car, and just freeze meals and keep in a cold box, or BBQ.

No fray bentos pies required, though DH would eat them 😂

I agree. Fear is a negative emotion. Do what you can with the means you have available. We’re not all able to afford to do what some are doing, but a bit extra food, knowing where the torches etc are is a good start.

Dried camping food is for proper expeditions where everything is in a backpack and min weight and max calories are the only consideration, because they mostly taste like shit. Even when we did camping up mountains we lived on biscuits, peanut butter, Nutella, trailmix, bacon buttys and hotdogs. Now, like most campers, we are never that far from a car, and just freeze meals and keep in a cold box, or BBQ.

I'm going away for a trip next year where I won't see a shop for a week. So I have a week's worth of dried camping food for breakfast, lunch and dinner. I tend to keep a few days worth of hiking food in for spontaneous trips.
The biggest problem is not the taste but they are pricey.
Actually there's one brand id really recommend but they've stopped making individual meal pouches in favour of great big prepper tins.

Sainsburys near me is well stocked. I've been picking up items in small amounts, like two tins at a time, but without much organisation.

Got home and my teens used their INSET day to tidy and clean the pantry out. Wonders will never cease. Its so organised!!

I’ve done what I can and we have a stock together. Sink or swim.

But shall I ‘fess up my biggest worry? Not being able to have hot running water to shower twice a day. They’re not long jobs, but I’d sure miss them.

I went to stock up on some warm clothes and canned food earlier in B&M and when we were queuing, they announced that they were only accepting cash as their card machines had gone down. They soon came up again so panic averted, but I'm starting to feel a bit nervous.
Tesco and the petrol station were just as busy as usual, maybe a bit quieter.

The only extra food I have bought is food we eat multiple times week anyway. Random time in my cupboard will go go out date, like coconut milk tucked away at the back. But none of my prep will.

Other things that go out of date are painkillers that go into my handbag and get forgotten, but I wrote the dates on the last night. Things like porridge I will eat 6 months past best before but if definitely tastes stale now. This is why I dont buy much soup or any tinned meat as we never eat them. Some tins of tomato soup would be used up, but not say 10 tins.

I made a lot of mistakes with my prepping back at the time of Brexit, storing foods I'd really never eat, thinking I might in an emergency. Of course didn't end up eating them. Now I only stock foods I do use and like. In fact I have to restrain myself from eating too much from the stash, apart from what's necessary to keep things in date and rotating. It's taken awhile to get to that point though.

I like the idea of 'decoy food' - might use that trick if need be!

Popped to get cash today and added a couple of extra tins and long life milk. It's a start. Big Sainsburys by me was not busy and shelves were stocked as normal.

Same. Shelves stocked. The only item nearly gone was… water. Just one or two left.

Same here. I sent my husband for 2 bottles for in the campervan. Eventually he'll realise he's buying two far more regularly than they're being used, but at least that way I can pretend I'm not stockpiling 10 bottles.
Anyway, there weren't any so, but he had no problem buying steaks, broccoli and blue cheese and was skin back so it can't have been busy.

Don't slay me but I went to M&S to start stocking up thinking Tesco would be grim. Was worth it:
Tomato/chicken/mushroom soup 60p a tin.
Shreddies equiv £1.80 (1 year shelf life, same for Weetabix equivalent).
Baked beans also good price
Antibacterial wipes - big pack £2

Little and often I reckon.

Water-wise...anyone recommend large containers you can fill from the tap?