Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

BREAKING: Spain.

Snap election to take place on 29 November.

Oooh. Will need to bone up on what the political situation there is.

In weather news, Spain and Italy look set for more drenching rain and potential flooding this week.

Do you know where in Italy they predict that much rain..?

Could be anywhere, check this forecast video, the jet stream is moving lower and water temperatures are above average so a lot of moisture around.

@RedToothBrush Housing crisis, immigration, right wing stuff, Sanchez has a minority govt. Yep I see what's going on in Spain. Will be interesting to see which way people vote.

Ok I had a look at the forecast yesterday as one of my children is going there later this week, but couldn’t see anything then. Will look again. Typical!

They had massive protests over the weekend across Spain about rent increases. I'm not sure it's a big surprise. There was a camp out in Barcelona despite a red warning which looked very wet indeed.

Another video that went viral was a bloke complaining that he was trapped in an underground carpark for an hour and a half after the warning went off. Having been in that same carpark in the past in heavy rain, there's no fucking way I'd have been parking there with the weather forecast. I wouldnt have waited for a warning to tell me to get out. It scared the bejezus out of me enough!

Its a reminder of how a lot of people will do stupid shit in a situation like this, even though they've been told it's probably not a good idea for their own well being and not because the government is trying to ruin their day or control them.

Large parts of the city have flooded. The underground was badly affected. It looks very wet.

I meant Milano.

Steve Lookner has been in Barcelona and was broadcasting Agenda Free TV from there during the bad weather, he apologised for the sound of rain! I think he's still there.

On books - I have also started to print out and make notes of useful things and I only get books digitally now if I wouldn't be too upset at losing access to them.

Digital stuff is too easily lost, removed or changed.

Meteoalarm is a great website for European travellers. It aggregates weather warnings from national forecasters in any easy to read map form

www.meteoalarm.org/en/live/

That is great, thanks!

Re US planes

Visually confirmed by me and the dog;
The first lot of B1s flew over the West country at 11 am ish. Lower than usual and in a formation of 3 (very bloody loud).
The Stratotankers were about half and hour ahead of them.

The last flew over at about 3 pm but I only got a visual on one. There was another group between these, a bit hazy and no good line of sight but probably more than one. I did wonder if this was going to be the mother of all bombing runs.

My hobby for the last 6 months may have been US plane spotting. For the first couple of weeks of the war the planes were on flightradar24. I've got really good at identification by sight and sound.

When Russia and Ukraine kicked off I couldn’t get my usual Sure anti-perspirant for several months, didn’t join the dots, but later found out it had been manufactured in Russia. Production was then moved to Italy and eventually it was back on the shelves.

This last week or so I’ve been stocking up on decaf, reason being INEOS have moth balled three chemical plants in Hull due to unsustainable energy costs. One of the things they produce is used in the manufacture of decaffeinated products. It’s not life-changing if I can’t buy my favourite coffee or teabags, just as it wasn’t when I couldn’t get Sure,but it’s something I can buy now while they’re still readily available and at a stable price.

One of the things I remember from Covid threads was people who had relatives eg with autism who were worrying that their usual brands might be unavailable. I think we’re so used to being able to buy what we want at any given time it’s a nuisance when confronted with an empty space on the shelf.

I totally get that, I need to be gluten free and have various favourite brands so am doing similarly.

Thanks for the heads up we are a Decaff household.

I am so impressed that people know these things!!! @WhichDoorIsOutare you in this industry or how did you gain this niche knowledge?

Greg Bagwell AT GregBagwell
The Pentagon spokesperson has achieved the headlines they wanted, rather than the more significant one of a wider US withdrawal of most strategic assets deployed for the Iran War. A surprising number of commentators have fallen for the same line though which hasn’t helped

There are a few clues that this is not what it seems.
- The USAF statement is far more measured in talking about a routine redeployment.
- The status of RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath (two major US bases in the UK with significant permanent air wings) remains unchanged.
- There are significant reports of a much wider withdrawal across the Middle East and beyond for strategic assets that were deployed for Iran operations. This includes Carrier groups and strategic bombers. The UK withdrawal is not a lone case

So why the security angle for the Fairford withdrawal? Well, it does three things:
- Backs up the previous (unfounded) claims made by President Trump about the local arrests.
- Masks the wider withdrawal and failure to achieve any War aims.
- Heaps pressure on a Government that is less sympathetic to MAGA objectives. Pick any one of those 3, or perhaps all of them to get a bit closer to the truth than Fairford is about to be overrun by terrorists.

B1 bombers are expensive and I doubt whether they want to ramp up the production line again or get any of the mothballed ones out of service. Like most aircraft they are vunerable on the ground and people can do a lot of damage to aircraft with small amounts of explosive (see the damage that was done to to the Russian ones by Ukraine with deployed drones for example).

From the US bases they can fly pretty much anywhere in the world with mid air refuelling, so it doesn't make much sense for them to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars of assets in the UK if they feel that the security is better in the US and they don't need to maintain high cadence bombing missions.

Plus of course there is the propaganda coup of someone managing to damage them.

So basically, if they don't actually need to be there, probably best not to have them there.

Yep to this.

I used to be in retail so have a little understanding of how the just-in-time system works. If anyone wants a basic idea just let me know, don’t want to waffle on and bore the thread to death.

Re the decaf, so on the news a fortnight ago they mentioned Jim Ratcliffe owner of INEOS was grumbling about costs in manufacturing. The next day it was announced he was mothballing these three chemical plants in Hull and the reporter said the plants produce XY and Z, but they said it so fast and I wasn’t paying full attention. I didn’t hear what else they produce but caught the bit where they mentioned a chemical for decaffeinated products.

I don’t know if my favoured brand uses INEOS chemicals for their teabags but they’re on offer at the moment anyway so it won’t do me any harm to buy a couple of extra boxes. Even if my brand isn’t affected it doesn’t mean there won’t be supply issues with other brands and then it has a knock-on effect because people will just buy what they can get hold of.

Ineos Hull - Operates as Europe's sole industrial-scale producer of key acetyls materials, including acetic acid, acetic anhydride, and ethyl acetate.

Acetic acid
Acetic acid is one of the most versatile, organic chemicals manufactured today. It’s used in the production of food preservatives, and to make goods such as ink, pharmaceuticals, household cleaning products, textiles, paints, packaging and many more items.

Acetic anhydride
Acetic anhydride is used in everyday products, including detergents, aspirin and paracetamol, wood acetylated products and plastics.

Ethyl acetate
Ethyl Acetate (EtAc) is also used in in everyday items, such as decaffeination, printing inks, pharmaceuticals, paints, adhesives and nail varnish remover.

Quick stockpile nail varnish remover!

Shortages of household paint will send the Property and DIY and Home Decoration boards into a spin!
I like posting on them and reading them for light relief.
Please tell me which curtains I should put up in this south facing room painted in Farrow and Ball's Bollock Pink, should it be the purple ones or the green ones? I don't want to make an expensive mistake I've been disappointed by curtains before and never got over it! 😭

The threat of anything bad (weather or war or aliens) means we should concentrate on the self-sufficiency for our country. That means we should have good water supply and good sewerage systems, plenty of active farms and energy that's not dependent on things arriving by boat or cable.

Farrow and Ball Bollock Pink!!! 😂

Is that bright pink, or pink with a touch of purple?

I have a friend who is a farrow and ball snob. We rinse her about it every so often.

I shall be stealing this.