Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

What does all this mean do you think?

Good questions, and a preliminary question to Google's AI said streptomycin is the gold standard treatment against pneumonic plague but (worryingly!) is currently in short supply or limited in availability! So... yeah that's not a great start to the enquiry. Gentamycin can also be used. Also, for pneumonic plague, the most serious form, IV antibiotics are required within 24 hrs of symptom onset, so the clock is really ticking.

If you start from one case (and it is highly contagious) I guess the strategy would be 'ring fencing' the area and keeping everyone out whilst treating people inside the infected zone. Anyone having contact with someone with plague would need to start taking prophylactic antibiotics for a week - doxycyline or ciprofloxacin orally.

So the UK does have specific antibiotic stocks for this purpose -

Plague is classified as a Category A (Tier 1) high-consequence biological threat. The UK government maintains centralized stockpiles of specific medical countermeasures managed by the Ministry of Defence and the Department of Health: 1, 2, 3]

• Antibiotic Stockpiles: The UK clinical guidelines for deliberate bacterial releases mandate the rapid deployment of Ciprofloxacin or Doxycycline. These are stockpiled to be used both as immediate treatment for infected patients and as post-exposure prophylaxis (preventative treatment) for first responders and exposed populations.
• Pre-emptive Diagnosis: Doctors are legally mandated to report any suspected case of plague to the UKHSA immediately by phone within 24 hours, without waiting for laboratory confirmation, to stop human-to-human transmission of pneumonic plague early

Hopefully this scenario would be better prepared for than Covid!

Well I'd say that UK / US relations and NATO willingness are currently lower than are being stated publicly. This is a reaction to giving bail.

NYT is reporting

"The need to move the bombers out of the base, R.A.F. Fairford, was deemed so urgent that some of the planes and their flight crews left while aerial refueling aircraft were still being scrambled to support their flights to the United States."

The US thinks the security at the airbase is that bad and that the UK isn't a safe place. Apparently there's intelligence suggesting an ongoing risk to the base according to the article.

I should add that the Green party motion that passed probably hasn't helped US-UK relations. The US policy on criticism on Israel is harsher than you might think (lots of ICE / defunding threats within this). The bombers removal is significant as a gesture.

Also with that in mind consider this point:
Oz Katerji AT Oz Katerji
As Far-Right Flávio Bolsonaro is on course to win round 1 of Brazil’s presidential elex, it’s worth reminding everyone that Zack Polanski’s argument for leaving NATO was that the US was an unreliable ally under Trump & that we should build a security alliance with Brazil instead

The current President Lula is a left wing socialist

The Trump narrative that the UK is lost to Islam and that the US should abandon Europe and NATO is definitely getting fed by all this.

One further point and implications Re: The Green Party Conference vote.

As it stands the UK polling suggests that it will be a hung parliament.

Reform and the Conservatives together lack enough seats to form a coalition government.

Labour would possibly be able to do it with help from the LDs, SNP or the Greens.

The last projection I saw was Labour 246, Lib Dem 73 and SNP 40 and Greens 7.

A majority is 326. Labour+LD = 319.

The anti-Zionism motion creates a massive problem any potential coalition featuring the Greens. I think that idea is pretty dead in the water. Especially if there's any serious desire to keep the US on side (and this includes if the Democrats somehow regain the White House and manage to oust Trump from squatting there at the end of his term). The US remains heavily pro-Israel regardless of which party is in power.

Burnham was also talking about a policy of electoral reform. The fall out from this vote means I suspect now that Burnham will struggle to have any chance of passing legislation to do this. I can't see him getting the support from his own party for it. I expect his proposal will now get quietly dropped.

Many seats on this projection have a 5% margin of error too. It's that close.

My point here being there's significant implications for UK politics that just happened and it raises more questions about the ability of anyone to form the next government at this point. It also reduces the possibility of a left wing coalition and perhaps tilts the possibility back towards a right wing coalition.

I would say the possibility of having a situation where we have to have a re-election and months of political paralysis just went up massively. It's just one possibility but the point is there's been a political earthquake.

It marks a significant crisis for Polanski, especially if he fails to win the By-election. His leadership may come under pressure. He looks weak to many in terms of how cowardly he's been and how he was absent at a crucial junction for the party.

More widely given the trend in British politics for the rise of Muslim independents, this might mark a shift to the Greens being the home to a growing Muslim sectarian vote which isn't good for anyone (religious sectarian always is bad for any country regardless of religion) and away from anything Green at all (the conference also passed a motion supporting nuclear power for the first time. This isn't bad in itself - I think we should consider nuclear power - but it marks a significant shift in the Green Party which initially formed out of opposition to nuclear power. It will drive out support of a small number of long term environmentalists within the party). All of which could herald more shifts in British politics.

Obviously there's a very long way to go before the next election and a huge amount could happen in that time, but the implications of that vote by the Greens I would argue is much more far ranging than perhaps many realise right now. It will likely help to drive increasing polarisation in politics as the far right can legitimately point at the Greens as hating Jews to the point that it can call them Nazis like...

Throw in some economic hardship too and the far right and the anti-Muslim vote might well get a big boost and be able to point to the Greens being a religious sectarian party.

There's much to digest here all round.

There is a lot that doesnt add up about that whole drama and the Americans are probably aware of a lot more than what has been made public. This country is compromised, fears have been stated by counter terrorism for years as to monitoring being way below what is required but to what that translates to in terms of real threat is anyones guess. Yet will be people who do know exactly what that translates to and those people wont necessarily just be in Britain. The US would not have taken an action like that lightly.

Another angle

Greg Bagwell AT GregBagwell
The official line is that this is down to security concerns after last week’s arrests near the airfield. In truth, these have been inactive for a while and with hostilities unlikely to restart before the mid-terms, a return to the US will allow recuperation and rest.

So there's could be a political message here too which ties with there being no need for the bombers to be in the UK at present as there's no plans for more military action in Iran.

Tim Hack AT realTimHack
Should Bolsonaro win in Brazil they will kick out Brazil from the BRICS and redirect the Brazilian oil towards the US away from China. It would be a massive blow for the Chinese economy and would make it possible for the US to march into Iran. It would mark the next step towards WW3 because the US could then feed its military without the Middle East being in production.

Cheap oil for the US. More ability to have a US export ban on diesel.

I disagree with the point about the US being able to match into Iran though.

Im a little confused by this thread. What is everyone prepping for? The country relies heavily on imports due to decades of next to zero investment in manufacturing and producing essential supplies here, its cheaper and lazier to just import, but supply lines are only as robust as the conditions allow, climate, geopolitics, fuel, raw materials are just some some factors that a drop in any can cause chaos.

This country has likewise continued to invest minimally on upgrading any of its essential infrastructure to meet demands of an exponentially increasing population.

So what exactly are you prepping for? How long of emergency conditions are you prepping for?

By the way I prepd for a long time, I wanted mumsnetters on here to prep at the very start of covid before covid was even being mentioned on the news here and my threads were deleted.

So its interesting to see this thread, but Im also confused by many of the replies because honestly if you are prepping for anything longer than a shutdown of supplies for two weeks max, not like lockdown but a total hit to supply or an actually enforced lockdown, you need to think hard about home defence and not just what you’re storing there.

If you’re in the cities forget it you need to be thinking from day one.

Ive always found it interesting that despite the stereotypical disconnect in urban communities from one another, its interesting how observant urban neighbours are, now add to that how tribalism possibly along ethnic and/or religious lines would very quickly form as can be documented in many areas of the world that experienced collapse (Libya, Iraq, Syria, CAR…), and who will be targeted in a desperate situation and you can see how quickly things can breakdown in an urban environment during an uncontrolled regional or national emergency situation that people start to perceive is not being resolved or even worse, cant be resolved.

@Crissy81 I'm prepping for temporary disruptions due to powercuts, bad weather, and that kind of thing. In my country everyone is supposed to be able to take care of themselves for 72 hours if some kind of crisis happens, if the crisis continues after that the government is supposed to have got logistics in place to help the population with the emergency stockpile.

I don't have water sorted yet, but I live down the road from a natural spring and have a large water container but need more. Need gas for the camping stove too. Have at least a few days supply of wood in the garage and our boiler is dual fuel so can heat with wood as well as with oil. And I convinced OH to order oil last week, he was putting it off because of the price but I mentioned the risk of it not being available at all if supplies run too low (not that he believed me, he's gone down a 'the media is always lying' conspiracy phase, but he doesn't want me panicking so he ordered anyway)

No I think that’s a leap. But the diesel and oil is pretty much what the US is aiming for. Eg Venezuela included.

On this Times radio mentioned a US view, major newspaper, on an article that mentioned a risk to life for service people on the base.

They said the decision was operational not political.

So when are all the soldiers and their families shipping back to the States then?

They didn’t cover that.

I think intermittent disruption and big hikes in prices may be the most likely scenario possible with shortages on the shelves as much as a possible temporary outage. But it's certainly not the only possibility.

In terms of a longer disruption that's probably something you can't easily prepare for even with home defence.

I can see civil unrest where leaving your house to go to the shops in a centralised location may well be ill advised though. Or these shops will be closed due to unrest. (See France and think 2010 riots). And I think that's more keep your head down and keep the curtains closed type stuff. People will loot before they go for households.

British government ‘complacent about food as a national security matter’ | Food & drink industry | The Guardian

Anyone care for another epidemic? Not a human one, but one affecting our livestock (ruminants). Bluetongue is having quite an outbreak at the moment. It's a viral disease carried by midges and has been spreading in the UK this year so that there are now 2,579 cases of bluetongue serotype 3 (BTV-3) or unspecified serotype in the UK in the 2026 to 2027 bluetongue season. A case is defined as a premises on which bluetongue has been confirmed, based on risk and following laboratory or clinical diagnosis. A map of the outbreak shows just how widespread this is.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/4867f4e1f680415898482df7aabb703d/page/Page

For perspective, in previous years cases were far lower.

2025-2026 season had 348 cases.
2024-2025 season had 163 cases.
2023-2024 season had 126 cases.
Prior to this 15 yrs went by without any cases since the previous outbreak in the 2007-2008 season.

What effect does it have on the animals concerned (cows, sheep, goats)? It's not necessarily fatal, it can be, but it's more the effect on the wellbeing of the animal and can result in miscarriages, infertility, reduction in milk yield, lameness, facial swelling, mouth ulcers, bluish tint to mucous membranes. It's worse in sheep than any of the other species, they have the highest mortality rate.

You can't catch it from eating meat, drinking milk or contact with infected animals, and it can't spread to your pets, but it can spread to other populations such as deer, llamas, alpaca and bison.

Vaccination is available, and the onset of winter does help as midges die off but it can resurface again in the spring. This is yet another disease that has been affected by climate change as seasons are warmer and midges more plentiful.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/bluetongue-latest-situation

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-steps-up-bluetongue-response

This feels like yet another piece in the jigsaw of things that are going awry at the moment.

Really? Your threads were deleted? I don't actually believe that. There was a whole group of us on the peppers board talking about cvid long before it was being talked about in the mainstream media and none of the threads were deleted. In fact MN gave us a whole Ebola topic before we even had the peppers topic! They were completely happy for us to discuss things and talk about resilience planning.

Anyway - it's clear that the current resilience of the country is poor but at least people seem to be listening at last. It's all over the press.

I have to admit, I'm more than a little dubious about the plague story. We can treat the plague. I suspect they've been fucking about with it to weaponise it.

Just another thing to add to the ever increasing list of problems facing the world.

I'm glad the bombers are fucking off from Fairford tbh. Good riddance. I don't buy the threat to US servicemen story. I think it is political - but whichever way, I'm fed up of the US putting a big target on the UKs back then treating us like shit.
As for the plague story, well, that's the thing. Pneumonic plague can be treated if given antibiotics within the first 24 hours- but all bets are off if its been tinkered with.

It’s the actual kit. There’s a lack of a perimeter and too easy to access.

It makes sense to not hang around to find out what Iran can do via people here.

But the plague doesn't spread easily human to human? Its spread by flea bites. Not really a good bio weapon.

H5N1 is still ( in my very limited and now dated knowledge) a big threat. That or Ebola type thing where a highly lethal but poor transmission in humans making the leap to high transmission. There was a lot of conspiracy around covid which at the start was just based on very poor knowledge of viruses and very basic evolution.

Im not worried about bio weapons. Look back at covid. Now everyone can see how quickly that mutated. Anything that reproduces fast, mutates fast. You create say a virus bio weapon hybrid because you also create the vaccine? It will evolve away from your vaccine in weeks or months. It travels the world's in weeks and ends back on your shores mutated just as fast. No one is that stupid. Unless we work out how to stop viruses mutating ( any cell devision can mutated hence cancer). Im not overly worried. Its more likely that bird flu will jump the species barrier naturally eventually given how many birds we mass farm worldwide and how human intensive that is.

I went for a job at a well known gov run lab. They look at bacterial diseases. I didn't take the job as it scared the shit out of me, but i assure the the UK does not develop bio weapons, so there was other reasons for research. Therefore its possible other countries do the same. Research on know deadly pathogens.

But the plague doesn't spread easily human to human?

You're thinking of the Bubonic form which spreads via flea bites. The pneumonic form of the plague does spread via droplets in the air so is very contagious if you have close contact. There are already protocols in place as part of biowarfare prep, I posted a bit earlier about those, plague was one of the threats along with anthrax.

I had a terrible thought a while ago re the plague and Russia story, that Russia is planning to use the plague to set up a disabling pandemic situation and this is them laying down the back story. "It was an accident guv we reported it at the time it was some daft bint in a lab who dropped a test tube. Not us. Not our fault, noooo." Salisbury cathedral spire viewing anyone?

I freely admit to having a vivid imagination and a faintly paranoid disposition.

Except the lab is in a remote part of Siberia so getting the infection out into the wild would take some effort! I do find it ironic it's called the 'anti-plague' institute, seems more like a place where they might investigate how to alter the bacterium, not figure out how to contain it (which we already know how to do!).

When it comes to what the Russian government gets up to, I'm pretty paranoid as well, especially after the Salisbury poisonings.