Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

Journalist to Trump: You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they have not agreed to that.

Trump: They agreed. You know why? Because I said, “You agree.” That's why.

God complex.

Zelenskyy noted that everyone was talking about diesel but forgetting about grain. He added that there would be an agricultural crisis in two to three months.

Tough winter ahead.

Brett Eriksson AT BrettErikson28
Today’s Ansar Allah (Houthi) strikes on Riyadh don’t take place in a vacuum…

Just yesterday, the major WPC Energy Congress began. This is a FLAGSHIP event for Riyadh.

But even BEFORE today’s strikes took place, executives from BP, Shell, and Exxon all canceled their attendance.

Surely even more will abandon the event now after even more strikes on the Saudi capital.

This isn’t JUST “an embarrassment” for MBS, it’s now actively losing him investment dollars that Saudi relies on to fund their reckless vanity projects.

Jason Jay Smart (Kyiv Post)
Open warfare inside the Kremlin as Putin’s cash reserves run dry.

Hit with an $86B deficit and $136B in toxic loans, oligarchs are refusing to fund the war, forcing the FSB to shake down private enterprise.

Russia is now spiraling into complete, permanent, and catastrophic ruin.

Richard Stengel AT Stengel
"Zelensky better damn well stop," the President said. "He's making problems for our farmers, our ranchers."
The two people making problems for farmers & ranchers are (1) Putin by invading Ukraine in the first place, and (2) Trump by invading Iran. Mr. Zelensky has nothing to do with it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6d7q5z17gp5o
The Ranchers Story: Heartland Trump

Senator Jerry Moran (GOP Kansas)
Sanctions on Russian fuel exports have, for the last several years, deprived funding for Putin’s unjust war in Ukraine and provided leverage to help end it. We should be tightening sanctions further, not undercutting them by allowing the import of Russian diesel and risking erasing our leverage, damaging our credibility with allies, and emboldening our adversaries.

Earlier today:

Senator Jerry Moran
Happy #NationalFarmersDay to the hardworking men and women in Kansas who work tirelessly to put food on our tables. Today and every day, I am grateful for the farmers in Kansas and across the country who are answering the noble call to feed our world.

Interesting to see his domestic focus as well as his comments on Ukraine.

Over night Trump
Trump: "I will be the last Republican president"

China and Russia aren’t helping Iran, and that if they were, “we would know about it very fast.”
This isn't what the Defense Secretary has said.

WSJ: Iran warns its forces will invade neighboring countries when the US renews the war and will target US personnel more aggressively.

Petrol shortages reported in Bali. Many petrol stations have closed, with long queues at those those that remain open. This is apparently due to 'delays' to fuel tankers.

What on earth was the context for "I will be the last Republican president"? Is that the whole thing? God he's nuts.

He said the same a month ago

@RedToothBrush you said yesterday that sometimes you feel you may be talking into a void.
I just wanted to let you know that what you post and the time you spend is very much appreciated and has been for a long time.
Thank you

Trump has been saying he will be the last Republican President for months. Here's one from July
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-last-gop-president-terminate-filibuster-12094295

GeoInsider
🇳🇱 Netherlands’ Albert Heijn remains affected by a major digital security incident, with its website, apps and customer service still offline and supermarket shelves increasingly empty.

Multiple distribution centres have been disrupted, leaving stores struggling to replenish supplies, particularly fruit, vegetables and dairy products. In one store in Lelystad, only three of the usual 20 pallets were delivered.

Online grocery orders and home deliveries remain suspended, including previously placed orders. Employees have also reportedly been attaching price stickers to products because electronic shelf labels are displaying incorrect prices.

The disruption extends beyond the Netherlands, affecting other Ahold Delhaize chains, including Stop & Shop, Giant Food, Hannaford and Food Lion in the United States.

The company at the heart of the French Fridges is called Danfoss. They operate system around Europe (Inc the UK) and in the US, but the vast majority are in France.

Hence why the French are now saying they think other countries affected.

• Danfoss confirms that the majority of affected equipment consists of obsolete models (AK-SM800, AK-SC355…) that are at end-of-life, without security updates for a long time.

A merchant ship has sunk after drones hit two vessels off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, Prime Minister Rumen Radev has said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn06w5x9g25o

He indicated Russia was suspected of the attacks and that he had called in its ambassador.

Online grocery orders and home deliveries remain suspended, including previously placed orders

Y'see people, this is a very good reason to prep!

It seems that the vulnerability at Danfoss was known about. I'm seeing slightly conflicting reports on this - some saying there was a patch available and others saying the models affected were no longer supported. This vulnerability was publicised due to a patch for something being available so it wasn't a sophisticated hack.

I suspect both are true tbh. Oldest fridges had no patches, newer models with patches available but not maintained and installed.

So I'm guessing older stores are more likely to be affected (I'm guessing these are likely less profitable stores serving less well off / more rural areas).

It will be interesting to see what follows through on this, because if there was a patch but companies hadn't installed it, the liable and insurance implications change.

This post seems to explain the situation with depressing plausibility: https://x.com/IAviateur/status/2109672511772176824?s=20

"Each player did what was reasonable within their scope. No one committed a clear-cut error. And the result? Millions of euros in merchandise destroyed across three countries."

Luckily I don't, less luckily we need oil to properly heat out house (we have electric radiators in most rooms and an air pump in the lounge but this time of year we need the oil boiler on to properly heat and get rid of the damp)

Also glad I never connected my fridge freezer to the wifi even though it can be connected, mostly because I thought why the fuck would I ever need to connect my fridge to the internet? What possible benefit is there? And now its clear there's a considerable downside (not that my fridge will be a key target for hackers...)

That's somewhat reassuring

Turning back to the original post of prepping, I’ve started to think longer term. I’ve a bit of a tinned store, pasta, rice etc, plenty of loo roll, and some basic meds.
All that will keep anyone going for the short term, but what if things were to carry on, maybe even indefinitely?
As living rurally, we have a private water supply from a chalk aquifer so pretty safe, albeit it needs power for the pump to work. We have a generator, but that requires fuel. We have a plentiful supply of wood, but only an open fire in the sitting room. We have a barbecue but only so much charcoal, or gas for the other one. Same with candles and tea lights and rechargeable. Everything has a finite life.
I already have seeds for next year’s veg, as I’m lucky enough to have a large garden. We’ve a new orchard so plenty of fruit to come. But people without can steal all that. We’ve a dairy on the next door farm and cows will need to be milked but will they need supplementary feedstuff and need to be culled if none available. There’s not much meat on a milker!
This is all off the top of my head. We have guns and ammunition and deer and game birds around….
Just how would you survive if this country is catapulted into severe crisis. Even if , like us, you’re equipped to cope, it really wouldn’t be long before real problems emerge.
Scary thought….

Their website also says that they can’t say when the problem will be resolved!

Zelenskyy via twitter this morning
Since last evening and up to now, the Russians have attacked Ukraine with more than a hundred different weapons – jet-powered drones, loitering munitions, and ballistic missiles. A significant portion of these strike assets were shot down. But unfortunately, not all of them.

An ordinary residential building was destroyed in Kharkiv; the rescue operation continued virtually all night as first responders searched for people under the rubble. Four people were killed in this strike on the building in Kharkiv. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. In Kharkiv alone, 41 people were injured in just one evening. There was also a particularly vile ballistic missile strike on Kyiv – five missiles that hit civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, we received no early warning from our partners about this strike. Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives, and this is one of the most critical issues. This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed – when there is an early warning about ballistic missiles.

Ukraine has not carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries or the energy sector in general for the two days since the American President announced an energy ceasefire. But Russia did not heed the American President. During this time, the Russians have attacked both our energy facilities and our critical infrastructure, sending absolutely clear signals that they have no intention of refraining from strikes on Ukraine. Nineteen regions of our country have come under attack in these two days alone. Our position remains unchanged: Ukraine is ready for reciprocal steps toward de-escalation, and effective pressure on Russia is needed to make de-escalation happen. Wars end when the aggressor realizes that it cannot prolong the war.

Global pressure on Russia contributes to exactly that – bringing peace closer. But direct or indirect support for Russia, slowing down assistance to Ukraine, and making it harder to protect lives against ballistic missiles will certainly not help bring peace. Everyone needs peace. A strong America, a strong Europe, and strong partners are needed. Thank you to everyone who is truly helping!

My bold

Confirmation that the USA is no longer a partner and can not be relied on.

In addition to petrol shortages, Indonesia had a massive power outage yesterday also affecting communications and water supply.

Note Ukraine is going to have massive issues with water if things don't improve quickly.

Awful!

Not connected either, we're a bit behind the times! Have a gas combi boiler with a thermostat in the house. Since we're both at home there seems little point. I didn't even know you could connect your fridge freezer!