Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

Cyberattack against French supermarket chain, to heat up fridges to ruin the food.
Creative.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/french-supermarket-chain-intermarche-hit-by-cyberattack-150-stories-targeted-2026-10-12/

The cyber attacks on supermarkets in Europe really show how vulnerable everything is.
Whether the origins are Russia or China or independent saboteurs or what is beside the point. Anything could happen anywhere this winter, the world is so interdependent and so fractious.

It makes you wonder why the other factors that kicked didnt alert the owners. The staff said the shop was hot when they went in, so why not heating alert? The more we automate everything and put it online the more vulnerable everything is to this. Presumably they didn't think it was a critical system to be hacked. But even if you security is super hot, the hackers are always smarter. So it ever was. But there could have more fail safes.

Is it wrong that my main worry with the French supermarkets is being able to buy Orangina? I am supposed to be going to France before Christmas and the UK version tastes vile these days.

The French supermarket story is the lead article on R4 4pm news, followed by a story about govt minister saying breach of UK's cyber defences 'likely, if not inevitable'.
So that's nice

But if you don’t want a smart meter for fear of being hacked your stupid 🙃 I give you French fridges and freezers being hacked 😬

Ever since the fridge story broke, I have found myself smiling contentedly at my non-wifi fridge freezer and washing machine.

How many people have online thermostats these days? I do myself. If someone hacks hive or nest or similar, there doesn’t need to be a power cut to shut off people’s heating.

i wonder if the french hackers were students?

We do, but if we take the individual radiator thermostats off, the radiators revert to on, timed with the boiler. So we wouldnt be able to control individual rooms, but at least can have on or off with our boiler.
It is yet another thing to think about isnt it.
I need to swap my bulb in my bedroom lamp. I've lost control of it. I'd programmed it to do sunsets and sunrises, but its all out of sync and fixing it will take ages. Ridiculous problem to have.

Reuters reporting that Poland faces delays in US Patriot missile deliveries because of the war with Iran

Which only puts pressure on Poland to find other solutions and stick by Ukraine because it can no longer rely on the US. This follows absolutely every single position on defence Poland has put out publicly this year.

The Council of the EU is set to discuss restrictions to Russian passport holders so they no longer are free to move within Schengen without additional checks without additional visa requirements.

Marak Meissner AT marakmeissner (polish military analysist according to his profile)
What happened in Russia... well, it turns out that the Yandex Pay service was linked to the biggest non-cash exchanges, including G-a-r-a-n-t-e-x [RTB: hyphens inserted to avoid MN zapping. Henceforce to be referred to as Gx] Yes, that Gx which, two days before the October 7 attack on Israel, transferred $95 million USD to Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and that group was settling accounts with Hamas. The same Gx that's used for transactions involving GRU and FSB assets in Europe, as noted in several intelligence reports from EU and US agencies.
That's why there might be such "outages on the lines" in the operations of trolls and assets
It'll take some time before they fix this
Keeping my fingers crossed for a drone strike on the next Yandex data centers.

Reply
Yandex now has only one small operational center left, but the large centers of RosTelekom and Selectel remain untouched.
Strikes on RosTelekom in particular could be painful for the banking system.

I'm doing a bit of follow up on the above because I wasn't sure of the sources.

https://x.com/Pocahontas_new/status/2109639401999679734
The BLEEP Exchange Moving Money for Criminal Gangs, Rich Russians and a Hamas-Linked Terror Group
Gx’s international pipeline helps defy Treasury sanctions by channeling rubles to BLEEP to dollars. Customers line up with bags of cash.

Link to a twitter account which links to a WSJ article from Oct 2023. I'd put the direct link but fear MN would autozap it! Please excuse having to do this or search for the above title of a newsarticle on Google for the WSJ!

Gx had been subject to sanctions from the EU, US and other jurisdictions for some time but Japan only introduced sanctions this month, so they are still operational.

There's another really good article you can read in full linked here from 2024 about ties to international crime. https://x.com/Martinlaineolen/status/1767935774182232076
The article is from the international consortium of investigative journalists. You can also find it by googling
"Firm related to sanctioned BLEEP exchange BLEEP is a partner of Moscow gang leader and has links to Kremlin-controlled Rosneft"

A business with a convicted gang leader and has ties to Rosneft, the Kremlin-tied oil firm, a new probe shows.

The investigation, by Eesti Ekspress and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, reveals that within weeks of one of the exchange’s three founding shareholders dying under suspicious circumstances, another was replaced in corporate records by a shareholder linked to Rosneft, the Kremlin-controlled oil company.

Based on court and corporate records and a review of transactions on the Gx exchange, the investigation also finds that Gx already sanctioned by the U.S. for moving money for criminals and later associated with a terror group close to Hamas, was used by other designated terror groups, including Hezbollah, as well as drug gangs in Ukraine and other criminal actors.

The revelation that a Gx affiliate has Russian government and criminal ties raises the concern that the Kremlin is tolerating the still-thriving exchange or even using it for its own ends, analysts said. The findings are likely to add fuel to calls for others in the global BLEEP-industry to stop doing business with Gx.

Richard Sanders, a U.S.-based digital forensics analyst who has worked for Ukrainian law enforcement and intelligence agencies on multiple BLEEP investigations involving Gx, said that the Russian government has an interest in allowing Gx to stay in business.

“The intelligence value that can be obtained by the Russian government far outweighs their desire to prosecute criminals that by and large profit off of what the government considers to be unfriendly nations,” Sanders said, pointing to Gx’s links to cybercrime and online drugs sales also detailed by the U.S. Treasury sanctions designation. “Gx has dark[net] markets and ransomware groups as top clients.”

Interesting I also stumbled upon the point that Russia just started it's roll out of the Digital Ruble. This isn't non-cash. It's a third system separate to cash and banks. Russians can now be paid salaries and benefits directly in Digital Rubles. This started with the finance ministry this month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_ruble
Which wouldn't be ideal timing if the entire internet in Russia decided to go down.

It wouldnt be beyond the thinking of European Intelligence to do this - with Ukraine as a front. As the US has less leverage against Ukraine, Europe gains it. And as the US applies pressure on Europe they need Ukraine more. It's mutual interest and aligned goals. As oil issues and an inability to affect the situation in the Middle East through force increase and the risks of aligning with US policy increase, the attractiveness of trying to squeeze Islamist extremists by other methods becomes more important and maybe much more effective.

It marks an escalation point, if this is all happening though.

These shrinking alignment goals and linked consequences only leads me to think that the Ukrainian war against Russia is no longer separate from the war in the Middle East. Which if you are paying attention to Trump and his position on Ukraine and oil, makes complete sense too. And if that's the case and European nations are increasingly sucked into Europe whilst the US gets sucked into the Middle East and then lashes out at Ukraine as well as the hybrid sabotage attacks on European soil, it's getting increasingly difficult to say we are at peace. I think there's a growing recognition of this and language is being carefully managed to avoid more escalation.

I say all this whilst also taking the time to point out the following:

Adnan Hussain MP (independent)
When will we have the courage to face the reality? In deprived, former industrial towns, predominently in the north, Brexit was a protest from communities left behind for decades. Every election since has sent the same message, surely we can't blame it all on Putin? When will we stop looking for conspiracies and bogeymen and start listening to the people that feel like they have been failed, ignored, and left behind.

It's really important not to lose sight of. It's absolutely true.

People did vote for change out of desperation and poverty. Blaming it ALL on Putin, fails to understand what makes people listen to certain messages more and what underlying social pressures there are that exist. Putin (et al) could ever exploit pre-existing social cracks. He couldn't create them from nothing. If we don't do something about these perceived domestic injustices, we have no hope in term in international issues because our domestic situation will always bite us on the backside in the process. Wars are won and lost on domestic support. Ask Vietnam vets all about this.

And that post was a bloody effort and a half!

DH is a senior programmer.

The stuff he has come across daily over the years in all sorts of firms and organisations you Think Should Know Better is terrifying. He thinks it's got worse since people started to write code using AI as people don't really understand what they are writing in the same way. You also have to consider how much coding is outsourced to outside the UK.

Our 'cyber defences' are technically not just government stuff too but also everything related to national security - which includes supermarkets - as the French Fridges indeed demonstrate.

I do think the way this is heating up, the risk is only increasing which is totally reflected in the tone of official communications like this one from this Minister.

GeoInsider
UPDATE: 🇳🇱 Operations have come to a complete standstill at several Albert Heijn distribution centres in the Netherlands following the cybersecurity incident affecting the supermarket chain, raising concerns about possible shortages and empty shelves.

Albert Heijn CEO Margaret Versteden-van Duijn confirmed to NOS that several distribution centres were forced to stop working after the company shut down IT systems as a precaution.

The disruption is now affecting deliveries to supermarkets, particularly fresh products such as fruit and vegetables. Frozen products are expected to remain more widely available because they are supplied through different distribution centres.

The company warns that shelves could begin to empty if the disruption continues, although the impact will vary between stores. It remains unclear how many distribution centres are affected or when operations will resume.

Online grocery deliveries and customer services have also been disrupted. Delivery drivers reportedly lost access to the app used to manage addresses and delivery schedules.

Electronic shelf labels are still displaying last week’s promotional prices, while personalised discounts and digital loyalty programmes remain unavailable.

Albert Heijn says customers who miss personal discounts will be compensated and should keep their receipts.

The company has not confirmed whether hackers gained access to its systems, and investigations are ongoing.

Give me a good reason why French Students would be targeting French Supermarket Freezers AND Dutch Supermarket Distribution and Electronic Prices?

I don't believe it's a coincidence for supermarkets to be targeted in multiple countries on the same day especially after the Russian internet has just been kerrsplatted.

What's the logic that they'd go for Supermarkets rather than another target.

The whole point is this is critical infrastructure and logistics which is where we'd expect State supported sabotage.

The Dutch headlines are warning of empty shelves due to the distribution centres problems, which is of course a surefire way to make sure it happens (who here remembers the UK in 2000?)

Isn't it very like the Co-op issue we had?

With the Dutch one it’s hard to be sure at this stage. There have been two high-profile hacks in the Netherlands in the past few years, one of which was the B2C telecoms company Odido. That was just aimed at getting customer details in the hope of extorting the company. (Odido didn’t pay and everyone’s details ended up on the Dark Web).

Albert Heijn has enormous amounts of customer data, not only buying habits but addresses/phone numbers of their delivery clients.

That too!

It must be costing the company a fortune. Especially as they’ve promised to honour all the loyalty card discounts that aren’t working at the moment (as in, they’re going to be swamped with customers coming back for their money later on).

You know when you start to look at things and it raises more questions than it answers?

Well...

Co-op, M & S and Harrods attacks were all linked to a group called Dragonforce who claimed responsibility.

So you look at who they were...

DragonForce Malaysia started as a pro-Palestinian hacktivist group in 2021 when it focused on politically motivated cyber operations, targeting government agencies and organisations across the Middle East and Asia. It gained more notoriety this year when it announced in an underground forum post, in March 2025, that it was re-branding as a ‘cartel’.

In the end four people were arrested by the National Crime Agency.

The arrests were supported by officers from the West Midlands organised crime unit and the East Midlands special operations unit. Those arrested were a 17-year-old British boy from the West Midlands, a 19-year-old Latvian man from the West Midlands, a 19-year-old British man from London and a 20-year-old British woman from Staffordshire.

Yes you’ve certainly brought up a whole lot of questions for me!

One incident that the media seems to have dropped but which I still don’t understand is this one - luggage abandoned at 4 different Dutch railway stations on the same day. Needless to say, it caused chaos.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/09/five-arrested-after-luggage-left-unattended-at-railway-stations/

(Sorry for the very basic link, it’s all I can find in English, and also for banging on about the Netherlands today! The trains there just seem to be in such a mess and constantly targeted - to what end?)

NATO warships dock at the port of Aberdeen amid large scale military exercise.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/7127454/gallery-nato-warships-dock-at-port-of-aberdeen/

Ships from Portugal, Canada and Germany were among those in harbour on Friday

Navy ships from a number of NATO countries berthed at the Port of Aberdeen on Friday amid a major war games exercise.

The 2,000-person training has involved practice runs of “allied crisis-response operations” in the High North and North Atlantic region.

Titled Exercise Strike Warrior, the training started on September 28.

It has involved troops, planes and ships from the UK, Netherlands, Canada, Germany, Norway, the USA and others.

And it has been the largest test of all arms of the UK Commando Force in about 15 years.

How military exercises help the UK and its allies prepare for a future war.

https://theconversation.com/how-military-exercises-help-the-uk-and-its-allies-prepare-for-a-future-war-293374

Plus now we are being pushed by Burnham to return to the EU, in the light of 'Russian interference', yet the same Andy Burnham is planning to get rid of Photo ID for voting! Surely that makes voting interference far easier? Perhaps he wants to be sure he gets re-elected by shady means if need be!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/oct/12/burnham-urge-mps-embrace-closer-ties-with-eu

Supermarket Sweep
France's supermarket fridge hack has affected more stores than previous thought.

France is officially stating that it fears other EU states may be hit.

They have counted

• At least 300 Intermarché and Netto stores
• Around 100 Coopérative U outlets
• 80 Carrefour supermarkets
• Around 30 Monoprix stores
• Several E. Leclerc stores

The Betrayal of Ukraine
Ukraine is saying it's been cut off from US intelligence sharing. The US provided 3 to 5 minutes warning of incoming missiles. This was enough to sound a warning. Tonight a number of missiles have hit Kyiv without the sirens.

Ukraine has also announced that it has attacked Russia for the first time using domestically produced Ballistic missiles which are already in mass production.

The US's changing position is leading to other policy shifts from Ukraine:

On Zelenskyy's twitter earlier today
I don’t believe the volume of diesel Russia will export will affect the price. Moreover, we see that they can export from 300,000 to 500,000 tons a month today. Meanwhile, global consumption stands at 120 million tons a month. What kind of impact can that have? I don’t think it would have any. If some people think otherwise, so be it.

So I believe there are entirely different reasons behind these actions. If this is the approach, then why isn’t America making a “diesel deal” with Ukraine? Let Ukraine propose a “diesel deal.” We do have influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not. If that’s the case, then let’s do it.

Electricity is what matters to us. That’s clear. If we can be guaranteed protection for our power system, then we will not strike Russia’s diesel infrastructure in response. Electricity is first and foremost about helping people – keeping their lights on. It also means helping Europe. Everyone knows that we are connected to the European power grid. And if our energy infrastructure is not being destroyed, we can help some countries that are facing shortages by supplying them with cheaper electricity.

So, yes, let’s sign a corresponding “diesel deal” with the President of the United States.

From remarks at the Warsaw Security Forum.

Zelenskyy interview with Fox News tonight (!)
Zelenskyy: Ukraine did not attack any energy facilities in Russia yesterday or last night, because an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was announced.

We did not hit back. Russia attacked our gas stations, energy infrastructure and other things.

Zelenskyy: If Russia does not want an energy ceasefire, Ukraine is open to an agricultural ceasefire.

Russia is blocking the Black Sea, and countries in Africa and Asia need our wheat and agricultural products, but we cannot deliver them.

Zelenskyy: Diesel prices do not depend on whether Ukraine strikes Russian diesel.

Everybody understands what they depend on: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Our strikes do not move that price.

Trump tonight
"Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelenskyy does"

Joint Statement about RAF Fairfield
The United States of America, the United Kingdom, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners.

We recognize the United Kingdom’s attribution of Iran’s involvement in the incident at RAF Fairford on 27 September. The UK has also concluded this event demonstrates the IRGC’s continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors.

This comes soon after the recent campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists, and U.S. interests, claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI).

Any attempt by Iran to threaten, silence, intimidate, harass, harm, or coerce people on our territories through proxies or any other means is unacceptable. Anyone who conducts hostile activities on behalf of Iran, or any other state, should know that we will take action to identify, investigate, disrupt, and prosecute these acts. Iran should be in no doubt that we are united and remain committed to safeguarding our sovereignty and strengthening our international coordination, bolstering our national resilience, protecting our communities, and ensuring that those responsible are held to account.

End Text.

Saudi Arabia
There apparently is an enormous fire in Riyadh tonight. Reuters has reported that at least THREE impacts have taken place in Riyadh. Other war monitoring accounts say it's 5 - 8. Where they are is more significant...

Tom Sharpe (Daily Telegraph)
Missile strike in the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh

Israel
Haaretz is reporting that Israel is seeking Saudi Arabia's approval to join the campaign against the Yemenis, with the US mediating. Yesterday I was reading stuff slightly different to this - that the US was trying to get Israel to unilaterally attack the Yemenis without the US getting involved directly.

This is starting to all get out of control...

Roman Anin AT RomanAnin
1/ I spent 15+ years investigating Russian secret services and organized crime, and I know people who did business with Putin in 1990s St. Petersburg. Here's how they would describe the "diesel deal." You need two words of gangster slang: baryga and lokh.

2/ First the facts. Putin just raised Russia's 2027 military budget 27% to a record 17.1 trillion rubles (~$203bn). The FT reports Western intelligence is warning European defense CEOs of Russian assassination plots. Six European intelligence services are warning of escalating hybrid attacks. Nobody prepares for peace like this.

3/ Who benefits? The US gets a PR story for Trump before midterms — experts say the volumes won't move diesel prices. Russia gets billions for its war, sanctions relief, a wedge between the US and Europe, and a shot at disrupting US weapons and intel to Ukraine

4/ Now the slang. A baryga is a greedy businessman with no principles. Gangsters despise him but use him. The goal is to turn a baryga into a lokh — a mark who doesn't know the rules and gets played. That's Trump in Putin's eyes. And you don't sign a long-term deal with a lame-duck lokh. You use him.

5/ So Putin wins either way. If the deal keeps his lokh in power — great. If Trump loses, the deal has already done its job: inflamed US politics and tied Trump to Putin's crimes so he can't walk away. The goal is chaos, not peace. Full argument here:

I spent 15+ years investigating Russian secret services and organized crime. I know people who served with Putin in the KGB and sat in on his deals with St. Petersburg crime bosses. So let me explain the "diesel deal" the way they would — in gangster slang. Because that's the language Putin actually thinks in.

First, the facts.

Putin just raised Russia's 2027 military budget by 27% to a record 17.1 trillion rubles — about $203 billion. Who budgets that kind of money for a war they're about to end?

The FT reported yesterday that Western intelligence has warned the heads of European defense companies that Russia is plotting to assassinate them.

Since September, Tusk, Macron and the intelligence services of Poland, Czechia, Latvia, Belgium, France and Denmark have all warned that Russian hybrid attacks — including drone and missile strikes — will intensify in the coming months.

None of this looks like a country preparing for peace.

Who actually benefits?

🇺🇸 What the US gets: Every serious analysis I've read says the announced volumes won't move American diesel prices. This is a PR move for Trump before the midterms — a story about prices that will "very, very soon" come down once his friend Vladimir's tankers reach US shores, plus the chance to claim he ended another war (I've lost count). The only US "benefit" is Trump's rating.

🇷🇺 What Russia gets: billions of dollars to keep funding its genocidal war against Ukrainians. Sanctions relief. A demonstration of power to the rest of the world. A deeper rift between the US and its European allies. And a real chance to disrupt US weapons and intelligence flowing to Ukraine.

So what is Putin's actual goal?

Trump's disapproval is at record highs and polls show his party will most likely loose midterm elections. In less than a month his power will be badly weakened. Why would Putin sign a long-term peace deal with a lame duck whose signature will soon be scrutinized at best and annulled at worst?

He wouldn't. And here's where the slang comes in.

In the eyes of Putin and his siloviki, Trump is a baryga — a greedy, unscrupulous businessman who puts profit above law and principle. Gangsters despise barygas, but they love using them. The goal is always to turn a baryga into a lokh — a mark, an outsider who doesn't understand the rules of the underworld and gets played to serve the gang's interests.

By signing the diesel deal, Putin plays two scenarios at once:

A) The deal miraculously helps his lokh keep power — great.

B) The deal changes nothing, the baryga loses the midterms — but by then it has already done its job: inflamed US political tensions and acted as arson inside the American system.

Putin knows that the majority of Americans support Ukraine. He knows that by signing, Trump draws unprecedented criticism, including from his own party. And he knows a baryga won't give up power easily, because he will have to answer for everything he did in office — this deal included. That's classic gangster/secret-service method: tie a man to your organization, make him a partner in your crimes, so he can't walk away.

Pouring more oil — diesel, in this case — onto the most explosive fault lines of American politics, raising the stakes for Trump and pushing him past the point of no return serves Putin far better than a peace deal that could be voided within months.

Remember: Putin's goal in the West is chaos, not peace.

Michael Weiss AT michaeldweiss
By @anneapplebaum: "This looks, instead, like something very different: an abrupt, Hail Mary attempt to force Ukraine to surrender and to save the Russian economy, perhaps in order to finally complete the multiple business deals that the Russians are known to have discussed with American negotiators and others in Trump’s orbit"
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/10/trump-ukraine-putin-fuel/688974/